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Sunday, January 13, 2008
Salena Zito :: Townhall.com Columnist
The certainty of political uncertainty
by Salena Zito
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PORTSMOUTH, N.H. -- Not much is certain in politics. Not exit polls, forecasts or punditry. Yet one thing that is for certain, coming out of New Hampshire, is that the 2008 presidential race remains very much up in the air.

“Look at what has happened so far," says George F. Will, the conservative columnist. "The very idea that money is all-powerful was struck down with Romney in Iowa and New Hampshire; the idea that organization is all-powerful was struck down by Huckabee.

"And with the Democrats we learned that the Clintons can top momentum in just about eight hours," he added. “So, in other words, just about anything can and will happen.”

Will's comments speak to not just the results in New Hampshire -- where the Barack Obama-Hillary Clinton race came to a stunning (mostly to pundits) conclusion -- but, in a larger sense, to the entire field of presidential candidates. No clear winners have attached themselves to either party’s base.

And that just may be a good thing.

“Change” was the overriding theme in the Granite State. That is, until it came to the winners and losers making their primary-night speeches. From second-placers Mitt Romney and Obama to first-placers John McCain and Clinton, they all avoided using that much-hyped word.

That is probably a good thing, too. At some point -- and the earlier, the better -- this race must become about something.

Political science professor Matt Lebo says to look for more scrutiny on the substance of Obama’s credentials -- especially from the Clintons. “You have already seen that begin with Bill Clinton’s attacks here in New Hampshire right before election night,” he says.

Apparently, those attacks worked. So did emotion: Hillary showed some and, based on exit polls, women in her age-range bought it, in large part because they saw it as a reflection of themselves.

Hillary’s “experience” tag line may also resurrect itself. On New Hampshire’s primary day, the Iranians were reported to have played a dangerous cat-and-mouse game with the U.S. Navy; Clinton’s vote on Iraq may have been on some voters’ minds, providing one more push forward for the New York senator.

Many political soothsayers moan that the Republican Party is in disarray, but why don’t they consider that state of uncertainty a good thing for the GOP?

Many people apply a waiting-for-Reagan standard to each Republican candidate. But they have made Reagan too much of a myth for any candidate to reflect. None of the candidates is perfect. Neither was Reagan.

For now, the fight among Democrats largely is centered on front-runners Clinton and Obama; John Edwards is waiting in the wings, hoping he can win by default.

Among Republicans, Mike Huckabee won big in Iowa, Romney won small in Wyoming, but McCain scored the moral victory with his win in New Hampshire.

Another way to look at it: Romney lost two big races on which he staked a lot of money and organization; McCain could not pull out even a third place in Iowa; and Huckabee is just a one-hit wonder -- the perspective depends on the amount of cynicism you wish to employ.

Then there is the unknown variable of Rudy Giuliani. His strategy of waiting till Feb. 5’s Super-duper Tuesday is called unproven and risky but, frankly, it really is his only shot. And who knows, it may just work.

The promise of Fred Thompson has not materialized so far. But if his pitch for South Carolina and all things Dixie and Western works, well, he will rewrite political history.

Ron Paul’s presence in New Hampshire was interesting, but not politically important. Said one woman who drove up from Kentucky: “I am here for the party” -- the fun kind, not the political kind. That pretty much explains Ron Paul.

Being undecided walking into the voting booth was the norm in New Hampshire, not the exception. If that trend persists nationally, then there may not be any clear winner for either party at the end of primary season.

That would make 2008 the summer of the brokered conventions.

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About The Author
Salena Zito is a political analyst, reporter and columnist.
 
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Romney vs. McCain Jobs?

Zito Takes Will to School

... at least on this topic.

Over on another thread this morning, Mr. Will is belly-aching over the dim prospects for the Republicans in 2008. He's probably right. But he then shows his hand in the last two paragraphs by suggesting (in his typically oblique style) that the best, and perhaps only, hope is for Romney to win the nomination.

I like Romney. If my state's primary were today, I'd pull the lever for him. But I think Ms. Zito's got the far better analysis on this one: "Many political soothsayers moan that the Republican Party is in disarray, but why don’t they consider that state of uncertainty a good thing for the GOP?"

It's a long way to November. Whoever gets the Democrat Party nomination is going to have a long spring, summer and fall attempting to explain away failing policies (e.g., increase social security taxes) and asinine statements (e.g., "willing suspension of disbelief"). They may still win, but it certainly won't be a rout.

If the Republicans are having a hard time getting comfortable with any one candidate, I think it is for the very healthy reason that their focus is properly on the issues more than on the particular candidates.

Sam, please know that I also very much like Ron Paul. Although I won't be voting for him in any primary, I hope that he goes a long way in this race, gets a featured spot at the national convention or (if it's his druthers) mounts a credible third-party run (I think he'd pull just as many Democrat votes as Republican).

But I again agree with Ms. Zito. Dr. Paul's candidacy is mostly a "party" in the fun sense of the word. Unfortunately, too many of his supporters are buzz-killers to make this party one worth attending for very long.


Sam, Paul Hasn't A Chance
Paul is not going to win anything, including having people listen to his messages. A US president cannot live in the world that has developed from the acts of congress, Supreme Court, and presidents since FDR started turning us into a socialistic nation. Near-complete isolation as Paul describes just cannot happen and he should have adjusted (lied like the others) his viewpoints to something more fanciful and believable. A person cannot be considered a kook and win the presidency.

Life is a crap shoot
A few years ago I placed a large bet on the Dakar Rally Raid (cancelled this year because Al-Qaida threatened the insurance companies) that everyone thought was totally insane. Mitsubishi was pretty much guaranteed to win the race, and most of the herd bets were on Peterhansel. I bet my money on his teammate, Matsuoka. The Dakar Rally Raid lasts three weeks, and during the race Peterhansel led handily, shadowed by his teammate of course, which was his teammates job. I made some extra side bets with people who told me I was absolutely crazy and what a shame it was to take my money. I remained serene and took all the bets.

Peterhansel led all but the last half hour of the race. In the last half hour he broke a wheel and Matsuoka won. I took home about $35,000.

Life is a total crap shoot and there is no guarantee of anything, but you do not make the big money by running with the herd. And in a race that lasts longer than the attention span of the average politician or hockey fan, a lot depends on what else happens. A careful consideration of those things helps us to place our bets properly.

(I nearly won five figures on the Florida Panthers to win the Stanley Cup too -- it took 3 overtimes in the seventh game for the Rangers (I think) to beat them. The odds were 350 to 1 at the beginning of the season. Even their coach would not have takn that bet.)

Sam, and the paulists OPINION!

And they have yet to realize that it's ONLY THEIR OPINION!

And they're entitled to it... bully for them!

Zito is spot on! It's still an open field (except for paul) and who knows what will happen.


What I find interesting is that the paulists seem to have some underlying agenda... "... it's going to be ugly."

Wonder exactly what they mean by that?????




Sam: Pa-lease! The MSM can no longer

be in control???

Just how do you or the paulists think that's going to happen?

I didn't think if was right or fair that paul was not included in the NH debate.

However, after his showing in the debate in SC, it was obvious that FOX actually did pathetic paul a favor.

And, nothing has changed with paul. Regardless of all the money he claims to have raised, he still can't get out of single digits....


Anne
You are right about MSM. They know most of the US are sheep when it comes to elections. And this (funny polls) seems to be what the MSM do best.
I have a dream that one day real conservs will wake up, look hard at all the rino's running and just upchuck over it all.
P.S. If you see elko.mike tell him to click on my name and look @ my truck. I will be back in a bit.

http://www.immigrationshumancost.org/text/crimevictims.htm l
Free Ramos and Compean
If we can’t have HOME SECURITY first, the rest just won’t matter!
http://fred08.com/
http://vets4fred.net/
NO MORE HOLDING OUR NOSE AND PULLING THAT LEVER!!
VOTE FOR A REAL REPUBLICAN!! NO MORE RINO’s!!!

Doc: Will do!
.


Doc & Anne:
The beauty of the system is that voters still get to decide. Better yet is that with available information party bosses and MSM have far less influence in the process. Toss the play books it is a new day.

Doc, I clicked on your name and TH gave me an error to the effect that there was no suitable node for that operation??? Pictures, I want pictures.

GOP disarray?
If it is meant that the repubs don't agree on everything they are right,but the fact that you have rino's against cons is good for the party and the nation.The dems are all socialist,so they only diagree on how to take and waste more of our money

Anne ...

Ron Paul may break 10% in Michigan.

Don't forget...

10% of Michigan voters are dumb as hubcaps :)

Carlos
Well said! Ron Paul has been invited to be the cover boy for Fruit Loops cereal.

HILLARY'S SOPHIES CHOICE

.....ZITO ....

.....I think Republicans are missing the point here ...instead of knocking Obama as an empty suit ...they should be praising and supporting him as Hillarys opponent ...let me explain ...

.....When Obama announced his candidacy ...both whites and blacks were skeptical of his chances ...the race pimps Jess & Al stayed loyal to the Clintons as did many black leaders in SC ...

.....But when Obama won Iowa the paradigm shifted ...suddenly Obama was viable ...Jess changed camps while Al was keeping his power dry but if Obama wins SC ...which seems extremely likely ...Al has to join in to keep his followers ...

.....Now here come the juicy part ...the Clintons are not going to roll over without a fight ...but how do they attack a black man without appearing to be racist? ...signs are already beginning to surface that this is a ticklish situation for the Clintons ...

.....This becomes a lose/lose for Hillary ...if she wins the nomination by trashing Obama what happens to the millions of black votes the Clintons and the Democrats always depended upon? ...if blacks perceive that the Clintons used racial tactics to win will they still vote for Hillary? ...

.....This election might put the Democrats in jeopardy of loosing their lock on the black vote ...this would be of great benefit to the Republican Party ...maybe JC Watts could be lured into coming out of retirement to take the VP slot for a possible Thompson/ or Romney/ ticket? ...

.....Go Obama Go .....COLOSSUS

cynisism certainly describes ...
me! The fact that all these candidates have "handlers" telling them which way the wind is blowing at any given moment and what they need to say or do to take the best advantage of it, makes it impossible to get a handle on what abilities the candidates themselves actually possess.

I think politics, for folks like me, is becoming a "Love/Hate" relationship. The more I learn, the more I distrust politicians, right and left!

I have written off two "Rs" so far, that would be McCain (might as well be a Dem) and Huckabee (the good hearted preacher man) and might as well make that three considering Paul is just too goofy to be taken seriously.

Between their handlers, the MSM (including Fox News), all of the pundits and a large portion of Americans whose apathy prevents them from making an informed decision, all these candidates can pretty much play "rope a dope" with us in the voting booths!

It is my nagging desire...
to control my own destiny that prevents me from believing that government should be allowed to come into my personal life and dictate the choices I make.

I am not willing to give up my pursuit of happiness in order to control someone else's. Government has shown no proficiency in the areas of our lives that determine equality or success (by their measure of it, not mine).

Whether it is the war on poverty or drugs, the rearing of children by parents (whether they be good or bad), and many other areas where people make choices that turn out to be wrong, caring human beings are better problem solvers than government can ever be.

Yes, government needs to do things that maintain order and national security and that does mean the need for laws but not coming into our homes to manage what we teach our children or what our thermostat is set on, what we can eat or who we choose to share our lives with.

Yes, I believe, as I think most of us do, that my moral standards and the way I live my life is good and doing no harm to anyone else and therefore wish that everyone agreed with me but I know that is not reality.

Basically I just want government to provide only the basic needs of it's citizens in the areas of national security and sovereignty, provide help for those who cannot help themselves, assistance for those who can help themselves if given a hand up without addicting them to the hand out an not over tax me to the point that I become discouraged. Optimism is necessary to face each new day and that requires, at least for me, control of my own destiny. If I screw it up, then so be it, I will try again.

Farmer's Wife/ Baseballdoc
Good morning Farmer's wife. Your comments are well said, and I so tatally agree with you!
--------------------------------------------------BBD
After reading an article by News Max this morning, plus an article on Michelle Malkin, I don't want to take the chance of Obama being the next POTUS. According to News Max...
A close friend of Obama, Zalfin Adi, said that Obama is a Muslim. He did go to a Mosque.
His first grade teacher at Catholic School said he was a registered muslim and had a Muslim nick name.
In third grade he transferred to public school and registered as Muslim. Muslim students attended weekly religion on Islam.
In "Dreams of my Father" Obama describes studying the Koran and attending a Muslim school.

According to Michelle Malkin, he mentioned that in reading the Koran he has come up with an idea for having companies volunering their "change" to the government, on top of all the taxes. Al Sharpton, and Jesse Jackson, are all for it, and someone else is wanting to make a coin with a change slogan, and Barak's picture on it.

Don't know about you, but this scares me much more than Hillary, or Edwards.

Big Correction
The story about Barak Obamas new "change" tax is on GunnyG's site Noliberalspin.com.
I said I read it on Michelle Malkin, but that was from Gunny.Sorry Gunny and all.

Racism A-plenty: To baseballdoc
RE "how do they attack a black man without appearing racist": Too late to ask, as plenty of black voters have already turned away from the Clintons in response to Bill's "Obama's story is a fairy tale" and Hillary's crack about a president (a white one) having had to pass Martin Luther King's work into law---this was heard as dismissive of Dr King (was covered this morning on Tim Russert). And when Hillary said Obama "does the spade work" they heard that too---her interesting choice of words.

And the Clintons aren't alone. Karl Rove wrote a pro-Hillary article in the WSJ on January 11 in which he called Hillary Clinton "warm", "powerful", and "real". But he was just getting warmed up. He went to to evoke an image of inner-city black men playing basketball on a street corner with his words "Obama's trash-talking is a holdover from his days playing pickup basketball" then he added "at Harvard" to neutralize the racial stereotype. Rove described Obama as dishonest, lazy, and intellectually deficient (gosh, where have I heard that about a black person before? Oh yes, in the segregated world of my youth).

And it goes on. Townhallers constantly say that Obama has nothing going for him but that he is black; if he had taken his distinguished Harvard Law degree into corporate law and made millions, would they still be saying that? And one townhall author the other day described Obama as "grinning". Same old-same old. This is racism, pure and simple. About all that's left is to be told he likes watermelon.

I could be wrong; plenty of folks have been wrong about every fact of this election cycle, so far. But my guess is that black people, who have lots of EXPERIENCE with racism, speaking of experience, will know it when they hear it, and will vote accordingly. I hope with all my heart that they do.
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