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Tuesday, August 29, 2006
Roger Schlesinger :: Townhall.com Columnist
How important is the right mortgage?
by Roger Schlesinger
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Vince Lombardi, the legendary coach of the Green Bay Packers, was once asked about how important winning is to him. He said "winning isn't everything, it's the only thing!" That is exactly how I feel about the residential, owner occupied home mortgage. It is the most important financial decision you most likely will ever make in your lifetime. And guess what -- most people do what their Realtor suggests, barber suggests, or aunt or uncle points out. Not that any of these people aren't qualified to give financial advice, they just do not take the time to understand YOUR financial condition. What happens next is the beginning of a financial loss that need not happen.

Most purchasers of a new house know about 30-year loans, and a good majority of them know about 15 year fixed loans, but very few know about a 20-year loan. That is a financial tragedy! Let's compare and contrast a 30-year and a 20-year loan on an amount of $325,000:

 30-year20-yearPayment Difference
Monthly Payment:$1,969 (@ 6.125%)$2,323 (@ 6.00%)$354/mo.
Balance after 5 years:$303,190$276,724$21,240
Balance after 10 years:$273,316$210,844$42,480
Balance after 20 years:$177,653$ 0$84,960

A small difference in a monthly payment over time becomes an exceptional amount of money. While the payment may have been a bit tight at the beginning, most borrowers grow into the payment over the term of the loan and are generally quite capable of making the monthly payment with ease. Add to the above picture the reality that after 20 years, the borrower has $2,323 a month that he or she may use to invest for ten years before the 30-year borrower is even done making payments!

The sum of the money that is available over the next ten years is a staggering two hundred and seventy eight thousand six hundred dollars ($278,600).

ALL THIS IS AVAILABLE FOR THE RIGHT DECISION TO SPEND $354 A MONTH!

I know -- you are thinking no one stays in their house or their mortgage for 20 or 30 years anymore. Let me say that although the majority does not, a growing percentage does. But it doesn't matter if you move on, as long as you keep the program going. It will work out for you.

How important is the right mortgage? You can answer that question. Is this the only case that can create such a money deferential? Hardly! I can go on for days with amazing stories that point out how proper decision-making can yield huge profits. Instead, I will give you one of my borrower’s stories:

A gentleman had an $88,000 mortgage, which was a 30 year fixed @ 5.9% with 26 years to go, a $22,000 401(k) loan and $6,500 in credit cards. He was paying a total of $1,500 a month.

He had a great number of options that would all save him years of payments and yield a nice monthly savings. In every case, it would free up his loan against his 401(k), which he probably shouldn't have taken out, but instead pulled the cash out of his house. Here were the options:

? 20 year fixed at $844/mo. Save 6 years on the mortgage, totaling $38,880, and $656/month for 20 years (or $157,440).

? 15 year fixed at $986/mo. Save 11 years on the mortgage, totaling $71,133, and $514/month for 20 years (or $123,360).

? 10 year fixed $1,293/mo. Save 16 years on the mortgage, totaling $103,296, and $207/month for 20 years (or $51,120).

The equation isn't complete until you calculate what happens after the mortgage has been paid off and the monthly payment is now invested. A proper refinance at the right time corrects the errors that are made along the way.

Work the numbers; do not let the numbers work you. Spend your time on the one financial obligation that can make the biggest difference in your life, your home mortgage. Don't look back at the errors, we all made them. Look ahead to the opportunities that you can take advantage of to create the financial goals that are achievable without a struggle, just better advice and better planning.

Roger Schlesinger's Mortgage Minute is heard on hundreds of radio stations and daily on the Hugh Hewitt radio show and Michael Medved shows. Roger interacts with his hosts and explores the complicated financial markets in order to enlighten his listeners and direct them along their own unique road to financial freedom. Roger is the President and founder of Manhattan West Mortgage.

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About The Author

Roger Schlesinger's Mortgage Minute is heard on hundreds of radio stations and daily on the Hugh Hewitt radio show and Michael Medved shows. Roger interacts with his hosts and explores the complicated financial markets in order to enlighten his listeners and direct them along their own unique road to financial freedom.

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Ignored 2 key factors
The author ignored two key factors in his first example of the 20yr vs 30 yr mortgages, taxes and investing.

1) Taxes - In any financial discussion, you should consider taxes and the after-tax effect on your decisions. 20 yr guy would get a greater deduction in the beginning while 30 yr guy would get more deductions overall due to paying more interest. Who comes out where, I'll let others figure out.

2)Investing - Why wouldn't 30 yr guy take the $354/month that he is not making in mortgage payments compared to 20 yr guy and put that $354 into a 401K or Keough account??
The author assumes that 20 yr guy will put the $2,323 per month into savings that he is no longer paying for a mortgage. If the author assumes that, why not assume that 30 yr guy will put the $354/month into a nice mutual fund for the next 20 years earning (on avg) 7%??

WJ is Right On
Dubya J is correct.

If the guy with the 30 year mortgage invested the $354 per month for 20 years at 7%, he would make a killing.

It's a no brainer really. Why would you want to pay off a 5 to 6% mortgage when you can invest the money at 7% or more?

You are forgetting the unknowns
Not everyone is willing to gamble...not everyone should. Having gone through the experience of a layoff, and being un-employed for nearly 3 years, I would pay off a mortgage early if I could.

The idea of investing cash at hand sounds good, but doesn't account for unknown factors, like illness, or layoffs. Better to be on solid footings, with all debts paid, than to try to get rich playing percentage numbers.

Good article Roger.

WJ and Josue both have good points
When people decide which mortgage is right for them, they should consider how their mortgage will affect other areas of their financial lives. People should definitely consider taxes, investment opportunities, their own risk tolerance, and liquidity.

The "right" answer will be different for everyone. But one thing I stronly recommend is having an adequate emergency fund (6-12 months of expenses) saved in a liquid account (savings account, money market, short-term CD, etc.).

Not surprisingly, those who have an emergency fund usually don't have financial emergencies. Funny how that works.

Do whatever it takes to have an emergency fund because life WILL happen to you.

Of course, a cash or cash equivalent emergency fund is best, but if that isn't possible right away, a home equity line of credit can be used until a cash account is possible. You can open a HELOC and NOT use it unless a real emergency does arise. Just be disciplined enough to leave it alone if there isn't a real EMERGENCY (job loss, disability, etc.). And be sure you factor in the payments on the HELOC if you do have to use it.

7%
And just where are you getting 7% on your money. For the average guy who doesn't know how to play the stock market, etc. where do you think they will get 7% on their money?

And if you do play the market, what's the guarantee of 7% return?

Pay off your house first, it's your largest monthly payment. 30 year loans make no sense, unless you like throwing hundreds of thousands of dollars down the drain.

Oversimplification
Focusing on the mortgage payment and amortization schedule only is not helpful to the average Joe targeted in this column. That he highlights the extra money to be invested later without mentioning that lower payment leaves money to be invested now renders this column incomplete at best. A young person may be better off diversifying their portfolio with stocks, than trying too hard to pay off a house they won't grow old in anyway. Most important, new mortgage options like ARMs should not be used to justify a too-big house just because payment can be kept low (for now).Housing is an expense. Unless your purchase is a 3 flat or some variation thereof, with rental income in addition to your living space, it is not an asset. The housing boom of the recent decade has blurred this picture. There are indeed situations where renting is the better way to go. Those who bought real estate at the inflated prices of a year ago are just waking up to that now. Nothing is more important than the price you pay. Real estate had it's own "greater fool" dynamic going on.

The tax break for gains on real estate for primary residence (no tax on $250/500K) tips the balance toward home ownership. If we are entering a period of flat housing prices that becomes irrelevant. There is an underlying theme in these columns that the average Joe is safer owing real estate than investing in stocks. That is dangerously presumptuous.

7%
7% is a conservative (very conservative) figure

A balanced mutual fund will earn more than 7% in the long run. Over 30 years, investing in a balanced fund is extremely low risk. The Vanguard Life Strategy Growth Fund earned a return of over 8% over the past ten years, and that includes the stock market crash of the early 00s.

Do the Math
Think beyond the money you can get now and consider the long term benefits.

The payment difference at the end of the 20 yr. is $84,960. Add the amount that can be saved from the mortgage payment over the next 10 years, $278,600, and the is a total $363,560. That's a huge chunk of savings by taking a 20 yr loan rather than a 30yr loan.

If an individual were to take the 30 yr loan and then invest the $354 a month difference at 7% as suggested, they will earn a total $136360.80 over the 30 yr. period of the loan.

Compare that to the savings earned by taking the 20 yr. loan and you have $227,199.20 difference between the two.

Obviously, you’re always better off with a shorter loan.

Power of Compounding
Not sure what math Jennifer is doing, but she missed the power of compounding interest.

Running the numbers for the 30 yr case,
$354 a month @ 7% (compounded monthly) gives
a total after 30 yrs of $434,388.97.

and then you factor in
- tax savings
- you are generating the liquidity you need for a rainy day by saving $354/month

of course, you have to be disciplined and actually save that $354/month

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