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Friday, March 27, 2009
Rich Tucker :: Townhall.com Columnist
Money Matters
by Rich Tucker
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Will the Dems' health care Christmas Present to America be an improvement or detriment to our health care system?


There’s no speedy cure for a hangover. But, as a t-shirt that was popular some years ago said, one can avoid hangovers by “staying drunk.” That seems to be the advice coming from the Obama administration and Newsweek magazine.

The president says he’s crafted “a budget that leads to broad economic growth by moving from an era of borrow-and-spend to one where we save and invest.” It’s not clear just whom he thinks should be saving. But certainly not the federal government.

Obama’s spending proposals would double the national debt, eventually running it up to more than $15 trillion. In total, he would increase federal spending from $24,000 per household (the peak reached under President Bush) to $32,000 per household by 2019. Thus we can expect no savings, just big spending, from Washington.

So is it individual Americans who should start putting money away for a rainy day? Obama’s team say no. At least not yet.

“I think the truth is consumers have also not done a lot of spending for the last 14 months,” Christina Romer, chair of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers, said on NBC’s Meet the Press on March 15. “So what I would predict and I think would be a perfectly reasonable thing is you go out and you buy that car that you’ve been thinking about for 14 months and you do some of the spending.”

Newsweek agrees. “Stop saving now!” its March 23 cover story warns. “For our $14 trillion economy to recover and thrive, hoarders must open their wallets and become consumers, and businesses must once again be willing to roll the dice,” writes Daniel Gross.

“In January, Americans saved 5 percent of disposable personal income, up from 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007 -- and our newfound desire to squirrel away cash seems likely to continue,” Gross adds.

But wait -- isn’t this exactly what our national scolds have long wanted to see -- more saving?

Just a year ago, another Newsweek article pointed out that, “savings as a percentage of disposable income have plummeted in the United States, from between 7 and 10 percent in the 1960s and ’70s to just 0.4 percent in 2007.” That led writer Eve Conant to wonder, “How often do the words ‘frugal’ or ‘thrifty’ come up in conversation, especially as a compliment?” She added, “perhaps it’s time to bring them back.”

Or, at least, to start rewarding good behavior and punishing bad. We certainly haven’t done that up to now.

In recent years, “we bought houses with no money down, took on huge amounts of debt and let the booming stock and housing markets perform the heavy lifting of saving,” Gross writes. Well, speak for yourself. But, ironically, it’s exactly the people who behaved badly who are now likely to be bailed out.

Consider somebody who started saving in 1999. He’s been maxing out the IRA and 401(k), year-in and year-out. Meanwhile, his neighbor bought a house he couldn’t afford with no money down. That loan was backed by the government through Fannie Mae.

In recent months, our hypothetical saver has been wiped out. All his market gains from a decade of thrift are gone. The major indexes are below where they were when he started making money on the dot.com boom of the ’90s.

The irresponsible neighbor can now expect help. As Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner wrote this week in The Wall Street Journal, “We launched a broad program to stabilize the housing market by encouraging lower mortgage rates and making it easier for millions to refinance and avoid foreclosure.”

But the frugal investor won’t get a bailout. He has no choice but to sit, watch, wait and hope. There’s no way Washington’s going to make him whole; he’s got to trust Wall Street.

Meanwhile, inflation is certainly coming. With all the money the government is borrowing and spending, and all the money the Federal Reserve and other central banks are pumping out, inflation -- which, like “recession,” became a forgotten word in most people’s professional lifetimes -- is coming back. There’s too much cash sloshing around for us to avoid inflation forever.

This, too, would benefit the irresponsible neighbor. Over the years inflation would reduce the actual amount the neighbor needs to pay, since he’d be paying back dollars that are worth less than the ones he borrowed. It’s a win-win for foolishness. Meanwhile, inflation will further reduce the saver’s nest egg.

During her Meet the Press appearance, Romer added, “over the long haul I’m hoping we’ll come back to probably a higher savings rate, because we know we were at kind of a historic low before this all happened.”

A lovely hope, but there’s no reason to expect it to come to pass. Saving seems like a fool’s game these days. As he presses his big spending plans, the president should be aware that a country that rewards bad behavior will only get more of it. Drink up!

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About The Author

Rich Tucker is an editor in Washington D.C. and a columnist for Townhall.com.

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Obama's on a fool's errand.
Spending money like it was monopoly funny money on programs that only serve to further loot our treasury and the pockets of average people is not a swell idea; I think even middle schoolers would tell you that if you are in debt, you can't spend your way out of debt. How is Obama's idea superior to that? I've actually heard college professors say, "you just have to wait and see how it all shapes up...after all he's only been office 90 days." Doesn't common sense count for anything anymore? If you are in a deep hole, you don't keep digging for crying out loud! It's as if they have suspended all disbelief because they assume Obama has some kind of magic formula that they themselves don't know; as if Obama were Merlin the magician. And the MSM (apparently a new adjunct to the Administration Branch of government)is utterly negligent and derelict in their duty to report the news objectively. This is a dark frightening dream; one that I'm afraid that will all come true one day soon.

SURPRISED?
NO!! Not really!! "O" is just the very useful idiot shill for the DNC who says and does all they`ve wanted to do for ages. The only surprise for me has been the speed and extent to which it all has been rammed through! And of course the depths of the lunacy and open corruption! KYPD

If the across the board
loss of money, the drop in standard of living, the rise in stress and worry, does not provoke thought, we are finished as a world power. Even if people figure out somnething is very wrong, they may well hold the wrong factors responsible. Doesn't look all that great ahead, but still better than leaving, at least for now. Americans have been retiring to Panama and simiolar places for a long time. Another half a million gringos in the American community would create a small Fayetteville south of the border. Tories leaving the states in the late 1700's created the Bahamas and Virgin Islands. Could happen again somewhere.

SignPainterGuy
KYPD is good advice so long as the good guys are the majority. This has always been the case here, but then, we were promised change, and change we got.

Pistol
I'm beginning to think there is no such thing as a good guy in Washington as of this week. One way or the other, they are all out to screw us.

eastlake joe
The good guys i am talking about are Americans. As long as the majority of Americans are the same honest hard-working decent folks of our history, the country is worth fighting for. If this has changed, if the majority really wants equality of outcome, if a few worker bees wind up trying to support a population of drones, why risk anything to support such a mess?
As for good guys in DC, dang few, my friend. So long as the rats are being re-elected at a 95 per cent rate, they will continue to get rich on the public's dime.

STOP DIGGING!
Bush, with his aversion to vetoes gave us all the liberal nonsense we could stomach. He and the congress creeps were busy digging with shovels for 8 years and accelerated exponentially after the dhimmicrats took over on the hill in '06. Now Obama has taken away the shovels and moved in HUGE excavators, one for every congress creep who wants one. This is madness...

The current crop of budget busters were howling about deficits and gubmint spending before the election, but now that their man is running(?) things, the sky's the limit.

How does it feel to be looked upon as a infinite source of money for their Utopian dreams? Motivates me to get up everyday and head to my job - after all, SOMEONE has to produce in order to finance the statists vast programs for the non-producers, which includes gubmint employees...

This cash cow is getting down in the back and soon will be ready for the home for retired Holsteins. There is one, right? Please don't tell me the rumor about US being turned into hamburger is true?

Facts, Beignets, Cafe Au Lait, & More
1) What is the GDP of the US in a good year?

~$14,000bn

2) What is the current national debt?

~$12,000bn

3) What will be the budget deficit next year?

~$1,300bn

4) How much will Obama's deficit add to the national debt in the next 10 years?

~$9,300bn

5) What is the estimated amount of unfunded mandates (social security, Medicare, and Medicaid) on the "books" of the United States?

Between $56,000bn and $75,000bn

6) At what income figure would the US government have to seize all income in order to pay down the CURRENT deficit and debt?

~$75,000

7) What was the effect of the debt saddled on each and every American from the Stimulus bill?

~$38,000 in debt was charged to each and every American.

8) What is the multiple of cash injected by the Federal Reserve in the last 6 months?

~279%

9) Are we currently in a deflationary or inflationary cycle?

Deflationary

10) What are two examples of depressions with hyperinflation?

The Weimar Republic in Germany during the 1920s through Hitler's rise to Führer in 1933.

Current day Zimbabwe where Mugabe seized all of the assets of the plantation owners to spread the wealth. Devalued Zimbabwe's once stron currency and destroyed the former thriving economy.


(cont.) Facts And The Road To Hell
11) What is the minimum expected rate of inflation once recovery begins?

At the very minimum, inflation will be 5-8% when recovery begins, which will act as a disincentive for employers to expand and hire more workers. It will make feeding one's family, buying a car, paying tuition, and surviving cost-prohibitive in an evironment where the overall cost-of-living is dramatically higher than it has been.

12) Accordinging to the Washington Post and if Obama's budget passes, the Government will spend 82% of our GDP by 2019, which makes Zimbabwe look sane.

13) You will have to work 299.3 days a year in order to pay Uncle Sam.

14) Socialism always FAILS because the Government runs out of everyone's money, except for the funds of Soros, who made over $1bn by shorting the market, and the rest of the "shorters".

15) We will DIE.


Solutions Please
Allen Greenspan and President Bush pushed Fannie and Freddie as well as private lenders to give out mortgages that were almost guaranteed to fail.

The supposed economic prosperity and growth in GDP during the first seven years of the Bush administration was false. It was fake money from unrealistic increased in the value of homes.

This debacle is now unwinding. The object is to allow it to unwind with as little pain as possible.

All I see on these boards is whining, and that tax cuts must be the answer.

Please offer an alternative to the Federal Government spending huge money to try to keep our economy from getting worse.

Whining and tax cuts are not the solution.

Hysteria
Obama likes to stir up the people where they go into hysterics.Mabye the whites ought to do the same and run him out!I have yet to see a town,city,country,or anything run by a black prosper.

roadmaster
Bush was one;congress is over 300,they are the one to blame for this mess!Obama is going right along with them!

Keep your Hood On Stan
Wow! Where is your Klan Chapter in Kansas Stan?

Keep up the good work. Let the racists and hate mongers run the country. Good Idea.

I can't believe that all of you good conservative christians on this board don't condemn Stan and others like him.

Bush and The Republican Congress
Are exactly what got us into this mess.

He was "the decider" you know.

toosoonold
Did you forget to take your Aracept? From 02 thru 05 Bush, McCain et al tried repeatedly to make Fannie and Freddie tighten lending standards, but were thwarted vociferously by Dodd and ButtBoy Barney. ACORN conducted a terror campaign against banks that didn't have "enough" minority borrowers. The Fed, an independent agency, kept interest rates artificially low, attracting more borrowers. TV shows glamourized flippers, people who would buy a house for $200K, spend $50K on renovations and sell three weeks later for $400K. That's a 60% return in 21 days. This encouraged droves of amateur speculators. These factors produced a demand spike in the housing market which builders frantically tried to keep up with. Eventually, they caught up and as always happens in a free market the excess supply started to push prices downward. IMHO, the crash and its severity were caused by the buying frenzy of the last decade(maybe even longer) which pushed housing prices in many markets to unsustainable, if not insane levels. What goes up, must come down. It's an immutable law of free market operation which will operate in its own fashion regardless of who's in office.

For Moonbat
I appreciate almost all that you said. The only part you missed is that President Bush issued "America's Home Ownership Challenge" in 2002. He chastised Fannie and Freddie for not keeping up with the private lenders. He challenged Fannie, Freddie and the private sector to increase minority ownership by 5.5 million.

http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/20 02/06/20020617-2.html

Then President Bush Announced the "American Dream Downpayment Act"

http://www.hud.gov/news/release.cfm?content=pr03-140.cfm

I almost forgot about the adjustable rate mortgages.

http://www.hud.gov/news/release.cfm?content=pr03-022.cfm

I really liked your post. Most of it is spot on. I can find many more links that demonstrate that President Bush and the Republican Congress cheerleaded the mortgage industry and Fannie and Freddie to make bad loans.

Your points about the supposed reform of Fannie and Freddie are also quite suspect. None of those proposals would have stopped or even stalled the calamity that happened. There is no there there.

toosoonold
There is actually a dichotomy at work here. Increased levels of home ownership have enormous salutary effects not only on the economy, but on the national psyche. What's inimical is widespread fiscal irresponsibility in both the public and private sectors. Like most things in life, managing this is a very delicate balancing act.
We can't know how much of an effect reform at F&F would have had, since it didn't happen, but I still believe it would have at least attenuated the problem.
Continued reflection is leading me to see a larger problem. That is that too many decisions on economic policy are made using political criteria.

What now
Would seem to be the more pressing question than why or who, although I understand there could be something to learn by asking the later.
At a time when our brand new President has proposed a budget that would effectively double the national debt in 5 years, where is all of this borrowed money supposed to come from! That would seem to me the most cogent question.

Professor Romer, giggle, giggle ...
Romer is like a cheery chipmunk when you see her on TV, almost bubbling as she talks about the impact of the economy on other people. "Terrible losses, giggle, giggle, go out and buy a car, giggle, giggle."

But then, like so many of our "elite leaders", she is immune from financial problems. She and her husband are both tenured professors who will retire with 90% of their salaries, inflation indexed, guaranteed by the taxpayers, after giving one lecture a week for the last 25 years.

Still Drunk
These illiterate liberals are so eager for the rich to take care of their sorry arses as if they haven't been doing it for decades!

When Obama's programs have drained the life's blood from the people who fork over most of the income taxes that feed the lower class,where do they think their next meal is coming from?

Go get a job from a poor man....not possible. The poor only take and ask for more. They think only the rich will pay for Obama's foolishness. We will all pay and pay dearly.

2soonold
Instead of calling Stan names(a typical liberal attack when facts are not on their side) - prove him wrong. Name one city, state, conuntry with a black man in charge that being is run well.

Quixotic-WA
U make an EXCELLENT point..Richmond, VA MIGHT be an example of a Mayor who is giving it his best shot, but I would NOT live there.. CHEERS

LOL
Credit comes from savings with the fractional reserve system, and the big money institutions have gone from 10 to 1 fractional reserves to it seems 100 to 1 - and when the call to cover came, they started collapsing.
Savings rebuilds a base of liquidity for the big institutions to leverage and speculate and bet(gambling is part of the system now - it's the biggest race track going) and lend.
So, yes, the scolds were screaming about low savings, now they don't like the natural corrections occurring in the free market.
More government harrassment should fix it, right ?
I watched the colluding criminal idiots in the hearings - and the money changers - and the best little speil came from Shayes and then one time from Maloney - at least they hit the scolding just right.
Excessive leveraging and gambling without a pot of savings to back up the gigantic losses that will eventually come won't fix anything.
They will of course just try it all again. No reform is coming - the giant beast is running on computers now, and is worldwide, they cannot contain it.
Deleveraging is happening - and then of course it's the starting bell again, and they're off !
I don't think the fed libtards should have trillions to blow away piling into the game.
The feds bought their own debt I heard - a trillion worth. We all SHOULD know what that means - noone else wanted it.
The libtards have just concluded that money does grow on federal reserve trees.
This is amazing - and yes, it's totally blown, and the inflation that will hit, is hitting, will be enourmous, and it won't "tax the rich" - it will hammer from the bottom, pummmeling the very lowest into mush, and at the top it will be a big pile of cash they never earned. That is clear.

Good defined as depending on Feds!
That is just too scary a thought. It may be realistic and accurate and certainly what Obama wants, but a course correction in 2010 is what the folks want.

Bleeding Heart Alert!
This is to inform you:

YOU CAN PAY MORE IN TAXES THAN YOU OWE! IN FACT, YOU CAN CEDE ALL OF YOUR WORLDLY POSSESSIONS TO UNCLE SAM IF YOU SO CHOOSE!

So, pony up to the Fed bar because if Obama's budget becomes reality, you will have to work 299.3 days a year and the spending to GDP ratio will be 82%(per the Washington Post) and make Zimbabwe look fiscally responsible.



BTW, did you know that the convicted Soros made over ONE BILLION DOLLARS last year by shorting the US market? OK, the conviction was in France and the charge was insider trading. But, HELLO!

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