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Friday, January 04, 2008
Rich Tucker :: Townhall.com Columnist
Making Cents of Our Economy
by Rich Tucker
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Will the Dems' health care Christmas Present to America be an improvement or detriment to our health care system?


It’s impossible to open a newspaper without being told how awful the American economy is. Yet it’s just as hard to open your eyes without seeing how outstanding the American economy is.

Consider an AP report from Dec. 4. “Hiring practically stalled in December, driving the nation’s unemployment rate up to a two-year high of 5 percent and fanning fears of a recession,” it begins.

Yawn.

At this point it’s probably impossible to count how many warnings of recession we’ve endured. Today the threat is rising unemployment. Last month it was the collapse of subprime mortgages. And in the years before that it was soaring gas prices, Hurricane Katrina and the Sept. 11 attacks. Through it all, month after month and year after year, the economy just keeps growing.

So let’s ignore the news for a moment and consider whether we’re better off than we were just, say, a generation ago.

A recent trip to Florida reminded my wife that, 20 years ago, her parents surprised their three children with a Christmastime trip to Disney World. Back in 1987, that was the ultimate extravagance for a middle-class family, a once-in-a-lifetime voyage. These days, if my stack of Christmas cards is to be believed, plenty of middle-class Americans make a pilgrimage to Orlando every year.

Statistics bear that out. Attendance at theme parks increases every year. Even last month, amid the much-heralded jump in unemployment, “Theme park parking lots swelled past capacity, and pedestrian concourses at Walt Disney World, SeaWorld Orlando and Universal Orlando resembled Manhattan sidewalks during rush hour,” the Orlando Sentinel reported on Jan. 2. The story’s headline says it all: “No sign of tough economic times at Orlando-area theme parks.”

And it’s not simply humans who’re living better than ever. So are our pets. Last year the Progressive auto insurance company announced that, “In most states, a Progressive policy with Collision coverage will now cover its customers’ canine and feline four-legged family members.” Insurance for Fido is only part of a trend, though.

In July 2007, BusinessWeek magazine reported, “Americans now spend $41 billion a year on their pets -- more than the gross domestic product of all but 64 countries in the world.” Keep that in mind the next time you say, “It’s a dog’s life.” Animals in this country have more disposable income than humans in most other countries.

Furthermore, spending on pets has doubled in the last 10 years. Of course, as Walter Cronkite noted in his memoirs a few years back, in a troubled economy the family pet is the first thing to go. “My mother denied it to her last breath,” Cronkite wrote about the early days of the depression, “but I am positive that I remember her making hamburgers out of the dog’s last can of food.” If Americans were being forced to eat dog food to survive they wouldn’t want to share it with an animal. Instead we’re pampering our pets more than ever.

Of course, there are problems. Consider health insurance. Apparently, it’s just too good.

“My insurance company requires no co-payments for generic drugs, so I can theoretically mask [high blood pressure] for free,” Washington Post reporter Michael Rosenwald explained in a story last November. “And it just became cheaper for millions of Americans to get low-cost generics through Wal-Mart, which is charging $4 for a 30-day supply of drugs that treat common ailments such as high blood pressure.” Access to inexpensive drugs is undoubtedly a problem most countries would love to have.

Rosenwald admits he’s overweight, as are millions of Americans. But that, again, is a sign of a good economy, not a bad one. On the whole, we work less strenuous jobs, yet have more money than previous generations. Good work, if you can get it.

Yes, there are problems in the American economy. Too many people lack health insurance, for example. But the answer is to expand the free market by getting them enrolled in private health-insurance plans. How to do that is another column for another day. However, suffice to say the problem will abate when more people control their own health care and can act in their own best interests.

At some point our economy may, indeed, slide into recession. But if past is prologue, we’ll just go on enjoying the most amazing boom in human history. You won’t be reading much about that boom in the papers. But look around, and you’ll see evidence of it everywhere.

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About The Author

Rich Tucker is an editor in Washington D.C. and a columnist for Townhall.com.

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We may have a recession some day....LOL
Has Tucker apologized yet or is putting hope in the Fed's 3/4 pt rate cut.

Tucker....
Has Rich Tucker apologized, yet?.....

Nope. Guess he is holding out for the fed to act "aggressively"....to create another bull market based on a house of cards.

Meanwhile the US currency continues its devaluation, and I am watching my "tech" company's stock, despite real "growth" in business and sales, continue its slide. US investments not as attractive when you have a weak dollar.

Trulib
"The fiat money situation we have is actually sustainable as long as the governing authority can match economic growth to money supply growth."

Sure.....but that is stating the obvious. A communist government can run a national economy and allocate resources the most efficiently too given the right information. Its ironic a "trulib" would believe governments would be capable of this...it has never been done, however. Just head out and peruse a few books...one by Peter Schiff called Crashproof,and another called the Dollar Crisis.

What they show, is when they took that handcuffs off at Bretton Woods which wasn't even really a gold standard, a massive expanding world wide fiat money supply occured.....an economy built on a house of cards of massive debt has been built.

Now we are in a very unique situation....we need actual investments to absorb the > 500Bil in trade imbalance...what do you think foreign companies will do with the dollars they receive, wall paper their home with them? They have a strange interdependence on us. They almost "have" to invest in US securities and other debt instruments in order to keep the US afloat because they need our consumption to keep their economy going...a viscious cycle. They can't exchange their dollars for their currency because it just devalues the dollar (which is happening anyhow. So this makes the dollar weak, which makes their goods less attractive. So while this circular dog chasing the tail goes on, it has, in the "Dollar Crisis" parlance, overheated world wide economies.

The problem occurs when things like a wobbly house of cards is stimulated by a housing crisis. Even a lib monetarist economist like Paul Krugman is worried. First time I ever see him distrust government. LOL.

A skirt and pom poms for Mr Tucker
Sir, you forgot to put on your cheerleader uniform for the photo.

Does it occur to the writer that people were spending and living it up just before the great depression too? Ever hear of the roarin' 20's?

or how well the luxury goods and vacation travel business was before 2001?

I'm sure they were partying hearty right before the Titanic struck an iceberg, too. Does that mean there was no danger?

Just because some fools go out borrowing and spending and not saving for their futures, it doesn't mean there aren't serious macroeconomic problems in the economy.

The debt and overspending party is just about over. Read "crashproof" by Peter Schiff or any of the other half dozen books that spell out why we can't continue on as usual. Any fool can appear affluent if he borrows to do so.

What I find priceless is how this guy uses weasel words in the final paragraph to avoid the egg in the face he'd get in a year or two when we're mired in a recession he otherwise says isn't happening. Of course we might "SOMEDAY" have a recession. Wow, what an amazing prognosticator.


I'm No Economist
I have to look at this logically. We keep spending way more money than we earn, both personally, and as a country. We send jobs out of the country and import, illegally, laborers, who work cheaper than we do, because it costs us more to pay our bills, to these foreign laborers, thusly, there goes more of our money. Sure, other countries send money back to us, but they are investing theirs, which will, one day, lead to more of our money leaving the country. Sooner or later, people will stop loaning us(personally, and as a country) money to pay our bills, and our income will not be able to cover them. What the 7734 are we going to do then? Right now, I'm going to throw up.

heresyarch
As long as it is a hand cranked computer you are OK. The fiat money situation we have is actually sustainable as long as the governing authority can match economic growth to money supply growth. The danger comes when government mismanages its own finances and then uses monetary policy to cover it's butt. We have unfunded liabilities that the government has no hope of paying off. They can raise taxes and kill the goose or they can repay the debts with dollars they have made worthless. Want to bet which way they will go?

Econ lesson for Tinsldr
part 2:
So why we get into a depression is due to government induced "cluster of errors". In a unhampered market, there are no "cluster of errors", since business owners will not all make the same errors in judgement at the same time. The "boom/bust" cycle is generated by monetary intervention from the federal government.
The fed's credit expansion sets in motion the business cycle: the inflationary boom, marked by expansion of the money supply and by malinvestment; and the crisis, which arrives when the credit expansion ceases and malinvestments become evident; and the depression recovery, the necessary adjustment process by which the economy returns to the most efficient ways of satisfying consumers.

Then there is the moral dilemma you have to satisfy as a statist, such as you are:

Why can governments counterfeit at will and be "moral" while you and I can't copy 100 dollar bills using our laser printers.

My syllogism:
Theft is immoral and unethical.
Counterfeiting is theft
Counterfeiting is immoral and unethical.
The government's fiat money is thus immoral and unethical.

In the Bible, God finds diluting currency abhorrent.

Now I just have to figure out why me, an Amish folk, is using a computer.

Econ lesson for Tinsldr
part 1:
An increase in the supply of money, the demand for money remaining the same, will cause a fall in the purchasing power of each dollar...or a general rise in prices. Conversely, a drop in the money supply will cause a general decline in prices. On the other hand, an increase in the general demand for money, given the supply is fixed, brings about a rise in the purchasing power of the dollar (a general fall in prices); while a fall in demand will lead to a general rise in prices.

Businesses will have business cycles, but without government interferance, the business fluctuations economy wide are uncorrelated, so they tend to cancel out...i.e. one industry will be up while another industry will be down. No single industry can single-handedly ignite an economy-wide depression where all industries are correlated in a down cycle. Only when government intervenes, as in manipulating the supply of money, they create the atmosphere for the the entire economy to correlate. This can (and does) create market distortions that will cause a "boom" and similarly a "bust", and this is the source of economic booms and also economic recessions. The subprime mortgage mess we are curently in is a prime example of a artificial housing boom followed by a housing bust, and is yet to be seen how bad this will become. The massive expansion of consumer debt finanaicing our economy is the result of easy money printing created by the government. The worry is what happens when you have revolved your last credit card, collections are due, and you have little assets to cover your obligations which are dropping in value.


loco
Eventually life will start kicking them in the b*lls and I expect most will run to the nanny state and say 'do something'. It appears both parties are more than willing to answer that call.

Tru Lib
You are so right. Pick up the paper and read over and over how bad it is, but a recent poll showed 86% of Americans are happy with their lives.What's up?

I remember when interest rates were in the double digets which suited my parents in retirement because CD's were earning them good money.

I remember when, if my parents took us out to a restaurant, it was a really big deal and now it is the norm.

I remember when we got a TV when I was a senior in high school. Now, multiple TV's are the norm.

I guess misery and unhappiness is relevant. Deprivation is not having the latest video game.

Dug
Every day we are told that the economy is bad and the housing market is dropping like a rock. Do you go looking for a house with news like that? The media sells bad news and they think the worse it is the better chance a Democrat has of taking the White House.

Unemployment is at 5%. How many alive now have been in the work force when the rate was 9 or 10? Most in the work force have no idea of what bad is. Mortgage money is around 6%. The first mortgage I applied for the bank wanted 18%. Buying a house right now would be really smart. Can't let people think house prices dropping is a good thing for some so the media keeps up the drum beat. Bad, bad, bad.

If you are in debt
Whether an individual, city, county, state or federal government, interest cuts into your buying power.

If you are a saver and investor keeping ahead of inflation, you are doing well, if you are a borrower, you aren't.

$915 billion in credit card debt, added to home equity loans, car loans and payday loans and you have a nation of consumers running out of places to borrow to consume. There is a global credit issue with the U.S. We sold the world toxic derivatives. Even a small city in Iceland has a pension fund hit by loaning us money.

Also, the job report was much worse than reported because the "birth/death model" used to estimate the number of jobs created in addition to the polling, is totally overblown when an economy is in transition. We lost jobs. As one other commented on the "job growth" in financial after 250,000 in layoffs has been projected, "does anybody believe they create jobs?" He said, "did I miss something? Is Citibank hiring?"

If you aren't a "saver," start. If you are in debt, get out or at least be able to make one years payments if laid off.

Booming Economy???
I guess that the economic impact of the nasty real estate market depends on where you live. In the Florida, we have at least three large metropolitan areas where the real estate business is not "dead", but not alive either. Very few buyers for literally thousands of really nice houses that have had For Sale signs decorating their front lawns for over a year. Banks have tightened credit, sellers try to get boom market value for their homes while buyers want to buy at even lower than market prices. It seems to me that we are to blame -- not the media.

Visible ripples? For the first time in 25 years, Christmas driving and shopping in the Orlando area was easy -- no traffic jams, plenty of parking spaces and no waiting at cash registers. The Disney Fantasy lands are another world -- but there have been days when parking wasn't a problem there either. Solutions? I'm a very old economist, so I'll leave it up to the young ones to figure out what to do. Good luck! DUG

Lily--spread the word
hope you blog, if not go to moronpolitics and comment, aybe you can become a guest writer. Worst part of VAT garbage is it falsely stops debate over real tax policy. Just say you're going to get rid of the IRS and wait for the applause. At LEAST it should be dependent on repeal of the Income Tax Amendment. Ever live in a state that started state income taxes on the promise of stopping sales tax or property tax. It never happens. The new tax is added; the old one stays.

A history lesson from the "amish"....
A few facts:

WWI was a largely a stalemate until we entered. the sinking of the Lusitania, one of our governments excuses for entering war which we should not have chosen sides, was fair game since it was carrying arms to England. And on top of that, Germany was enforcing a blockade of England, just as England was enforcing a blockade of Germany...although because of England's vastly superior navy, it was more effective at starving the German people. Our involvement in aiding France, England and Russia led to Germany's defeat which made the German's negotiating ability more difficult...France wanted blood and heavily penalizing heavy reparations. The unfair terms dictated by the treaty of Versailles led to Germany's printing of money and hyper inflation, and the ruin of Germany (not unlike our world's economy).....which led to the creation of the Nazis. Meanwhile back in the revolutionary war torn Russia, broke from fighting on the eastern front, but funded by US aid, supported what would eventually be Lenin and his "cleaning house". This all brought WWII, the cold war, Korea, etc, etc, etc. but don't let Tinsldr2 ever lead anyone who he calls an Amish person tell anyone about monetary policy.

Tinsldr2
"Amish-like people like Heresyarch can rail about gold backed money..."

Of course you have not one argument to refute me.

I propose "honest money". You propose ever expanding fiat money, and a war mongering government who can finance any war they feel will benefit "democracy" even when the REALITY is that the "good intentions" leads to the likes of Hitler, and Stalin (yes, Wilson is to blame), and the 60 million deaths the neocon philosophy brings.


lily - obesity
fyi - the obesity epidemic is a product of the CDC and the medical industry.

what the CDC wants right now is an epidemic of some sort. they chose obesity to the delight of the pharma industry, weight watchers, etc.

why? because health insurance companies are bought and influenced by the pharma industry.

what does pharma want? to sell there drugs

how will they do it? by cajoling the Drs that take their insurance to diagnose obesity, pre hypertension, cholesterol problems, etc. then they have the perfect pill for them!

why do you think everyone is on statins?

btw check the stats: obese people live longer and better than the "healthy ones"


To TruLib
You ask what change American voters want. For starters, we want a government that follows the law. 1) At present we have one that does anything it wants and then moves the goalposts to say "our position is that what we did was perfectly legal". 2) At present we have a government that has established a new level of secrecy. Documents that, by law, should be at the Archives are shrink-wrapped in locked storerooms. 3) At present we have a government that fired its opening salvo by holding a high-level secret meeting to reformulate national energy policy---then went to court to maintain that secrecy. 4) At present we have a government that said, nine months before 9-11 "We believe that the power of the Executive Branch has been eroded and we intend to change that".

The "Unitary Executive" does not represent a democracy (or a republic, if you prefer that term). It stinks of oligarchy and even of monarchy. Didn't we establish this nation to change that? And that's the change we want now.

To boone
I suspect that those who want a VAT rather than an income tax haven't traveled much. Retail prices in VAT countries are so high that they tend to make the traveler fall over backwards on his behind right in the street. I remember once going to buy a small folding umbrella in Europe and seeing that one that would have cost me $5.99 in the States was running around $75 in Europe.

In spite of the "get-rid-of-government" rhetoric, the fact is that running a nation costs x amount of money: national defense, highways and streets, parks and forests and public beaches, municipal medical services, fire and police protection, education at all levels, and income maintenance for those needing it, all are functions of any civilized society. If you add up the costs and divide them per sack of potatoes and per bedsheet and per pair of shoes, prices are going to go up astronomically.

And the solution is....
A 35 percent national sales tax, right? Watch out, because you have a candidate out there who doesn't answer a single question about taxes because he just has to say "I'll get rid of the IRS" and listen to the applause. Forget the fact that it punishes retiree's who paid income tax all their lives and are now going to pay as they spend it. His answer is Just live below the poverty line, suckers. Forget taking the grandkids to Disney World, you saved your whole life to give it Huckleberry. The wealthy of course simply buy luxury items in Mexico and Europe etc. Once you start explaining the wrinkles that will avoid these and other problems the whole "simplicity" that was supposed to save money goes out the window. Besides, the crap that he will simply fire HOW MANY civil service employees over at the IRS is just that CRAP. Reagan fired a couple hundred flight controllers who had BROKEN their contract and broken the law by doing so. The military could easily step in, is the army going to collect the sales tax? who is? It will collect itself, right? and enforce itself?

Two
economies are at play here.
When discussing the "National"economy only business is in the equasion. Businesses are doing well at the expense of the other economy, the personal one we all deal with constantly. Our personal costs have only gone up in my lifetime and I doubt they will ever stop rising. Meanwhile my income stays the same or rises at a slower rate. Therefore I can only make financial forecasts based on the 52 years I 've lived.
When the numbers are juggled to make any one group feel good and the reality on the ground doesn't match, trust in those figures goes out the door.

Economy
Health Insurance premiums are raising every 6 months. Co-insurance premiums are high and don't pick up much.
Illegal aliens are getting free health care each time they go to the ER's. Our government is handing Billions of our tax dollars over to foreigners and foreign countries everytime you turn around.
Everyday there are reports of more job losses due to outsourcing, or the factories can no longer compete with foreign labor making 30 cents per hour.
Yet, businesses bring back these cheaply made products and sell them at the same price as when we made them!
The economist, Alan Blinder, has predicted the USA will lose over 40 million jobs in a few years.
I want to know what foreign country will give us foreign aid?

Mr. Tucker
I know, you are not an Economist,so I won't go too fast.First of all,you have managed to reduce Capitalism to it's least form;goods and services.Capitalism is the only economic structure, that can be destroyed.Why?Because it has no government protection.Capitalism must provide it's own security,and it does this by offering a future, to those who want one.Capitalism,Mr. Rich,is a tool which will build a better "LIFE" for all mankind, if allowed to.So please don't reduce, the importance of this great mechanism.When it comes to "FORECASTING",a fool only has to be right once.However, those who claim to know,must be right every time.I am betting on the "FOOL"!!

Brilliant!
An outstanding analysis! The press has been all but lusting for a recession for the last 3 months and has been promoting that view in the media. The reality of the situation is, fortunately, much better for all of us.

Duh! Analysis
There is a huge difference between the work people do and our age-old accounting of money. The economy will always "be strong" since people get hungry every day. The economy (as the expression of labor to create goods and services to move those goods) will never cease. The economy as a record of numbers, however, is a huge mess. Both the creditors and the debtors are broke. No matter what the government does, it will make the problem worse. Work is good and necessary, but "capitalism's" accounting methods do not work. Never have, never will.
This essay sheds no real light on the problems we are facing. Like Pangloss in Voltaire's Candide, the author speaks eloquently but says nothing of value. He cannot tell the forest from the tree.

http://www.behappyandfree.com

liteside
In addition to your comments I would add a question. The Democrats enjoyed a massive turnout during the Iowa caucus in an apparent response to repeated calls for 'change'. This was obviously aimed at domestic policy as relates to the economy as that is what the big three in the campaign have made the issue. Unemployment in Iowa has been running under four percent and the biggest problem we face is government spending. What 'change' do the Democrat voters envision?

Personally I think a lot of people in this country are completely disconnected from reality.

Lifestyles
The main problems people are having is not due to the economy, it stems from vanity. I know so many people who have thrown away every financial windfall trying to live a lifestyle that ends up using every penny they can muster just to make the payments on it all. Let their personal finances take the slightest downturn and it all comes tumbling down.
I am retired now but when still in the working world if my income would support a Lexus I drove a KIA. When I had the means to own a $300,000 home I owned a $100,000 home.
Life is what you make it people. Trying to impress the neighbors with what you own, where you live and what you drive is a losing proposition.
If you can't exhibit a little self control, what the heck, just blame it on George Bush

Start of With a Lie
"an AP report from Dec. 4. 'Hiring practically stalled in December, driving the nation’s unemployment rate up to a two-year high of 5 percent and fanning fears of a recession,'"

This is false.

Secondly, the fact that consumers spend a lot on luxury items while consumer debt skyrockets as we approach the retirement of the baby boomers is not considered a good sign by many.

another Correct economic fore
I like the optomistic outlook on the economy.

Amish-like people like Heresyarch can rail about gold backed money all they want but no major currency in the world is backed by Gold because there is no Economic imperitive to do so.

In Oct or Nov 08 I will be retiring from my current job. I look at the economy and have no doubt that I will get another well paying job easily. Everyone I know that wants to work has work.

There are many doomsayers out there. And yes the economy and all sectors of the Market are cyclical. If you bet against the American Economic strength in the long run in my opinion based on every economic factor out there you will lose. The American Economy will be great with minor ups and downs for the "foreseable future" I wont speculate on 75-100 years from now but currently we are doing pretty good and will continue to do so.

Just my opinions and you can doubt me but I will still live in a nice house, drive nice cars, buy a nicer boat when I get back home and make money on my realestate and Stock Mutual Fund investments.

Rob aka Tinsldr2@yahoo.com

Economies
When people are free to exchange with one another, and government only intervenes to correct physical coercion, breach of contract, and fraud, it is at that point that an economy is at its best, and the people of that economy live most luxuriously. Beyond that, all government can do is get in the way.

A point not mentioned by many is that real wages rose faster then expected last month. Combining the fact that real wages rose faster then expected while unemployment increased faster then expected suggests that its the lower class, unskilled workers that are being effected the most by the down side of the economy. If I'm not mistaken, ealier last year, a bunch of well-meaning idiots in Washington patted themselves on the back for raising the minimum wage and looking out for the little guy. Those heartless enough to be against it gave the weak reason that it would cause unemployment. Guess those heartless small government advocates with weak reaoning were correct. So much for that idea of bigger government advocates looking out for the little guy.

Anna
...And if it comes after a Democrat is elected to the White House, you can bet it will be blamed on the Democrats even if it comes fifteen minutes after Inauguration.

BTW, I googled a speech by GWB when he talked about making it easier for more and more people to own their own homes (remember "the ownership society"?). And Bernake said something about "when we decided to broaden home ownership". Could there possibly be a connection between such attitudes at the top and the mortgage loan people being too lenient in their mortage loan policies?

Obesity and the Economy
Actually, the presence of overweight people doesn't necessarily indicate a strong economic position. When folks have little money to spend on food, they rely on cheap carbohydrates (pasta, beans, rice, Wonder Bread, tortillas etc). Different ethnic groups which tend to be poorer traditionally use lard and bacon fat in cooking and eat a lot of fried and high-sodium foods. Also lower-income people eat more fast food and are less into fitness; for one reason, they can't afford to belong to a health club, if money is all that tight. For another, fitness isn't always part of their culture. Take a look at who shops at expensive WholeFoods, Fresh Fields etc---leaner, fitter-looking people. You won't see many of those ladies whose flat-top behind is so big you could serve dinner on it.

Check it
Disney's attendance numbers dropped, I thought I read this/last year? There are quite a few more foreign tourist attending Disney because of the favorable exchange rate which might mask Tucker's assertion on that also.
I dont know who Tucker is talking to but my reading and personal interactions point to a big sqeeze on those in my world. I even read yesterday the small aircraft industry and luxury boat industries are experiencing some contractions. Now those two industries cater to a class of people better off than middle class. Why, if things are so rosy are they both complaining of contractions in business. Most small business owners are struggling.
I have even noticed where once there were consitantly strong geographical pockets of economic strength things are getting wobbly. More empty storefronts are showing up.
Local governments are scrambling to make up for lost tax revenues. A sure sign of economic downturn. Tucker is a little too quick and sure with his critique of the economy. Sometimes all there is to a rosy scenario are the thorns.

US economy
Denial is not just a river in Egypt.

Economic collapse is coming soon.

Pat Buchanan: Day of Reckoning
Great interviews with Pat Buchanan on trade, immigration and the economy!

Pat Buchanan: Day of Reckoning

WATCH VIDEO

http://controlcongress.com/uncategorized/pat-buchanan-day-o f-reckoning

Unemployment numbers up sharply
Economists reacting to the ugly rise in unemployment figures (remember, the stats have already been rigged to under-report) are “looking for a bunker to hide in.” Is it any wonder populist candidates are doing so well? As usual, Bush has his finger on the pulse, saying “the nation’s “financial markets are strong and solid.”

WSJ: The sharp jump in the unemployment rate — from 4.7% to 5.0% — may be the most alarming feature of this report. Single-month increases that large occur only rarely and most often near business cycle turning points. Indeed, the last time the unemployment rate rose 0.35 in a single month was September 2001. Tellingly, the jobless rate also jumped 0.3% in January of 2001, just before the business cycle peak in March 2001. –David Resler, Nomura Securities

READ MORE

http://controlcongress.com/uncategorized/unemployment-numbe rs-up-sharply


Trust the public's judgment
If the public doesn't like the way the economy is going, then trust them. They can tell something is wrong.

Any economy, capitalist or socialist, exists for the benefit of human beings. If it's not doing the job, then it needs to be fixed, not our own perceptions. We're not acolytes who are supposed to sacrifice our own well-being for the sake of Adam Smith or Karl Marx or Hayek or Galbraith. It's the reverse.

How things look depends on where you are
standing.

This is why one person can say that the economy is great and another thinks it sucks.

It also depend on how much capital and knowledge you have. A savy investor with money to spend can make a pile when everyone else's lives are tanking.

Although this is better than everyone swirling the drain together, it is not as good as having a country where everyone is properous.

In California, we are suffering, partly because of Socialism, and partly because of Globalism. Are there people in California making money? As far as I can tell, it is the Chinese nationals who are importer/exporters, who are building mansions in the hills.

The only person I know that is prospering just moved to Florida.

Yet another permabull monetarist.....
As the fed continues to float liquidity on the economy, sure the mirage of a healthy economy will continue....we just continue to build our house of (credit) cards taller and taller.

What goes up, must come down.

The subprime mortgage meltdown is in phase one....it isn't "last month's news", as Tucker believes.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/rockwell/mortgage-fix-mirage.htm l


Gary North who keeps his eye on this subprime mortgage meltdown has some interesting reading:

http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north591.html

Read also:
http://www.lewrockwell.com/rockwell/money-mania.html

then Tucker hedges his bets so he can keep his job when he is wrong:
"At some point our economy may, indeed, slide into recession."

For all those interested, just review the monetary policies of the fed prior to the great depression and look at the similarities.

Murray Rothbard explained the sources of these boom and bust cycles and the depression in his classic:

http://www.mises.org/store/Americas-Great-Depression-P63C0. aspx



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