Of all the candidates, Giuliani has gambled the most and staked out the best position. Every candidate would like to be ahead in the early states. But while the other guys fight it out in New Hampshire and Iowa, Giuliani retains a national lead in polls, although it has started to slip. If he can survive until Super-Duper Tuesday and not get blown out in the early states, he can win the nomination.

His biggest problem is the unexpected opposition-research file slipped under the door of some media organization.

McCain is the one-trick pony: He must do well in New Hampshire, then push forward from South Carolina on the strength of fellow veterans and loyal supporters.

A New Hampshire win for McCain would be a huge upset, because it would reinvigorate his campaign while giving him the sort of moral victory to make his case. Lose New Hampshire, and he’s done.

Fred Thompson is the non sequitur; the premise of his campaign has never followed any logical conclusion for why he is running in the first place. And Ron Paul is what he is -- the $64,000 question that sends a message to George W. Bush about the war in Iraq.

One last caveat is the general unhappiness of the Republican base. To the base, all of the candidates are flawed; while having Hillary in the race motivates base voters, not having her would put them to sleep.

“If Hillary wasn’t in the race,” says Republican strategist David Carney, “I think that 2008 might be a potential slaughter by the Democrats. They could walk all over us because the base is not happy with all of our candidates, we are all making compromises.

“But one thing that we are not going to compromise on,” he promises, “is getting the strongest candidate to beat Hillary.”