Every week, I pack a parachute for this column, bailing
out of a stock that I feel has hit an uneasy altitude. But on
my way down, I'll also offer three perfectly worthy potential
replacements.
Who hits the silk this week? Come on down,
AMR (NYSE: AMR).
Read 'em and weep
The parent company of American Airlines reports
tomorrow, and I doubt shareholders look forward to booking
that flight. Rival
UAL (Nasdaq: UAUA) posted a loss this
morning, and analysts foresee AMR following suit.
The carrier was one of the few to post year-over-year
traffic declines last month, and fuel prices are climbing.
(Crude oil hit a fresh 52-week high of $80 a barrel this
morning, before retreating.) In other words, the situation is
ugly and getting uglier.
AMR is probably two years away from turning an annual
profit, and that will still be a challenge. As a legacy
carrier, AMR's cost structure is out of whack with nimbler
carriers, who are either posting profits or at least running
reasonable deficits.
American Airlines is still built for corporate travel, and
that's a big problem on many different levels. Despite the
rise of global business and a growing economic turnaround,
videoconferencing technology and online connectivity are
curbing the demand for jet-setting business class passengers.
There will
alwaysbe a need for some form of human interaction,
but it's just no longer a savvy tactical decision to bottle
up executives in productivity-sapping flights for the sake of
client maintenance or employee morale boosts.
AMR's share price has tripled since bottoming out in
March, but its fundamentals aren't much brighter. The legacy
carrier has been sharp enough to avoid bankruptcy in the
past, and it has been prudently raising cash to make it
through these lean years. However, it just doesn't have any
catalysts for growth.
Analysts see sleek competitors
Southwest (NYSE: LUV) and
JetBlue (Nasdaq: JBLU) posting a profit this
year, so it's not as if airfares aren't high enough. Wall
Street sees AMR losing a whopping $4.55 a share in 2009,
before generating a significantly smaller deficit next year.
Revenue-padding moves -- such as recently introduced checked
baggage fees -- seem to be backfiring, based on last month's
dip in traffic and Southwest's aggressive "bags fly free"
campaign.
AMR's path has been bumpy lately, and there's no reason to
think the turbulence will get any better.
Good news
As I do every week, I don't talk down a stock unless I
have three alternatives that I believe will outperform the
company getting tossed. Let's go over three new fill-ins. Continued... |