Our goal in
Motley Fool Hidden Gems
is to find the best small companies to own for the next
three to 35 years. It's a wonderful aim, since historical
data illustrates that small-cap stocks -- particularly of the
valuevariety -- have substantially outperformed the
overall market over the past 40 years.
To optimize our returns, we look to sell our mistakes
quickly, hold sound companies for an average of three years,
and then, yes, maintain our stakes in the very best of the
lot for a quarter of a century or more. The best time to sell
shares of a truly superior small company is
almost never.
For example, selling
Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) or
Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM) in the
early days after doubling your money would have wound up
costing you
dearly. Best Buy is up over 10,000% since its first
double; Research In Motion more than 1,500%.
It's been six years, and the
Hidden Gemscumulative returns thus far have easily
outpaced the market. There's no question that we'll have down
periods. But over time we expect to continue to outperform
the general market by buying and holding onto the next wave
of great American companies.
How do we find them?
One way to find the future greats is to carefully study
the major winners from the past. Relatively few multi-decade
superstars are technology companies. And while we don't avoid
tech stocks in
Hidden Gems, they're a minority of our selections.
Instead, we favor sleepy and underfollowed
companies with high-quality management. For the
ultimate example, think
Wal-Mart .
In November 1980, Wal-Mart was trading at a split- and
dividend-adjusted $0.16 per share. That's
right, $0.16. But let's be clear: The stock was
selling at $50 per share then, so it wasn't
evera penny stock. We think it's nearly impossible
to become a penny stock millionaire -- despite the
mischievous headline we placed on this article. No, the
greatest stocks are those of real companies with real
earnings. Because of stock splits, some investors think
you'll find the next Wal-Mart while searching among 16-cent
stocks. You won't.
So what has Wal-Mart done since 1980 (a full decade
afterit went public)?
With the stock trading around $50 as of this writing, it
has returned 300 times in value over the past 29 years. A
$5,000 investment back then is worth some $1.5 million today.
That'll clean up a lot of investment mistakes!
But what if we go all the way back to Wal-Mart's IPO, when
it became a public company in October 1970? Then, the
business was valued at a tiny $21.5 million. The company has
grown at almost 30% growth per year since, and it would have
turned a $5,000 investment into nearly $40 million today.
When the company went public, it raised $4.5 million in
cash to pay down debts. Wal-Mart was
invisibleback then. No one knew about it. Hardly
anyone followed it, and more attention was paid to
established companies such as
Ford (NYSE: F) and Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) --
"safe bets" that have posted disappointing multi-decade
returns. And that plays right into
Hidden Gems' sweet spot.
Reverse-engineering a superstar
Now it's time to list the qualities of what has been
one of the greatest 25-year investments in the history of our
species. Here are the traits of Wal-Mart in its early days,
traits that we look for in
Hidden Gems:
Boeing (NYSE: BA).
What's more, its dividend started in the teeth of a
bear market in the early 1970s. That said a lot about the
strength of its financials.
Wall Street treated the company like it was a bunch of
Arkansas hillbillies. For years, no analysts followed
it.
For years and years, institutional ownership was well
below 50%. As we said, hardly anyone cared.
Sam Walton owned the majority of the stock. Here was a
founder with a stake in the organization's enduring
success.
Its concept was new and innovative, yet
proven. Wal-Mart had been in business for eight
years before going public, with more than 30 stores and
more than $32 million in sales on the day of its IPO.
It had a compelling valuation, trading at just 0.67
times sales when it came public.
Find the next one
We're not trying to reinvent the wheel here at
Hidden Gems, because we simply don't need to.
There's something on the order of 100 years of researchable
history of the U.S. stock markets, and tons of data available
over the past 25 years. The Internet makes much of the
research relatively quick and easy. Continued... |