For years, Warren Buffett has focused on finding the
strongest companies with the best competitive positions, and
buying them when they're cheap. That strategy has made him
billions, and it's perfectly suited to today's market. These
days, you can buy many of the best companies in the world for
a fraction of their fair value. You just need to be brave
enough to face the volatility.
But ironically, the biggest risk to this strategy isn't
the daily volatility -- if a company's truly strong, it will
be able to survive even in a depression. The real risk lies
in buying a company whose competitive position is weaker than
it appears, or is just getting weaker.
Deceptively weak barriers
Often, a business seems to have strong barriers against
competition simply because it has a well-known brand and
large market share. In markets where there are significant
economies of scale, such as many manufacturing or
distribution businesses, market share
canbe a huge barrier. But if the economies of scale
are relatively insignificant, a competitive advantage due to
market share can be far weaker than it appears.
Take
Charles Schwab . It has a good brand name and
billions in assets under management, but its revenue last
year was less than it generated in 2000. A major problem is
that there are few barriers to creating an online
brokerage.
Interactive Brokers and
thinkorswim have both made big splashes in
the last few years by offering superior trading technology,
while
E*TRADE has also grown its brokerage top line
significantly. Meanwhile, retail banks like
BB&T (NYSE: BBT) and a partnership
between
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and
Citigroup 's Smith Barney have begun offering
online brokerage services.
If Schwab truly had a huge moat, these competitors would
have had a difficult time gaining any traction. Thus far,
thanks to the brand and stickiness of assets under
management, Schwab has actually been able to grow its
margins, but it's unclear how long that will last with
increasing competition.
Times change
The impact of fewer people reading newspapers has been
obvious for years, as advertising dollars have fled from
papers to the Internet. But social changes are affecting
television networks as well.
CBS has had declining revenue for years, and
if you exclude the effects of the Olympics and acquisitions,
General Electric 's NBC unit has had limited
growth. The world is changing, and it's hurting both of these
networks.
While TV viewing is at all-time highs, couch potatoes have
more channels than ever before, meaning the market is more
fragmented. The rise of Internet television only increases
market fragmentation. As if that weren't enough, personal
video recorders (PVRs) and file-sharing networks have made it
much easier for consumers to skip commercials. These changes
will result in lower ad rates and weaken the competitive
position of TV networks.
Watch out for technology
It's no coincidence that new technology is playing a
big role in weakening the TV networks. Game-changing
technology is one of the biggest risks that a company can
face.
For years, integrated steel producers like
U.S. Steel (NYSE: X), Bethlehem Steel, and
AK Steel's (NYSE: AKS) predecessor ARMCO
dominated a very profitable industry. But as minimill
technology, which utilizes scrap steel, became more efficient
and capable of producing steel of increasing quality, the big
steel producers migrated away from higher and higher value
products.
As a result, minimills run by
Nucor (NYSE: NUE),
Schnitzer Steel (Nasdaq: SCHN), and
Steel Dynamics (Nasdaq: STLD) have taken over
much of the industry and compete with integrated steel
producers on high-value products, but with a lower cost
structure.
So when looking at stocks, be particularly aware of
technological threats to the business. Continued... |