"If someone starts talking to you about beta, zip up your
pocketbook."
-- Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway's 2001 annual
meeting
The Oracle of Omaha thinks it's dangerous to use beta as a
way to measure risk, and implicit in that quote, he thinks
you may lose you money if you do. Is he right?
Beta is just a simple way to quantify a stock's
volatility. Anything over 1.0 means a stock has historically
exhibited higher highs and lower lows than the overall
market. Conversely, a beta of less than 1.0 means a stock is
less volatile than the market, while any stock around 1.0
tends to move as the market moves.
A quick screening for high-beta stocks brings up companies
such as
Baidu.com (Nasdaq: BIDU) (a beta of 2.0),
First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR) (1.6), and
Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (3.2). Mid-range
companies include
Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO) (1.2),
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) (1.5), and
MEMC Electronic Materials (NYSE: WFR) (1.2).
Low-beta stocks are those such as
Altria (NYSE: MO) (0.5).
Is Buffett nuts?
Looking at these companies you may be wondering just
what Buffett is thinking. Of course Baidu.com, a Chinese
Internet search firm, is riskier than multinational
mega-conglomerate
General Electric !
But here's his point: The more information and knowledge
you have about a business -- the quality of management,
competitive threats, efficiency of the business model,
competitive advantages, etc. -- the less
realrisk you're taking on if you decide to buy
it.
Beta, after all, has no knowledge of a company's
fundamentals. It doesn't know how well the business is
performing, and doesn't help you at all in uncovering truly
important things like improving economies of scale, high
switching costs, network effects, and other competitive
advantages.
Beta is useful in letting you know what kind of ride you
may be in for with a stock (price risk), but the real
riskto investors is permanent loss of capital -- and
the best way to combat this fundamental risk is to have
intimate knowledge of every company you own. Put another way,
the more of a long-term investor you are, the less useful
beta becomes as a risk measure, and the more you should avoid
worrying about it. If you're only investing money that's not
needed for several years (always a good idea), you're far
less likely to be selling when your stocks have taken their
inevitable dips.
David and Tom Gardner, co-advisors of
Motley Fool Stock Advisor
, agree with Buffett 100%. In particular, they employ
this principle in their monthly Best Buys Now list -- the
five stocks from their current recommendations they believe
offer the best bargains for new money. It combines some
powerful factors. First, a great bunch of stocks to choose
from, with the average pick up 50% vs. 1% for the S&P
500. Second, an intimate knowledge of those stocks as a
result of following them for months or years. Third, they
actually put volatility to good use when one of their
favorite companies takes a price hit, giving them an
attractive entry point. Continued... |