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Monday, April 30, 2007
Rich Galen :: Townhall.com Columnist
A strategic trap
by Rich Galen
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Congressional Democrats are doing an end zone victory dance over their passage of Iraq funding legislation which includes specific dates for withdrawing the troops.

In the House, the Conference Report for HR 1591 passed by 218-208. In the Senate it passed 51-46. Two Republicans - Chuck Hagel of Nebraska and Gordon Smith of Oregon were the only Republicans to vote with the Democrats.

SIDEBAR

For a brief (and probably incorrect) discussion of "Conference Reports" go to the Secret Decoder Ring page.

END SIDEBAR

The problem for the Democrats (who have slightly re-written history to have us all believe that the 2006 elections were all and only about Iraq) is this: The hard Left of the country wants the US out of Iraq now, not in October of 2008 and not in August of 2510. Now.

When Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev) says the war in Iraq is already lost, the MoveOn.Org wing of the Democratic party wants to know why the Democrats are voting to spend any additional money on Iraq - with or without strings.

The New Republic - a well-respected, if leftist, journal - discussed this conundrum in a piece about the Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Carl Levin (D-Mich), a Liberal Democrat. He went to Ann Arbor, the home of the University of Michigan also not a hotbed of centrism.

Levin goes to Ann Arbor and gets … booed. Not only are the demonstrators against the war, but they are ugly, anti-Semitic demonstrators holding up signs which say, "AIPAC Owns Levin" a reference to the American-Israeli Political Action Committee.

According to Eve Fairbanks' piece in TNR:

"In April, Levin [had] insisted 'we're not going to vote to cut funding, period' and that Democrats would ultimately have to strip the withdrawal timetable - precious to war opponents - from the supplemental budget."

SIDEBAR II

Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson musta been busy because I haven't seen any coverage of them leading counter-demonstrations against anti-Semitism at U. Mich.

END SIDEBAR II

Again, from The New Republic piece, in March, Reid had to send a supplemental bill to the Senate floor which was much less restrictive than the House version "to keep centrist Democrats like Ben Nelson (D-Neb) on board."

The problem for the Democrats is what we've been trying to tell them since this Congress opened for business: It's easy to be in the minority - all you have to do is say "No." When you are in the majority you have to actually cobble together legislation which (a) will pass the House (b) will pass the Senate and (c) will be signed by the President.

Harry Reid's ratcheting up his rhetoric is likely to further inflame the anti-war Left who will not be mollified by anything short of a total cut-off of funds for any purpose other than buying gas to get the Humvees out of the Iraqi desert.

In essence, they want to know why Harry Reid isn't putting his mouth where his money is.

Look for the anti-war types to up the ante against Democrats who are not toeing the out-of-Iraq line. That will force more Democrats - like those running for President - to slide farther over toward the "Declare Defeat and Leave" crowd.

That may satisfy the Coastal Democrats - those who live in New York and Massachusetts on the East Coast and San Francisco and LA on the West - but it will not sit well with those Democrats in places like Southern Ohio and Central Missouri who may not like the way this war has gone; but don't like America being called "a loser" by their elected officials.

In a fifty-fifty country, if the Democrats - again - become seen as the party of defeat, that might will tip the scales in favor of the Republican candidate for President in 2008.

The Iraq strategy being followed by the Congressional Democrats may well be a strategic trap of their own making.

On a the Secret Decoder Ring page today: Links to the House and Senate web pages on the vote for the Iraq funding bill; the National Review article, and the Sidebar on Conference Reports. Also a Mullfoto and a Catchy Caption of the Day honoring the memory of Star Trek's Mr. Scott.

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About The Author

Rich Galen has been a press secretary to Dan Quayle and Newt Gingrich. Rich Galen currently works as a journalist and writes at Mullings.com

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analysis already dated
But the analysis in the New Republic article apparently is already dated. The bill that left the committee included the harsher elements of the House and Senate versions, and Nelson voted for it anyway. And on the other side, even the out of Iraq now conference (or whatever they are called) freed up enough of their members to get the bill passed in the House.

Where the above analysis goes wrong is in assuming that because the country is roughly 50/50 split between the parties it is split 50/50 on the war. In fact the split on the war is closer to 65/35 which gives the democrats a fair amount of wiggle room.

Reid and Nelson have not moved against the war because the left has forced them, they have moved against the war because the center has moved in that direction giving them cover. Nelson does not have much of a left to be concerned about.

A trap is only a trap if it gest sprung
How many times have you thought, "Oooooh, they've gotten the Democrats to overplay their hand, again. This is either a clever Republican trap, or another tactical blunder." And which does it always turn out to be?

A Presidential address to the Nation on "Why are we Fighting in Iraq" could frame the discussion by reminding everyone of the strategic implications of success and failure, as well as how we got there in the first place.

Such an address would frame the discussion for weeks to come and expose the weaknesses in the Democrats' strategy.

The Democrats, having taken a hard position that is a stupid idea, are vulnerable. This topic can be a strength for Republicans if public opinion can catch up to reality and truth. Convince the electorate and the Democrats will follow.

Just don't hold your breath.

A spellchecker is only a spellchecker
if it GETS used. Not gest.

Sorry.

The Ongoing Battle
What is going on in DC is a battle for the soul of America. Are we going to be the great world power we have a right to expect? Or are we going to be the "pitiful, helpless giant" that the Left desires?

At the same, there's another debate going on.

On my much-visited blog (click on name above) there's a battle going on for "the soul of conservatism." See the exchange between liberal Jessica and (conservative) me. If you'd like to join it, be my guest.

steve

Lon
The Center has in fact not moved at all. Otherwise, you would see large majorities move in both houses of Congress (as they did in 1974) to remove funding immediately. These majorities would be veto proof. There is not one GOP Senator who values the life of a soldier more than his own office. But that hasn't happened.

Despite all of the heated Democratic rhetoric, party leaders do perform weekly internal polling. Sometimes, somehow the results get leaked; at other times thier actions speak for the polls. The GOP does it as well.

What the polls do show is a reflection of 2 things: a)The MSMs continued defeatist spin b)The lack of anyone in the WH (including the President) to speak and defend his actions. Nature abhors a vaccum, and if the President doesn't explain his actions, his opposition will.

There are actually some very profound reasons why this campaign was fought, and should be fought with to its proper conclusion. The ball was dropped as early as Jan 2002 when fighting was still raging in Afghanistan. He turned the exitensitial over to the lawyers. Has anyone ever wondered at the similarities between the war's opposition and the legal field. Its all about technicalities (WMDs, forged Niger documents, etc...) and little about how radical Islam infiltrated the US and EU, how successfull the Islamic radicals have been in Thailand, Checnya, Horn of Africa, and the Philipines. Nothing was said about Iran's nuclear program, or the fact the Al Qaida (remember Al Zarqawi?) was operating from Bagdhad. If we entered WWII with today's mindset, the opposition would be investigating Admiral King, and whether he knew of the impedning attack on 7 Dec and allowed it inorder to further FDR's agenda. Bush dropped the ball. Loyalty before competency. Even the victory over the Taliban in 2001 was done in spite of the DOD's insistence that the Army would need 6 months to prepare. Rumsfedl own insistence of a Dec 2001 start date brought in the 5th SOG. The 5th SOG was in Afghanistan by Sept 20th. General Frank's incompetence in Afghanistan forshadowed things to come.

The Center still believes that victory is still obtainable in Iraq. Otherwise, the Left would not be so desperate to get out. Reid and Pelosi are privvy to the same Intel that the President gets vis-a-vis Iraq. Stability there would be a major political catastrophe for the Dems. They measure everything by the politcal outcome, even national security. They both showed thier hands too soon. Now, thier entire future rides on our humiliating defeat.

Thus far the surge is working in the Anbar Province, as well as several Shia cities in the South. Al Sadr has fled to Iran, and while terror strikes are common in Bagdhad still, there are indications that the terror cells are being squeezed. Even the local populations are beginning to turn in Al Qaida and Shia terror members. This news is what most assuredly has Reid and Pelosi concerned. What happens if we do in fact win?


Are You Directionally Challenged?
Why is it that when Republicans speak, any initiative coming from even one inch left of center is called "hard left, left wing, looney left, anarchistic, moonbattic, bomb-throwing, wild-eyed, insane, crazy, Socialist, Communist, terroristic, America-hating, treasonous, etc"...

while any initiative coming from the right of center and all the way unto the right-hand horizon is called "centrist, traditional, patriotic, American"?

JPK
Yes you are right, the voters gave the Democrats a big victory in the last election because they wanted to send the message that the Republicans are right on the war.

Pelosi and Reid have been getting increasingly more determined on the war while Grassley is pushing for some kind of a settlement because their polls tell them that the republicans have a winning hand to play.

Spread the message. The more the Republicans believe you the better things will be.

Lon
If the Dems believed the public wanted the war to end immeidately, wouldn't they just deny funding for anything other than withdrawal?

The fact that they have put in "withdrawal but not yet" language tells me they think the public is not ready yet to cry "uncle" and run.

Try to explain their actions any toher way and it doesn't work. The Dems know the public is not as close to the cut and run camp as they are, so they have to hedge their bets and stall for a while while the MSM erodes morale more.

JPK,
you say,
"Reid and Pelosi are privvy to the same Intel that the President gets vis-a-vis Iraq."

ALL intelligence is filtered by Darth Cheney before any Democrats get to see it. If such weren't the case, how could Bush have "lied" about what the intelligence said?

Actually
The Neo-Con agenda has botched things so badly on every front there won't be another Republican President, not in 2008, nor ever. My moderate and a few hard line conservative Republican friends are wavering, not wanting to be one of the stooges anymore. I can't believe one of my most conservative friends confided to me in person that the more time passes it becomes more and more glaringly apparent that the Left was more right all along. They're not going pro-choice or anything nuts like that, but they are simply dumfounded by the utter hypocracy and incompetance.
The strategy that was supposed to make everyone hate big(or any government for that matter) government and politicians not only continues to backfire, but is picking off it's most loyal supporters one by one, like a gun that fires backwards but misses the firer.
Political attrition of the neo-cons has become such an artform it can be no nonger described as attrition, it's become a slaughter. Now, it's only a matter of time before the grand admission is made "Great people of America I have no strategy and now I have no army"
The rise and fall of the neo-cons ends with political equivalent of Pickett's Charge. Bush's Surge will cause the breakup of the weak conferation of fiscals, socials and moderates. The downfall of the GOP is at hand and there is a way out, but it's not a neo-con way.
Anyone who says otherwise mind as well be trumpeting "O'SOLO MIO" through every sphincter they have.
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