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Sunday, July 01, 2007
Salena Zito :: Townhall.com Columnist
PA is a big player in '08 battle for the House
by Salena Zito
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They sizzled in 2006. But can they sustain and perhaps gain in 2008?

The Democrat-controlled House that former Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Rahm Emanuel built last year is entering its seventh month this week. A year from now, the campaign-speak about House seats will concern two things -- “cash on hand” and slogans with some phraseology containing the words “rubber stamp.”

Emanuel struck gold in the Keystone State in 2006, impressively picking off four Republican incumbents:

· Jason Altmire beat Melissa Hart in the 4th Congressional District

· Joe Sestak beat Curt Weldon in the 7th

· Patrick Murphy beat Mike Fitzpatrick in the 8th

· And Chris Carney unseated Don Sherwood in the 10th.

It turned Pennsylvania’s political landscape into a House of blues.

Stunning as the Democrats' victories were -- in very stable Republican districts won by George W. Bush -- the celebration of a House win always is short-lived. Already, incumbents must begin defending their seats.

The four won for a variety of reasons: Altmire because Hart refused to compete aggressively; Carney because of Sherwood's personal behavior; Murphy and Sestak largely due to the political environment -- voters moving away from Republicans.

So who's vulnerable?

Not Patrick Murphy. He probably has done the most to establish himself as a quality incumbent who deserves re-election -- certainly more so than the other three. From the work he has done pursuing a national veterans' cemetery in Bucks County to securing $1.1 million for Delaware River flood prevention and repairs he gets the importance of paying attention to local issues. The only veteran of the Iraq war serving in Congress, he also co-authored legislation for a 21st Century GI Bill of Rights.

Probably not Sestak either. His seat in the southeast near Philadelphia has been held by a Democrat in the past and, based on the district’s voting performance, likely will be very hard for the GOP to win back.

Jason Altmire of McCandless is a maybe. A default winner the first time, his vulnerability comes into play if former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann runs a top-notch campaign against him.

Chris Carney's seat in the northeast is probably most endangered. While much ado was made recently when U.S. Attorney Tom Marino dropped out of consideration, backbencher Dan Meuser is probably the better quality candidate anyway. He understands the issues, has charm and sports a sizeable personal checkbook. Marino was attractive, but this marks the second time in 10 years that he has floated his name only to pull out before his toe hit the water.

Then there are the pick-up opportunities high on the Democrats’ agenda; Republicans Tim Murphy of Upper St. Clair, Phil English of Erie, Jim Gerlach in Chester County and Charlie Dent in the Lehigh Valley.

This will be the first real test for the 18th District’s Murphy. Tough and hardworking, he has done a good job of taking enough centrist votes to appeal to Democrats; if he can get past ethical issues, he will be fine.

English, in the 3rd District, will need to step up his operations as he faces his first real challenge since 1996. And it comes as he has lost his top adviser Bob Holste to Rudy Giuliani’s presidential campaign. He has proven he can run aggressive, tough campaigns appealing to swing voters, just as he did in 1996 when Bill Clinton won the district and English won re-election.

Gerlach, from the Philadelphia collar counties of the 6th Congressional District, has had tough races with lots of money against him every time. Battle-tested, he is ready to go.

Dent, in the 15th District, is the most likeable of the four. He has experience winning tough races for the state House and state Senate; he coasted into his congressional seat in 2004 but got a real scare the last time. His is the most volatile congressional district in the state – truly purple -- competitive for both parties in registration and voter performance.

Americans sent Democrats to Washington to change policies. Yet the simple math is that they do not have a veto-proof majority in either House.

Top that with Congress’ cellar-dwelling approval rating and both parties face a challenge in 2008.

Pennsylvania once again will be in play in 2008. And as a politically “swinging” state that is the backbone of ticket-splitting Reagan Democrats, look for both parties to run hard here, as if every seat they’re seeking is wide open.

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About The Author
Salena Zito is a political analyst, reporter and columnist.
 
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You ignore the head of the Dem ticket
Rendell is a very popular governor. People voted for him and there was little ticket splitting. The major casualty being Rick Santorum.

Forget about Republican Wins in 2008
Enough of us have left the party because this immigation bill was the final straw for us. The only question is -- How big will the Democrat victory be?

Republican PRIMARIES the races to watch!
> hackamore writes: Enough of us have left the
> party because this immigation bill was
> the final straw for us.
----

The question will be those who had (in the past) been discouraged from running, or had lost in the primaries, or who otherwise had not been involved in the "Team Bush" movement.

This showed up in the 2000 primary and while McCain would have been worse and became a nut and hence it hasn't been seen since, Bush's CEO/MBA management style first appeared then. It was a "Republicans must do what I say" and that is what evolved into the immigration bill.

It actually predates Bush, I have seen the same attitude in the ME, NH, & MA state parties and in the past two decades, all three states have gone from a Republican Governor and a respectable GOP to the Dems. As did the Congress in '06.

What might happen - what I actually think WILL happen - is that the Bushites have become so irrelevant that folks who could have run in the past decade, who would have WON had they run in the past decade, might well run in the primaries and might well win.

THE ONLY HOPE FOR THE GOP IS NEW BLOOD IN THE PRIMARIES OUSTING THE REMINANTS OF THE CURRENT ESTABLISHMENT!

Or 2006 will look like a GOP victory compared to what will happen....

hackamore
What sore of logic is that? Yes we are upset with some Republicans, what about all those in the House and Senate that stood with us. You don't care or so it seems. I will never understand the doom and gloom. We deafed the stupid immigration bill, DeMint was a key player.

But I guess living in a socialist country doesn't bother most of the nay sayers. They would rather stay home and all Commie Clinton to walk away with the keys to power. Thankfully those coneravtives are in the minority.

I say all this not to be critical of anyone, we are all conservatives that love America. But lets not be stupid and forget what is at stake. If we give up then we deserve to loose. I plan to fight till the bitter end and we will win.

Only One Conservative Running
Drew wants to have a conservative presidential victory in 2008, but the problem is that the only real conservative candidate, albeit with a libertarian perspective is Dr. Ron Paul. The rest of the field are either lobbyists with a shady past, and/or are RINOs, that is Rockefeller globalists in conservative clothes. Yet, despite having the only true sense of the Constitution and fair tax policy in the campaign, I sense that most people on Town Hall would rather slit their wrists than support him and vote for him. We are already a socialist or arguably a fascist country, and have been increasingly falling into that hole since the Great War. Paul understands this and has been valiantly fighting against it. Another Northeastern liberal in the mold of the Bushes, such as Guiliani or Romney are no better than Hillary.

Hackamore, the immigration bill
was defeated mostly by Republicans. This was a conservative Republican victory!

Don't discount
the negative impact on Arlen Specter's earlier primary campaign on the more recent PA elections. Out of pure disgust with the party hacks, many people opted out on election day. Santorum, sadly, was partially responsible for his own demise.

Conservatism doesn't sell itself and when conservatives fail to promote their principles they will lose. The party hacks have sold our candidates a bill of goods that they must run from being a Republican and try to be some kind of Democrat lite. If we want to change our party platform to a vote buying party we will always lose because we simply will never be able to out-bid the democrats in providing "stuff". We aren't the party of "stuff", they are.

There is a faction within the party that, for some moronic reason, thinks they must "purge" the base from the Republican party. They operate under some asinine assumption that they have the authority to deny us the vote. Well, you can't purge anyone from voting but you can run candidates that offer them no reason to leave home. Arlen Specter is one of those candidates.

I, for one, don't see the point in striving for a Republican majority when the result is a party whose legislation becomes virtually indistinguishable from the Democrat party. At least when the Dem's control congress we have someone to blame. We have only ourselves to blame for the Specters, Snowes, Lindsey Grahams, etc.

The Republican Party "left" Us..
...Conservatives have not gone anywhere, We are without a party.

Kilroy, well stated.
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