There are really only two types of companies out there: the disrupters and the disrupted.

What's in your portfolio?

It's not an easy question to answer. Everyone likes to think that their stocks are the lions feasting on the gazelles. They can't even begin to fathom that the speedy gazelles may be the ones turning the tables and gnawing on the overly confident lions. It can be a costly mistake because knowing the difference separates the market beaters from the blindsided and vanquished.

Thankfully, there's an easy exercise that will help you determine if you're holding the prey or the hunter. I call it the three-year test.

How relevant will the companies in which you invest be in three years? If you can drum up an unbiased response, you'll be able to sidestep losers today and load up on winners.

Take three steps back before going three years forward
The hardest step in this exercise is actually approaching your own stocks objectively. Investors are primarily optimists, so the art of detachment and pondering the worst-case scenario are not entirely natural instincts.

Do it, though. You want to make money -- perhaps a whole lot of money -- in this market, don't you?

Let me cut to the chase. You may very well own Warner Music Group (NYSE: WMG). The record label has a great roster of artists like Green Day, Seal, and Nickelback. The stock is trading for a little more than a third of its IPO price four years ago. Labels are winning big legal judgments against folks who make illegal downloads possible. Now, can you honestly explain to me how the prerecorded music giant will be as relevant in 2012 as it is in 2009?

Piracy isn't the industry's killer. The real body blow to the labels is the leveling of the playing field. You no longer need to get "signed by a major" to get noticed. Every new Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) computer comes with GarageBand, a free home recording program. Is the end result worthy of laying down on a CD? No, but who needs a CD anyway? It's good enough to upload to your free MySpace page as a global demo to draw new fans and sell tickets to an upcoming show.

Bands used to need terrestrial radio, but now you have satellite radio and music discovery sites. More singers have probably emerged as contestants on American Idol than through major label signings. As music choices expand, Warner's market share will contract.

So, how confident should you be buying into a company with an awesome past, a decent present, but a cloudy future? If I were you, I would seek out the companies that will be more relevant in the future. 

Dig for disruptors
Every company believes that no one else can build a better mouse trap. Shareholders know better. Disruptors always come along. Heck, even disruptors get disrupted. Remember when AOL owned online connectivity, and Dish Network (Nasdaq: DISH) was the fast-growing player of affordable satellite television? Speedier AOL alternatives and a migration away from "me too" television subscription services turned the hunters into the hunted. Continued...