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Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Rich Galen :: Townhall.com Columnist
Keep the Faith
by Rich Galen
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Poll
Will the Dems' health care Christmas Present to America be an improvement or detriment to our health care system?


It is that time in the election cycle when the faithful can become confused, the confused can become disenchanted, and the disenchanted can tune out.

Using the Galen Theory of Poll Interpretation - throw out the high (CBS/NY Times) and the low (Investors Business Daily) and whatever is left is probably right - Obama is now leading McCain by about seven percentage points.

That is not the end of the world as we know it. That isn't even CLOSE to the end of the world as we know it.

With the global financial system teetering on the brink of going back to trading in wampum and the War on Terror no closer to being won than it was in January 2002 and housing prices continuing to drop and unemployment continuing to rise and who-knows-what-else is going wrong … Obama shouldn't be ahead by 6.5 percentage points; he should be ahead by SIXTEEN percentage points.

Ok, so why isn't Obama ahead by double digits?

I think it's because the world is as dangerous as it is.

Think about Barak Obama not as a candidate for President, but as a race car driver. Which NASCAR team would give the keys to the car to a guy who has just learned to drive?

It is much more likely that they would send him back to the minor leagues for a few years of seasoning.

And it is very likely that American voters, before they pull the lever, fill in the circle, press the button or punch out the chad; will decide that Barack Obama needs some more seasoning before they allow him to take the tiller of the Ship of State and vote for John McCain.

So, a six-to-seven percentage point lead with three weeks to go is not enough for Obama to start looking at paint sample for the First Family Residence.

The big problem for the GOP isn't that Obama has a mid-single-digit lead in the national polls. The big problem for the GOP is that rank-and-file voters will decide that this race is over and not bother to go to the polls.

The Obama campaign is depending upon the jillions of young people - mostly college students - voting for the first time and voting for Obama.

If Republican voters fall into the trap being laid by the media that the Presidential race is over then Obama will win by default.

Not only that, but if Republicans give up on this election then down-ballot candidates will lose as well. Republican candidates for United States Senate, Members of Congress, State House and Senate, County Commission and City Council across the nation will be swept aside - not because they were not good candidates and not because they didn't perform well as incumbents; but because Republicans stayed home.

Didn't vote.

Left it to the Democrats.

Is that what you want? Me neither.

It is not a surprise to me that the CBS News/NY Times poll has Obama leading by the largest margin. I'm not suggesting they are lying, but it is not unknown in survey research to apply weighting to the results to affect the results.

If we allow the Coastal Elites to decide for the rest of us who will hold the reins of political power then we deserve what we get: - Obama as President - A 60-vote Democrat Senate Majority - A huge Democrat majority in the House - Two new Liberal members of the US Supreme Court. Don't like that? Then don't buy the Liberal hype. This race has three weeks to go and this is how it can be won:

- Win your precinct
- Win enough precincts and we win the county
- Win enough counties and we win the state
- Win enough states and we win the White House.

It's just that easy.

For the next three weeks, work hard and keep the faith.
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About The Author

Rich Galen has been a press secretary to Dan Quayle and Newt Gingrich. Rich Galen currently works as a journalist and writes at Mullings.com

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(25 comments so Far)
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Reply # 1
Date: Oct 17, 2008 - 12:14 AM EST
Mr. Galen
Have you learned nothing? By themselves, Democrats are completely helpless. They are both ideologically and practically incompetent, and they don't do anything without Republicans taking the lead on it. Look at the bailout saga. That was years and years of Dem-GOP politics condensed into a week. Republicans developed the plan in response to a crisis caused by the government (including Republicans) with the Democrats shrieking and demanding in the background. After some initial resistance, GOP Congressmen who were inclined to resist the bailout were eventually threatened, guilted, and bribed into voting yea. They caved. That is the entire history of the Republican Party.

If Republicans would just stop cooperating with Democrat rabble-rousing for collectivism, the crap would stop. Democrats have nothing, and they know it. Instead, the GOP has been spiritually and politically cowardly, always fearing the consequences of not showing enough "compassion" and always "me-tooing" the Democrats. Where has it gotten us? To total, unmitigated destruction, and defeat for the GOP.

Yet, Republican voters are expected to dutifully vote for these same individuals who are responsible for our destruction, on the grounds that the Democrats are much worse, even though the Democrats are not worse. The Democrats do not do anything, and nothing is far superior to the "something" which the GOP has been doing to this country.
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Reply # 2
Date: Oct 16, 2008 - 9:06 PM EST
faith
When the news media try to tell me that Obahma is winning I have only one thing to say.

DEWEY WINS ELECTION.

Dont underestamate the intelegence of the American public. Have faith and win.
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Reply # 3
Date: Oct 16, 2008 - 2:09 PM EST
Voters have a choice. Below are
issues where Obama, Jr. and JSM have different positions:

BHO supports growing government

BHO supports raising taxes

BHO supports more government intrusion of individual freedoms

BHO supports unrestricted abortion including partial-birth abortion

BHO supports legitimization and advancement of same-sex sodomy.

BHO supports more gun control laws

BHO supports judges who rule based on their ideologies rather than written law

BHO supports surrender in Iraq

BHO supports weakening the U.S. military

BHO supports more international control of national governments

JSM opposes all of the above. There are differences between BHO, Jr. and JSM. If none of the above issues are important to you, than you are naturally a BHO, Jr. supporter.
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Reply # 4
Date: Oct 16, 2008 - 10:50 AM EST
I have faith
I have faith that politics will continue as usual. I have faith that America will follow, and is following, the exact same course that other nations have followed and for the same reason. POLITICS.

And I have faith that we will end just like all the others and for the same reason. POLITICS.

America has become a nation of wimps. One woman who watched the debate last night on one of the media channels said she was "afraid" of McCain's demeanor and she thought Obama "had more self-discipline." This woman would rather trust her life, and the lives of EVERYONE in this nation, to a Harvard educated, self-controlled wimp rather than to a man who has graduated from the premier Military Academy of this nation and who has sat his butt in the cockpit of a Navy fighter and flown it into the battle.

When we have people like that voting, all is lost because she does not have enough brains to protect herself or her friends and neighbors. It is said that self-preservation is a "basic instinct."

Well it isn't for democrats!!!
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Reply # 5
Date: Oct 15, 2008 - 8:01 PM EST
Check this guy's bait and switch
First he says okay, I'll concede Obama's leading by about 7 points.
Next paragraph down, he says Obama's leading by 6.5 points.
Two paragraphs later, he says Obama has a "mid-single-digit lead." What are the mid single digits? I think they are: 4, 5, 6.
Slate.com averages the poll results, and has Obama leading McCain 50.2 to 42. They also have a map of the US indicating which states are leaning which way. I think and hope, although I could be disappointed again like I was in 2000 and 2004, that this trend means American citizens are finally tired of being played for suckers. I think they're getting really tired of the religious bombast as well. No one knows really whether Obama will keep his promises. But at this point, any change seems like change for the better.
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Reply # 6
Date: Oct 15, 2008 - 7:03 PM EST
ube!
Not sure what you mean by “You could be voting for ‘GOD, FAMILY, REPUBLIC.’” Ya might want to unpack that one a little.

This, however, is clear: “But you don't have the backbone to elect real conservatives from the Constitution Party to any office, local state, or national.”
I’ll play with that idea in a sec, but re-read yourself here:

“If you needed any evidence to prove that the[re] is not [a] [G]od, it is that you are shep[h]erdless sheep who fallow any wolf in sheep's clothing to your sla[ugh]ter.”

Now I don’t give a damn about the typos, I make em all the time, myself, they don’t signify, just wanted to clarify what I think you are saying for the thread. But you GOT to think about what you are saying here, Ube! The question is WHO ARE YOU following?! What are your Driving Principles here? Cause if YOU DON’T KNOW then how are YOU NOT “a shepherd-less sheep” following a tarted up Wolf to YOUR slaughter? How do you KNOW, Ube, what IS IT that you ARE following?
Because when you choose the action you choose the CONSEQUENCES, Ube. I’ve been saying for YEARS now that it is CLEAR (try ANY of those “Candidate Match things) that Conservatives, Constitution, Natural Law, Libertarians, Reform Party–ALL ARE MUCH CLOSER TO EACH OTHER THAN ANY ARE TO THE COMMIEQRS!

So WHY ain’t you BUILDING BRIDGES, Ube? Why come here and go all Postal on Believers when you COULD be MARKETING the VALUES WE SHARE?
Or are the Constitutionalists just as Faux Conservative as the Pseudolibertinearians–only interested in their Kiddy Porn and Pot and their God-hatred to the exclusion of ALL ELSE we could be doing TOGETHER?

The Big Mick
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Reply # 7
Date: Oct 15, 2008 - 6:45 PM EST
reader et all
I emailed Galen and without sharing confidences, I think he sees value in the idea of a Conservative Party as well.

Somebody who knows somebody who can make the call to Rush, Sean, Levin, Coulter, Ingram, Newt, Malkin, some of the Think Tank guys,
and, above all the Political Merlin--King Making Wizard of our Age, Dick Morris and have them all over for dinner, and a little Revolutionary Conversation needs to get moving on this.

The Big Mick

mick
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Reply # 8
Date: Oct 15, 2008 - 6:38 PM EST
paradimz
Pardigm? Pair of dimes? Pair of Dims?

I was right with you. Was going to vote "none of the above" here in VA by write in.

That was Pre-Palin.

'Cuda's got a 65-80% approval rating for actually PRODUCING CHANGE for the BETTER!--i.e.
REFORM. She's got 65% plus EXPERIENCE in GOVERNING CHANGE!

You got it right about the 3 Loser Stooges from the Failed Worst Congress in History.

Palin's batting .800.

They're batting .090.

I know who I'm batting at "clean up."

The Big Mick
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Reply # 9
Date: Oct 15, 2008 - 6:24 PM EST
Mad Cow disease
The entire herd of politicians has it. The whole herd has to go. I am voting. If the candidate is an incumbent they don't get my vote. In the case of President they both have the disease so neither will get my vote.
All you are chosing is which batch of problems you want to have to deal with the next four years. Neither of these men are going to improve the national condition, beliefs to the contrary notwithstanding. '
This forum ranted against McCain with the same fevor it now rants against O'Bama. We know we are not making a choice with a difference.
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Reply # 10
Date: Oct 15, 2008 - 6:08 PM EST
to uber NY
DUDE,???YOU DONT BELIEVE IN GOD??WHY ARE YOU ON TOWN HALL???OK WE WILL PRAY FOR YOU!
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Reply # 11
Date: Oct 15, 2008 - 2:14 PM EST
You have been warned
No you have been warned.

You could be voting for "GOD, FAMILY, REPUBLIC."

But you don't have the backbone to elect real conservatives from the Constitution Party to any office, local state, or national.

If you needed any evidence to prove that their is not god, it is that you are sheperdles sheep who fallow any wolf in sheep's clothing to your slater.
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Reply # 12
Date: Oct 15, 2008 - 2:09 PM EST
Keep the faith in what?
Faith in the belief that when you vote Republican your voting Conservative.

As they say "fool you once shame on me.... fool you for thirty years..... your just gullible sheep and shepherd is fast asleep."


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Reply # 13
Date: Oct 15, 2008 - 1:56 PM EST
You have been warned
Look, I don't like the socialist leanings of the current Republican leadership. I have not seen any vision from the leaders of the Republican Party; however, I cannot live with the consequences of an OBAMA presidency with 60% control of the Senate and large majority of the House. If nothing else, vote for the Republican in the Senate and House races and vote for the Independent for President if you must and cannot stomach a vote for McCain. I would not worry so much about an Obama presidency if CONSERVATIVES had control of Congress; but we don't. Nothing is being said about the Congressional races, but they are as important as the Presidential race. Get off your butts on election day and vote for your conservative Representative and Senator if they are up for election. Don't give the socialist Democrats control of everything!
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Reply # 14
Date: Oct 15, 2008 - 1:49 PM EST
Big Mick,
I'd join the conservative party if I could. McCain isn't going to get my vote. He's behaved like a democrat for years and now he's supporting the bail out - with my money. I'd vote for Palin, but I'm not voting for him. I'm looking at the constitution party as an alternative. Bob Barr has destroyed the libertarians chances of getting my vote. I may not vote for anyone for president - but I will not stay home, I just won't get my vote to McCain.
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Reply # 15
Date: Oct 15, 2008 - 1:27 PM EST
There is still hope
With ALL the medias help, you are right Obama should be much further ahead. I am convinced that Republicans are not nearly as vocal as the Democrats. I think there will be a large surge for McCain closer to Novemer 4th, when all these questions about Obama come to a head. If you stay home and do not vote, that is a vote for the opposition.
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Reply # 16
Date: Oct 15, 2008 - 1:09 PM EST
Obama have not convinced anyone
McCain have tried to hand Obama the election, I thought but he may have just been giving Obama the rope to hang himself. Obama have let go of ties so Mccain was aware of ACORN voter registration practices. Do we forget Obama claim to fame was registering voters as a community organizer for the ACORN.
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Reply # 17
Date: Oct 15, 2008 - 1:03 PM EST
By the way
Our cowardly, Quisling, collaborator, fellow travelor GOPper Leaders did NOTHING to secure the Franchise from Voter FRAUD low these 8 years, KNOWING what Cheats the dumbolcrap/commiqrs ARE.

Why?

I say the whole GOP has gone COMIQR and has betrayed the Republic. I'll vote for Palin but the rest can kisz my asz and go to Hell for their betrayal.

This Reagan Conservative has Divorced the Abusive Spouses of the Conservative Free GOP and has changed my registration to Independent.

Time to start Organizing the Conservative Party, building bridges to the Libertarians, Constitutionalists, etc and tell the GOP to go suck democrap/comiqr member where they belong.

Mick
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Reply # 18
Date: Oct 15, 2008 - 12:58 PM EST
More elite garbage!
AJ, don't stay home, vote Independent/Third Party. It is the only way we can break up the virtual lock on power by the two major parties.

This lock on power ensures that every election is a battle for control and the next election begins as soon as the polls close. Because the elites have duped the nation into voting the lesser of two evils every election, we continually get more evil. More power flows to the two elite parties, and partisanship replaces leadership. The effects trickle down to the state and local level and "we the people" get left out!

If you care to see how the elites have literally STOLEN OUR INHERITANCE, you need to visit my website, JOEOLIVAFORPRESIDENT.ORG. Voting the same old way will not give us a different result.

As the rightful owners of this great nation, we should re-assert our authority and deny the elites the Presidency! This is the only course of action that will bring new thinking and innovative and creative solutions to the challenges ahead. It is the only way we can begin a restoration of Constitutional self government. Check out the website, you will not be disappointed. Thanks, Joe
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Reply # 19
Date: Oct 15, 2008 - 12:58 PM EST
kristine
Have been making some of the same arguments for a year. See my The Big Mick blog on TH.
Only Palin in Maverick's back seat changed that.

I going to vote Palin/Mack the Knife rather than "none of the above" like I was planning here in VA, but I can't condemn those who say the Repube Party has gone down the "Follow the Moderate Road to the Socialist Abyss". The Robber Barons of the Rockyfeeler Gilt Birt Cabin Conservative Free GOP have been betraying us since Reagan. They gave us Mack the Knife to try and extinguish Reaganism in the GOP and to make sure no ANTI-Amnesty Candidate was a choice.
I say they ARE CINO/RINO Socialist GOPpers and don't blame anybody for telling them to go to Hell! Look at the way McAin't continues to waffle and wimp and speak nice about Bomiecommie. He's a coward, a compromiser, a quisling. Whatever he had in the Hanoi Hilton he left there.
I'll vote for Palin, but if you want to say to the McChurian Candidate "screw you" I commend you.

The Big Mick
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Reply # 20
Date: Oct 15, 2008 - 12:41 PM EST
She's right, you know!
Thank you Kristine!

On Nov. 4th this 86 year old life-long Republican will stay home and tend her garden. (I'll need the food when Pres. Obama takes over.)
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Reply # 21
Date: Oct 15, 2008 - 12:37 PM EST
O isn't ahead 20% in NJ where
voter registration is 3-1 Dem. He should statistically be head 60-20.

If this *credit crunch* which now seems to be the October surprise of 2008 is really *easing* already and the stock market rallies strongly in the next couple weeks, the bad ec. Dems. need to win--whadda party--may not be the voter go-getter socialists want;

ergo, the Great O may not get to increase

the $109 trillion debt, mostly Dems. as they've held Cong. 66 out of 80 years;

annual deficites of billions--when FDR started deficit spending, the US had NO DEBT;

or preside over more credit disasters and bailouts down the road as the Dem. Freddie and Fannie, Community Red. Acts, ACORN, Barney Frank and the usual suspects are ALL STILL IN PLACE.
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Reply # 22
Date: Oct 15, 2008 - 12:04 PM EST
odd history lesson
Has anyone in recent times been up by 16% under any circumstances? We had poor economic conditions and the Iran hostage crisis in the 1980 election and Reagan didn't begin pulling away in the polls until the end.

It seems hard to put much significance in the fact that Obama is not ahead by margins that noone is ever ahead.

Does anyone know of an election which actually supports Galen's optimism?
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Reply # 23
Date: Oct 15, 2008 - 11:17 AM EST
A heads-up to Silver Lion, Kristine
Due to Harper's pyrrhic victory (143 out of 308 seats won--though up from 127 in 2006, still not a majority), McCain may have a chance of victory on 11/4.

Pulldown (contrary to BBC's, and other LSM's, idea that Harper's necessary cut of taxpayer funding for arts hit his votes in QC) was from morON, Canada's most-populous (nearly 40%) province--a fact which LSM never allows to get in the way of exaggerating QC's influence on the election.
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Reply # 24
Date: Oct 15, 2008 - 10:50 AM EST
McCain is another...
Bob Dole....The only reason I will show up is because of Palin....she MAY be able to talk some sense into the old coot!
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Reply # 25
Date: Oct 15, 2008 - 10:00 AM EST
Keep the faith in what?
John McCain sang a horribly wrong note when he started off the debates with his genuflecting comment to 'poor' Teddy Kennedy as 'the lion of the senate.' It reminded us all of this open borders collusion and anything else he might collude on that is not in our best national interests. It told us what we could expect from a McCain. He is what he is, but we don't necessarily like it.

Then he tells us to fight but he doesn't. Why, because he is basically rather weak.

We are sick of being expected to go to the polls and vote for people we know are cookie cutter politicians and who will not live up to what we expect should be our country's standards. The now Socialist-Republicans think we'll come around, because we have no choice. The other side of your argument in your article might be that we should go to the polls but vote for a third party. We'd lose the election for sure, but we'd see what the Socialist-Republican party needs to do to rehabilitate itself.

If this debate is more of the same, maybe we should ALL strongly consider it.


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