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BJ's Wholesale Club (NYSE: BJ) Warehouse clubs are going to hold up nicely in a growing country of savers. Many of the weaker restaurant chains have either shut down or scaled back during the downturn, and great prices on bulk groceries will make more sense as we stay in and eat at home more often. How can you not like the key players in this sector -- BJ's, Sam's Club, and Costco (Nasdaq: COST)? I'm going with BJ's here, because I think Mr. Market poorly misread its disappointing comps for the month of June.
On the surface, my theory would seem to shatter when you look at a warehouse club that suffered a 7.5% decline in comps last month. But you just have to dig deeper. These chains typically do brisk business selling gasoline, and prices at the pump are lower now than they were a year ago. Back out gasoline, and merchandise comps fell by a more modest 2.7%. When you stack that up against last year's spike of 16.5% (with gasoline contributing 8.2%) in June, you begin to see that last month's shortfall isn't really bleak at all.
TreeHouse Foods (NYSE: THS) Food stocks have historically been viewed as defensive investments, because we always need to eat. Saving money while we're at it? That's a bonus. I was going to go with McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) as my final pick, but I figured the "dollar menu" success story has been told too many times.
So let's go with supermarket staples -- but don't settle for the companies you know. Going that route is actually dangerous these days, since the brand giants have been hurting. Folks are trading down to store brands, and that's where TreeHouse Foods comes in.
According to TreeHouse, the private-label industry for food and beverage products is an $81.6 billion sector. Demand for private labels has also grown twice as quickly as branded products have over the past six years. From salsa to canned soup to salad dressing, TreeHouse is a heavy hitter in private labels.
And it shows. North American retail sales, margins, and adjusted profitability all clocked in higher during TreeHouse's latest quarter. The company also increased its guidance at the time -- something that few food makers have been able to do this year.
I think the savings trend will last for a while. Companies like these that are jumping on the bandwagon early could benefit the most.
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