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Monday, November 06, 2006
Rich Galen :: Townhall.com Columnist
It ain't over till it's...
by Rich Galen
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Poll
Will the Dems' health care Christmas Present to America be an improvement or detriment to our health care system?


  • It is also unlikely that the Democrats will win anything like 30 seats which would give THEM a similar majority in the next Congress.
  • The most likely outcome is that the Democrats will win control of the House by a margin of six or seven seats - a net win of 20 or 21 seats.
  • The next most likely outcome is that the GOP will hold onto control by three or four seats - a loss of 11 or 12 seats.
  • It is possible that Tuesday will produce the Democratic blowout which has become the insider's view here in Washington, but that would surprise me.
  • Remember that in 1998 the GOP went into election NIGHT thinking it had a lock on a pickup of 8 - 10 seats. They lost five.
  • The difference was Democratic turnout which was not picked up in the pre-election polling.
  • It is quite possible the same thing will happen on Tuesday - in either direction. Ken Mehlman and the Republican National Committee have a highly organized (and highly touted) turnout operation. Howard Dean and the Democratic National Committee have been spending millions of dollars to catch up.
  • We'll see who's program actually turns out voters.
  • As we talked about a couple of weeks ago, if you want to be successful in politics you have to stay in the fight until the final citizen goes to the final polling place and casts the final vote.
  • On the Secret Decoder Ring page today: A link to the Pew Poll. Also for those of you in the Washington, DC area a link to a great opportunity to participate in a local March of Dimes event. A Mullfoto from New Jersey which reminds us why we are not all that fond of New Jersey and a Catchy Caption of the Day.
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    About The Author

    Rich Galen has been a press secretary to Dan Quayle and Newt Gingrich. Rich Galen currently works as a journalist and writes at Mullings.com

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    Pollsters
    Most polls aren't woth the powder to blow them to hell. The generic poll is really a joke. The only useful polls are more specific. Do you approve of congress - 16% yes recently - way too vague to be informative. Do you approve of the job your own representative is doing - 60% recently shows the normal pro-incumbent sentiment. As election day approaches, races always tighten up. It's very easy to blow off stea to a pollster, but once you enter the voting booth the gravity of the act kicks in and sanity takes over.

    The way polling questions are phrased has more to do with the results than the sentiment of the sample(Are you going to vote for a Dem or are you a dipsh*t?)(Do you agree with compassionate people who support Demos?)

    dmathew1: change your name to Phillip Nolan Jr.

    RINOs
    Don't forget Graham and Warner.
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