Veteran
Global Gainsmembers know what we love about China.
There's
tremendouspotential upside there, with
many cheap stocksready to explode in value -- especially
among smaller companies.
We can never emphasize enough, however, the dangers that
lurk in the world's most populous country -- the nasty traits
of some Chinese businesses that make us fear and loathe
them.
An emerging giant
There are nearly 2,000 public companies in China. About
450 are listed in the U.S., with that number growing all the
time. And many of them are future multibaggers that will make
their shareholders rich. Look around and you'll find
businesses such as
A-Power Energy Generation Systems (Nasdaq:
APWR) and
Baidu.com (Nasdaq: BIDU), which have more
than doubled in just the past six months.
But we can't pretend these types of winners are easy to
find. If you don't know the lay of the land -- the ins and
outs of Chinese political structure -- you could quite
literally lose a fortune.
Here are just three of the problems to be on the lookout
for:
1. Hard-to-decipher financials.
The Economistmagazine sums it up better than I can:
"The financial results of companies that global investors
wish to buy into can be as unintelligible as the dialect
spoken in the company town. It is said (with apparent
sincerity) that some Chinese firms keep several sets of books
— one for the government, one for company
records, one for foreigners and one to report what is
actually going on."
In fairness, this was written a couple of years ago and
Chinese financials are a bit easier to understand now. And
there's no doubt that American companies
alsodo not make available the books we'd really like
to see. And the ones we
cansee aren't necessarily easy to decipher --
especially financials like
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and
Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC).
But there's little question that we simply can't get the
same lucidity and transparency from Chinese companies that we
do from domestic firms.
2. Questionable quality of earnings. Quality
of earnings refers to the extent to which financial reporting
can be trusted. The more conservative management is with its
assumptions, the better we feel about the numbers it reports.
A 2008
Barron'sarticle relayed a pretty sobering study from
RateFinancials, an independent firm that rates financial
reports. Looking at the five largest recent Chinese IPOs --
including
LDK Solar and
Yingli Green Energy -- RateFinancials found
problems with "big increases in receivables, negative
operating and free-cash flows, significant amounts of
deferred revenues, major prepayments, and sizable long-term
commitments to suppliers."
3. Poor corporate governance. China is
"perceived to routinely engage in bribery when doing business
abroad," according to Transparency International. In TI's
2008 corruption report, the country falls well below any
comfortable level, ranking 72nd. That doesn't mean every
Chinese company is dicey, of course, but investors must be on
guard. So while investors can check Yahoo! Finance and see
that U.S.-based
Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN), for example, has a
much-higher-than-average corporate governance rating in the
retail sector, such easy tools don't exist for Chinese
companies.
To sum it up, our
Global Gainsteam warns that "Shareholders of Chinese
companies should know that there is no real apparatus by
which their interests are protected and that they are
essentially betting on being on the same side as management
and the majority shareholders -- who as often as not are
branches of the government, the military, and/or the
Communist Party."
And yet ...
Still, China's vast potential cannot be
ignored, and investing indirectly through multinationals like
Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX) and
Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) won't cut it.
China is a small part of these companies' businesses; to
realize the greatest potential from China's growth, you'll
need to look to the domestic companies.
We recommend some China exposure as a part of any balanced
portfolio. That's why we travel to the country yearly, and
are just back from meeting with several companies and some
prominent investors. These meetings -- the ability to sit at
the same table as management and see the business operations
with our own eyes -- allow us to separate the good from the
bad, and the quality from the corrupt. (You can see all of
our notes and stock recommendations with a
free trial.)
Uncovering a double
In 2008,
China Fire & Security Group seemed to
have it all. Revenue had doubled in two years, the country's
market for fire safety products was huge, and several
high-profile industrial accidents had pressured the
government to crack down on safety violators. To top it off,
the government enlisted China Fire itself to help write
safety legislation. Talk about the fox guarding the
henhouse! Continued... |