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Saturday, February 10, 2007
Rich Tucker :: Townhall.com Columnist
The Truth is Out There
by Rich Tucker
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As Ronald Reagan used to say, the problem in Washington is “that so many people who go there know so many things that aren’t true.”

But maybe it’s not really their fault. After all, plenty of things seem true on the surface. It’s only when you dig into them a bit that you find, well, the truth. Consider “the deficit.”

In 2001 and again in 2003, President Bush cut taxes. In those years the deficit -- which thanks to the “peace dividend” had evaporated at the end of the Clinton administration -- came back with a vengeance. So the tax cuts must have caused the deficit spending, right?

That’s what some experts say. As Isaac Shapiro and Joel Friedman of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities wrote in 2004, “The Bush tax cuts have contributed to revenues dropping in 2004 to the lowest level as a share of the economy since 1950, and have been a major contributor to the dramatic shift from large projected budget surpluses to projected deficits as far as the eye can see.”

This explanation is admirably simple. It’s also incorrect.

As Heritage Foundation budget expert Brian Riedl explained in a recent paper, the cuts haven’t actually reduced federal income. In fact, they’ve boosted the economy so much that tax revenues have continued to soar.

The problem is that spending has increased even more quickly. And that will be the real problem in the years ahead. “Overall, revenues are projected to increase from 18 percent of GDP to almost 23 percent. Spending is projected to increase from 20 percent of GDP to at least 38 percent,” Riedl notes.

We can’t raise taxes high enough to pay for that additional spending. As Riedl writes, “Even repealing all of the 2001 and 2003 cuts would merely shave the projected budget deficit of 15 percent of GDP by less than 1 percentage point, and that assumes no negative feedback from raising taxes.”

It would be simple to repeal the Bush tax cuts. But that wouldn’t help solve our long-term problem. The answer is more difficult: Lawmakers must lock in the lower tax rates and get spending under control. Small wonder they don’t want to talk much about that.

Another area where the soundbite solutions won’t work is homeland security.

During the 2004 presidential campaign, Democrat challenger John Kerry said Bush wasn’t doing enough to protect our country. “There are a host of options that this president had available to him, like making sure that at all our ports in America containers are inspected,” Kerry intoned during the third presidential debate. “95 percent come in today uninspected. That’s not good enough.”

Sounds simple enough -- let’s inspect every container that comes into an American port, then we’ll be certain terrorists aren’t trying to smuggle in weapons. It seemed like such a good idea that House lawmakers included it in the recently-passed “9/11 Commission Recommendations Act of 2007,” a bill that was a cornerstone of Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s vaunted 100 hours of legislation.

However, as homeland security analyst James Carafano of The Heritage Foundation writes, “There is no business case for conducting 100 percent screening of cargo. The bill expects the private sector, foreign countries, and the U.S. government to spend billions of dollars on these inspections even though they would likely be no more effective than current programs.”

Such screening would be wasteful and also pointless. Carafano writes that we probably don’t yet have the technology to conduct complete inspections. Even if we did, it would take so long to examine all the information that many products would sit rotting on the docks while federal officials tried to review all the data about the containers they arrived in. Those are among the reasons the 9/11 Commission didn’t recommend 100-percent cargo screening.

Besides, terrorists have many other ways to get a weapon into our country. They could simply walk it across the unguarded Mexican or Canadian borders, for example. We need to be ready to handle all potential threats. As Carafano puts it, “Tax dollars should be spent on what offers the most security for the dollar spent, not on initiatives that make good election-year issues.”

There are no easy answers to these issues. But that’s why we elect representatives -- to lead us. The truth is out there, and they can find workable solutions -- if they’re willing to search for them.

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About The Author

Rich Tucker is an editor in Washington D.C. and a columnist for Townhall.com.

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Ummmm.....
> it would take so long to examine all the
> information that many products would sit
> rotting on the docks while federal officials
> tried to review all the data about the
> containers they arrived in.

Why?

It took a couple of weeks for the boats that were carrying them to get over here, we aren't talking air cargo here. (Although why hasn't anyone mentioned air cargo as a hazard after the known affinity for aircraft and the firey consequences of a large airplane blowing up over an American city.)

There also is already a lot of paperwork on these containers - enough for someone to figure out whose truck to put them onto and for the driver of that truck to (hopefully) take them to where they are going. In many cases there are paperwork requirements for the truckdriver going over the road after they leave the port.

So, like, how incompetent does a government employee have to be not to be able to read this paperwork? Particuarly since it is almost all electronic data and bar codes. (And increasingly RFID.)

I WANT stuff coming into the country to be searched. If they are going to go through my trunk when I come back from Canada, shouldn't someone sorta go through the really big trunks coming from terrorist-infested countries?

Pirate, what do you mean...
"It took a couple of weeks for the boats that were carrying them to get over here, we aren't talking air cargo here"...are you suggesting someone ride-along & check the cargo en route?

And what part of...
"terrorists have many other ways to get a weapon into our country. They could simply walk it across the unguarded Mexican & Canadian borders" don't you understand?

Fact is, container ships are checked at port of origin as well as port of destination in an attempt to keep it time/cost effective. And when I heard my Junior Senator utter those words highlighted in this article I waited patiently for his plan to accomplish the deed.
I'm still waiting but my patience has run its course and, I am now willing to listen to ANYBODY'S plan. I don't hear anything coming from either side of the aisle. You got one?

methodology
I like the standard of substantiation reflected here. Somebody claims something that Tucker wants to be false. Against this is mentioned somebody who says something that Tucker wants to be true. Therefore what Tucker wants to be true must be true. Of course using this method if one simply shuffles the paragraphs around it turns out that the opposite conclusions are true.

It does not seem to be a good method to get at the truth since one can only get at ones preconceived notions. But it does seem like a good method for making oneself feel good since all of ones preconceived notions come out to be true.

Lon
You are entirely correct. We are not given specifics in order to determine the truth of any of the claims. There are no references to the supporting material.

This goes to something I learned in debate competition in high school. You can get quotes from experts on all sides of any topic.

Instead of assigning truth, let's look at the some of the apples-to-oranges comparisons of the tax revenue quotes.

Is the definition of "economy" and "tax revenue" of 1950 the same as that of today? If Shapiro and Friedman (obviously not Milton) recalculated either the 1950 or 2004 values to the other year, do the recalculated values represent meaningful values given the economy of the time?

Shapiro and Friedman used the specific years 1950 versus 2004. The second quote specified projected tax, budget and GDP numbers.

Even if the definitions and projections are correct, a large spike in the size of the economy (or GDP) would cause the percentage to go down. The reverse is also true.

Also, only the projected values compare the percentages of revenues vs. GDP and budget vs. GDP. If the projections are correct, Rich Tucker does show that increased spending is more of a problem than than tax revenues.

There's also an assumption that increases of tax revenues vs. GDP are a good thing. As a small government person, I want those percentages to go down.

The TRUTH
Maybe we need Jack Nicholson to stand up and tell us all what the TRUTH is. It all falls into place once you arrive at the overriding political theory of our time. And that is this model for the truth; “All of my politicians are telling the truth, all of your politicians are lying.” I think that all of us posters at TH can agree to that.

The Truth

My politicians lie and so do everyone's.
Mostly when they try to follow polls.

Another thing. If I hear Reid or Pelosi say
bipartisan one more time, I will SPEW.

Working together?
Most of the major issue's we face today are more of a internal problem than an external. Both political parties talk about bipartisan work but do more to split everyone apart. In this PC world we now live in you really don't hear the term "common sense" much today. Common sense would have said that the border needed to be secure after 9/11 for our national security but instead we play politics and worry about the rights of illegal aliens. Common sense would say we need to finish the job in Iraq simply because we started it but bleeding hearts say to quit. Truth? The truth is that everyone wants to be heard. Everyone wants to pick a "side" to be on. Everyone wants to show thier anger and make choices based on emotion. The real truth is that we can't put our petty differences aside and try to do what common sense tells us to do because we all too busy caught up the red-tape of emotion!

We do need some short of system
But, 100 percent inspections are never going to happen. We don't have 100 percent inspections of ANYTHING, in this country. Not meat, dairy, building code compliance, etc.

I believe the inspections should be stepped up a few percentage points to make terrorists think twice about whether their plans might be thwarted, but 100 percent inspection would be cost probihitive. There is only so much money to go around. I'd rather we work on securing the borders, including the one with Canada (remembering that's how several of the 911 terrorists entered this country), than trying to make an impossible goal of 100 percent inspection of cargo containers.
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