Well done,
Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI).
The satellite radio giant turned the corner -- in many
different ways -- with this morning's third-quarter report.
Since I lined up
three questions for Sirius XMyesterday, it's only fair to
come back with the mostly positive answers.
1. Where are the subs?
After back-to-back quarters of net subscriber
defections to kick off the year, Sirius XM got back on track.
Sirius XM more than offset 1.5 million in cancellations with
1.6 million gross additions during the quarter. Sirius XM
closed out the period with 18,515,730 subscribers, or 102,295
more than it had three months earlier.
Two months ago, I opened up the floor for
predictions on the media company's account tally. I
promised to crown a victor among the dozens of forecasts, and
it certainly wasn't me.
I was expecting a net decline of 80,000 subs, well short
of the 404,411 and 185,999 listeners Sirius XM lost during
the first and second quarters respectively. Despite the auto
industry's "cash for clunkers" injection ramping up auto
production lines again, I figured that even more
cancellations would pour in after recent rate hikes and the
introduction of a new music royalty fee.
I was wrong, so who was right?
Satwaves.com's David "Newman" Phillips won the horseshoe
match. His stab at 18,510,000 million was off by a mere 5,730
listeners.
Phillips made his post earlier this week, so I should
probably also hand out an honorary winner submitted closer to
the time the article was actually published. Phillips nailed
it -- no doubt about it -- but he also had the luxury of
getting a clearer view of the economy in September and the
robust carmaker revival that was hammered home with
Ford 's (NYSE: F)
blowout performance.
The closest of the predictions around the time the article
was originally written in September was
dcsilver, off by less than 20,000 bopping heads with his
18,535,500 target.
The most impressive part of the metric is that self-pay
subs grew both sequentially and year-over-year. Sirius XM may
have had more overall subscribers a year ago, but there are
slightly more today that are actually paying beyond the free
trial. To this end, churn and conversion rates may have
weakened over last year but they are clear improvements to
where Sirius XM was earlier this year.
You sucker-punched me, Sirius XM, but I kinda like the
taste of blood going down my throat. Nice shot!
2. How is the bottom line holding up?
My September stab was closer on the income
statement.
"Rate hikes and cost savings should deliver better top-
and bottom-line results than analysts expect," I wrote at the
time. "Wall Street expects Sirius XM to post a loss of $0.02
a share on a 1% year-over-year decline in revenue. I believe
that Sirius XM will manage to marginally grow revenue."
Pro forma revenue grew 3% to $629.6 million, as new fees
and upgrades to "best of" and streaming packages helped boost
the average revenue per user. There are slightly fewer subs,
but they're paying a little more.
When you grease the income statement with a refreshing 19%
slide in cash operating expenses, a decent top line is
transformed into an inspiring bottom line. If it wasn't for
charges related to Sirius XM restructuring its debt at lower
interest rates -- a good thing, obviously -- the radio star
would have actually posted breakeven results. It's on that
basis in which Sirius XM smoked the pros basking in their
targeted deficits. Continued... |