Townhall.com, Where Your Opinion Counts
Talk Radio:   Bill Bennett   Mike Gallagher   Dennis Prager   Michael Medved   Hugh Hewitt   
BREAKING NEWS  LeftArrow - Townhall.com : Conservative, Political, Republican   RightArrow - Townhall.com : Conservative, Political, Republican  
Columns, funnies & more in your inbox!
  • Check the boxes and send us your email address to receveive your free newsletter
  • Your daily must-read of conservative columns, cartoons and news. Coulter, Sowell, Krauthammer and more.
  • Townhall.com’s weekly inside scoop on what’s happening behind the scenes in the world of politics. When news breaks, we report.
  • Signup to receive the latest daily Townhall cartoons
Friday, August 24, 2007
Roger Schlesinger :: Townhall.com Columnist
"Experts" Make the Story Worse
by Roger Schlesinger
Vote on It:
Average Vote:
[+] Text [-]
 
Poll
Will Congress pass Obamacare by the end of the year?

I was just watching one of the financial shows on television and listening to a wealthy investor and one of the co-hosts talking I wanted to scream, but waking my wife wouldn't help. Each one considers the other one an expert in the field of finance as well as themself and yet I didn't hear one word of truth out of either during the period I was able to stomach the show. They, of course, were talking about the sub-prime meltdown and about a large mortgage company that had gone under that I knew wasn't a sub-prime lender. They failed to mention that. And quite possibly because they didn't know, or worse, didn't know the difference between sub-prime, Alt A and prime lending.

Out of the wealthy investors mouth came " you can't give people with good credit loans at 6.5% and people with bad credit loans at 2%". I couldn't agree more, but it didn't happen. The co-host in a very quiet and respect full voice said "I guess there will be sub-prime loans again within a couple of years" and the wealthy investor concurred. I also agree but for a different reason. We have sub-prime loans now, so I can't see why we wouldn't have them in several years as well. The sad part of this little episode is that thousands of people were probably listening and getting the incorrect information. Wrong information doesn't help anyone at any time, so why not find out the truth before disseminating information.

I could spend days and columns talking about the collapse of the mortgage market as we have known it but it wouldn't be useful to those who might read my column. Instead I would like to inform the readers about what is going on in the mortgage market today so they can make the appropriate moves.

Conforming loans, which are called that because they conform to the rules of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are doing fine. They are paying at least a little attention to the 10 year treasury note which has been, up to now, the benchmark for all of our mortgage rates. They are still higher than they would be in normal times, but within tolerable limits.

Conforming fixed rates, 10 years, 15 years, 20 years and 30 years are all within a narrow range at the bottom of the 6% range to the middle 6% range, generally without points. They could move lower as the 10 year treasury note continues its slide. Conforming loans have a current maximum of $417,000 for single family residences, $533,850 for duplexes, $645,300 for tri-plexes and $801,950 for four plexes. These limits are 50% higher in Alaska,Hawaii, Guam and the US Virgin Islands.

Sub-prime loans are very much available but at higher rates as investors have stayed away from purchasing these securitized mortgage pools and lenders have raised the rates higher to try to entice the investors to buy the securitized loan pools. Loan limits have topped out at 90% to 95% loan to value and stated loans have disappeared. Borrowers can still get a loan with a credit score at 500 but the rates for these people are in the double digits. There isn't any demand at this time for the sub-prime bonds and until it starts re-appearing, the rates will stay high.

Portfolio loans, funded with the banks own money, are still fairly reasonable but have been moving up a bit in the last several weeks. They are generally 5 and 7 year arms, which are 30 year loans that are fixed for 5 to 7 years before becoming variables. They are in the low to middle 6% range, for the most part if you wish to pay a point or in the middle 6% range to the high 6% range without points. They generally offer interest only options, low margins when they become variables and are mostly without prepayment penalties. Loan limits run as high as $2 million or more.

Jumbo loans, whether they are Alt A or Prime, are disconnected rate wise from the normal interest rate market. Generally they run 1/4% to 1/2% higher than conforming rates and are currently 1% to 1.5% higher as the lenders know that investors are very nervous about the risk and are requiring much higher returns. Rates are in the 7% to 8% range and probably won't start down until some of the remedies are in place.

As I have stated before the two best solutions to the problem are raising the lending limits of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the high cost states limits which are 50% higher. If there isn't an appetite to do this nationwide it should happen in a number of states on either coast. The Federal Reserve will most likely be cutting short term rates in September which will give some confidence to the market. I am suggesting to all jumbo borrowers up to $750,000 to consider taking a conforming loan at its maximum and adding a fixed second to make up the difference needed to reach the loan size you need. This should keep your blended rate in the middle six percent to high six percent rate and out of the 7% jumbo range.

Last, but not least, those looking to buy homes have a unique opportunity to squeeze the profit out of a new home while the outlook is negative, the weather is awful and the classical buying season is over. Even though you want to wait to see when the bottom is reached you can't know until it starts back up. In housing it is even harder to be a bottom fisherman as purchases are made, but not closed for 30 to 90 days and thus not reported in a timely fashion. You could easily be a quarter of a year behind by the time you see what is happening. A year or two ago you would have drooled at these prices. Don't find yourself two years down the road and wondering what happened.

These are unusual times that take a bit more work on everyones part to ensure that the desired results. Put in the time and the rewards are there. And stop listening to the experts on the financial stations because just maybe ..... they aren't! Oh, you don't have to put 20% down to buy a house.

Share:
Vote on It:
Average Vote:
 
About The Author

Roger Schlesinger's Mortgage Minute is heard on hundreds of radio stations and daily on the Hugh Hewitt radio show and Michael Medved shows. Roger interacts with his hosts and explores the complicated financial markets in order to enlighten his listeners and direct them along their own unique road to financial freedom.

Be the first to read Roger Schlesinger's column. Sign up today and receive Townhall.com delivered each morning to your inbox.

The market works
Disclaimer: I work in the mortgage industry.

That being said, I can't find anything factually wrong with Roger's article. Those of you who have a problem with the reality of lending...I suspect are in a loan you don't like.

I was never in a position where I had to drum up business in unethical ways, and I had people begging me for loans constantly who got themselves into jams of their own making, and then were looking for me to help bail them out. Usually I could. Sometimes I couldn't. But even if we couldn't get them a loan we always did everything that we could to prepare them for getting a loan in the future. I've spent dozens of hours on the phone with clients I've never done a loan for--knowing that eventually I'll be able to help them.

In our company we played by the rules, but if someone came in the door who'd made an offer on a house they were stretching themselves to buy, was it my responsibility to talk them out of purchasing their home?

The only thing we could do was tell them the reality of their situation, what it would cost to get the loan they wanted, and lay out as many details as we could. The borrower is the one whose signature is on the final contract. We even made them sign disclosures that we had discussed all the relevant details with them.

There's plenty of blame to go around in the mortgage mess, but we didn't make the rules. If you could qualify for a mortgage, you could GET a mortgage, and millions of people were able to buy their first home because of the 40-year-lows in interest rates.

Business caters to their customers. Successful businesses give their customers what they want. If someone wants to buy a Cadillac, and they're willing to pay what it costs to own a Cadillac, whose responsibility is it to say, "Jeepers, this Kia is a lot more affordable..."?

PS
Your columns are nothing less than blatant attempts to encourage people to entrust your company with their livelihoods. There is a special place in hell for you...
Sign Up to Post Your CommentsSign Up to Post Your Comments
If you are already registered, click here to login. Otherwise, please take a few seconds to register with Townhall.com. Once you sign up, you’ll be able to post your comments immediately, use the action center, get podcasts, and more!
Note: Fields marked with a red asterisk (*) are required.
Salutation:
First Name:
*
Last Name:
*
Email:
*
Nickname:
*
Note: Nick name will be shown when you post comments.
Address 1:
*
Address 2:
City:
*
State:
*
Zip:
*
Phone:
      
Your daily must-read of conservative columns, cartoons and news. Coulter, Sowell, Krauthammer and more.
(Bi-Weekly) We highlight the best opportunities from our partners for surveys, action items and more.