Some companies are obviously great investments -- in
hindsight. Yet for every stock out there screaming "
buy me," others simply give us a nudge and a nod. How can
we tell tomorrow's obviously great investments from the
thousands of pretenders?
The stars' walk of fame
On
Motley Fool CAPS, these opportunities can be found among
our four-star stocks. In CAPS'
proprietary ratings system, they rank higher than most
of the other 5,300 starred companies, but they're
just shy of superstardom. While all the attention might be
focused on their five-star peers, we can sift
through CAPS to find four-star firms approaching
greatness. Here are a handful of four-star firms
approaching greatness.
Energy Conversion Devices (Nasdaq:
ENER)
RF Micro Devices (Nasdaq: RFMD)
Patriot Coal (NYSE: PCX)
Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM)
ExxonMobil
Some of these names might surprise you, since you've
probably put a tiger in your tank at an
Exxonstation at one time or another, maybe even as far
back as when it was called Esso.
Almostgreat? Even familiar names can still offer
some of the best opportunities. Perhaps we've just forgotten
the potential they still hold. However, the 140,000-plus CAPS
members chose these companies as
less obvious sources for tomorrow's great buys, so let's
see why they might merit your attention.
In the sight of greatness?
As
rumors of a possible takeoversubside,
Energy
Conversion Devices' shares have sagged as well. The
disruptions to the global economic, financial, and credit
markets continue to pressure solar investments, while
flagging government support through subsidies means that
future system sales could be in jeopardy.
A recent Associated Press story noted that it's never been
cheaper than now to buy a solar power system. Between
federal, state, and utility subsidies, the cost of purchasing
a system can be cut by as much as 90% in some areas. Foreign
governments have subsidized the cost of solar power as well,
but they've also started reducing or eliminating their
payments, and that's causing consternation in the
industry.
A solar sunset
Germany has proven to be the world's largest market for
solar power, no doubt largely because of the subsidy program
in place there, which guarantees renewable energy generators
fixed payments for the power they produce. However, critics
contend that the program simply drove up the cost for
electricity, and Germany is now set to cut the subsidy
program considerably. Spain is another country that heavily
relied upon subsidies to get solar moving, only to eventually
derail the gravy train. And Ontario, Canada, introduced new
subsidies that use protectionist trade language and feature
land-use regulations that will hamper some solar companies
from developing many new projects there.
First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR), for example, says
that if Ontario doesn't significantly modify its domestic
content rules, its ability to participate in the
feed-in-tariff program for future projects could possibly be
completely eliminated. Energy Conversion Devices doesn't have
much of a presence, if any, north of the border, but nearly
one-fifth of its revenues came from Germany last year,
meaning subsidy cuts there could result in reduced demand.
How the U.S. handles its handouts could also cause an
impact.
Suntech Power , Energy Conversion Devices,
and First Solar are among the companies whose investors have
found that without the helping hand of government, they
simply can't compete with other forms of energy. With solar
also facing a supply glut of polysilicon, wafers, and PV
panels, it may just take industry consolidation to sort out
the problems.
That's an outcome that looks to be picking up steam.
LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK),
ReneSola (NYSE: SOL), and
MEMC Electronic Materials have all picked up
small, privately held companies to help them
become more vertically integrated. Continued... |