You may have fooled the knee-jerk analysts,
Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO), but you won't slide by
the more vigilant Wednesday-morning quarter hacks.
Most of last night's initial reports gushed over the
online portal's third quarter. Reuters, MarketWatch, and
The New York Timesall emphasized the tripling of
Yahoo!'s bottom line in their headlines.
That would rock, if it were on an apples-to-apples basis.
Unfortunately, it's not.
Behind the numbers
Reported earnings may have been $0.04 a share during
last year's third quarter, but that included one-time costs
related to fending off
Microsoft 's (Nasdaq: MSFT) amorous advances,
pursuing an ad agreement with
Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), and taking an
impairment hit on its Alibaba.com investment.
This quarter's $0.13-a-share profit is as padded as last
year's quarter was sandbagged. In fact, roughly half of the
company's pre-tax profits this time came from a gain related
to the sale of its direct investment in Alibaba.com.
I'm not a fan of non-GAAP profitability, but at least it's
a fairer representation this time. On that adjusted basis,
earnings rose from $0.09 a share to $0.15 a share. That's a
very strong showing by Yahoo! -- and actually a bigger Wall
Street win than many are reporting, since the pros were only
expecting non-GAAP earnings of $0.07 a share -- but there's
no tripling here.
The tweaked bottom line is impressive, especially since
the top line diminished. Revenue excluding traffic
acquisition costs fell by 15% to $1.13 billion, making it the
one line item that analysts essentially got right.
How could pedigreed pros get so lost in modeling this
income statement? Well, they probably underestimated Yahoo!'s
ability to slash costs. Former CEO Jerry Yang would announce
layoffs, but new hires would quickly pop up in their place.
Projects would get shelved, only to be replaced by other
initiatives and platform makeovers requiring significant
capital outlays.
New CEO Carol Bartz has a surer hand on the wheel, even if
last night's results still seemed a bit shaky. This quarter's
operating expenses clocked in 18% lower than last year's
quarter.
Deciphering Morse's code
Bartz "came down with something" yesterday, so she
wasn't able to attend last night's conference call. CFO
Timothy Morse took the reins and did an admirable job, save
for two head-scratching quotes.
"Consider basic search to be an Intel chip," he began,
explaining how Yahoo! can outsource its search to Microsoft's
Bing and still be relevant:
An Intel chip is used in Dells, HPs, and Macs to provide
the computation needed to operate them, but the
differentiation between these products isn't at the chip
level: It's in the different user experiences that are
provided on top of them. It's the same for us in search. We
will innovate on top of the results that are provided to us
by Microsoft.
So let's follow this analogy, which Morse credited to
Bartz, by the way.
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and lower-priced PCs are
primarily powered by
Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) chips, and Yahoo! thinks
it can provide premium search on top of Bing's algorithmic
process. In other words, it thinks it can be an Apple by
standing on the shoulders of Microsoft.
Good luck with that.
The analogy also falls apart because Morse is comparing
Microsoft in search to Intel in microprocessors. Survey says
... wrong! In terms of market share, Microsoft may not even
be
AMD (NYSE: AMD). (No offense intended to
spunky AMD; at least it keeps Intel honest.) Continued... |