Holiday shoppers had better get their clicking fingers in
shape.
Forrester Research is forecasting an 8% uptick in holiday
sales to $44.7 billion this year. That's a welcome
acceleration from last year's 5% cyberspace gains, when
online and offline shoppers were naturally cautious, given
the crummy economy.
If 8% growth doesn't sound impressive, keep in mind that
the National Retail Federation is targeting a bleak 1%
decline in overall holiday sales.
For investors, the time to shop for retail stocks is
before consumers head out to the mall. By the time chains
begin discussing their same-store sales figures for November
-- come early December -- the winners will have already
separated themselves from the losers.
The disparity between online and offline projections makes
Web-based retailing the way to go, but they're certainly not
all built the same. Let's consider the varying degrees of
success and failure at some of the leading online merchants
during the 2008 holiday season.
Company
Last Year's Q4 Sales Growth
Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN)
18%
Blue Nile (Nasdaq: NILE)
(23%)
Overstock.com (Nasdaq: OSTK)
(13%)
You don't see any 5% growth there. Amazon's net sales
surged by 18% to $6.7 billionduring last year's fourth
quarter, but high-end jeweler Blue Nile and closeout
specialist Overstock posted double-digit declines. The
websites of traditional retailers probably clocked in
somewhere in the middle.
Amazon is the market leader, and it's no stodgy slouch. It
can still outrun its presumably nimbler rivals, as its
reputation and Prime member-loyalty program have seen it grow
its lead over the competition.
The interesting dynamic behind Forrester's call is that
one would assume that 2009 will be more of the same. Amazon
will land well ahead of the 8% target, with many of its
competitors falling well short of the mark. Try selling that
information to analysts. Let's go over Wall Street's top-line
expectations for the current quarter.
Company
This Year Q4 Sales
Amazon.com Continued... |