When word hit a few weeks ago that
Disney would acquire
Marvel at a 30% premium, most Marvel
shareholders rejoiced. Many of us here at Fool HQ did not,
however, because it meant that one of the world's greatest
stocks -- one that had been largely undervalued the past
seven full years -- would no longer be publicly traded.
In fact, the marvelous Marvel motored to 1,300% gains
since David Gardner's original recommendation in
Motley Fool Stock Advisor
in 2002 -- the seventh-best-performing non-penny stock in
the U.S. stock market. That's all the more incredible when
you consider the market returned just 2% during that time
period.
Today is a great time to reflect back on Marvel's run, and
identify three ways David and the team were able to achieve
that 14-bagger.
1. Stay invested
If there's only one thing you remember from these
lessons, let it be this: 1,300% vs. 2% only happens only if
you're willing to stay invested through the inevitable ups
and downs of the market. As David told his
Stock Advisormembers, "Buying and holding great
companies can earn you tremendous returns. Don't let small-f
fools scare you out of patient ownership of great
companies."
You will find naysayers
every day of the yearwarning you to sell -- either
to "lock in gains" because the market's overvalued, or to get
out before further damage in a bear market. But if you've
found an excellent company that continues to execute to your
expectations, the best time to sell is
almost never. Monster returns from the likes of
Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) and
Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) did not come to those
who locked in gains after the first 50% to 100% spike. Those
two companies have gained roughly 3,000% and 10,000%,
respectively, since their early days!
There's one other important advantage that comes from
long-term buy-and-hold: Our seven-year run with Marvel gave
us a long-standing perspective and large community following
of the stock. This is a
hugeasset. Continually following a company every day
for seven years, along with the tremendous insights we gain
from our
Stock Advisormembers on the discussion boards, gave
us insights that are hard to match from short-term-oriented
traders. We're seeing this more and more from some of our
other long-held companies as well.
2. Valuation is important, but it's not
everything
This may seem controversial, but it's really not when
you think about it. It's counterproductive to quibble over a
couple of dollars in the share price of a great company --
dollars that turn into mere pennies in cost basis after
multiple splits.
Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO), for example, closed at
$24.25 its first day of trading in March 1990. Today, and a
2,900%Â gain later, that's a split-adjusted cost
basis of a mere $0.08. Someone paying $30 back then would
have a cost basis of just $0.10.
By definition, any company that beats the market by 1,300%
over seven years was tremendously undervalued -- despite
seeming overvalued using traditional measures. Likewise,
"valuation concerns" kept plenty of investors out of
Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) and
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) in 2004. You have to be
flexible, and recognize when traditional valuation measures
are useless.
This is a nice segue to a related principle: Add to good
companies over time. David actually recommended Marvel
four timesover the seven years, with gains of
1,357%, 806%, 262%, and 70% for the four positions. The
original 14-bagger was a life-changing gain; those who added
to their positions along the way simply compounded the fun
and profit.
3. The more obscure or unloved the company, the
better
Back in 2002, Marvel was completely off Wall Street's
radar, with not a single analyst covering the stock. The $170
million company was funneling most of its profits to paying
off post-bankruptcy debt. Its small size made the company
obscure, and it was unloved by most who did know about
it.
But David noted a stable of 4,700 licensed superheroes,
accompanying a rapidly improving business -- and most
importantly, all this strength remained largely hidden,
because of the stock's obscurity. Continued... |