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Monday, January 07, 2008
Paul Weyrich :: Townhall.com Columnist
Possibly Surging Democratic Presidential Candidates
by Paul Weyrich
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What was the biggest suprise of Election Day?



After the Iowa caucuses on January 3, the pundits are busy trying to determine the lessons learned from the opening contest of the 2008 Presidential election. It is clear that the voters in both the Republican and Democratic Parties want change. But the voters who turned out in record numbers are very different for each party. The Democrats whom Senator Barak Obama (D-IL) attracted in record numbers were mainly young people. The Republicans to whom former Governor of Arkansas Mike Huckabee appealed in record numbers were mainly older Evangelical Christians. While both parties managed to attract new voters, Republicans should be concerned because the ratio was two-to-one between the parties in favor of the Democrats. Historically, whichever party has the greater voter turnout in Iowa in January is the party most likely to win in November in the general election.

Yes, both parties want change, but the kind of change they seek is radically different. Democrats want a move towards socialism, whereas Republicans want a move toward the sort of politics which Christian Democrats have in Europe. The two are very dissimilar.

As third-place Democratic winner Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) exclaimed while returns came in on Thursday, “This is a great night for Democrats.” Indeed it was. Unless the situation changes radically between now and November Democrats are almost certain to win a landslide election come November. While Huckabee is a charismatic candidate he is not a conservative. Should he be the nominee he would radically change the nature of the Republican Party. He raises taxes instead of cutting them. Whereas President George W. Bush managed to forge a political party of CEOs and grassroots conservatives, Huckabee wants to forge a middle-class party of Christian activists and people who resemble the unemployed, not employers. It would be a very different party, stressing middle-class folks instead of business executives.

Voters in New Hampshire are very different from voters in Iowa. New Hampshire voters are far more secular. 60% of Iowa caucus voters were active Christians, whereas only 19% of New Hampshire voters are active Christians. Yet it is still clear that the incumbent party is in big trouble. It is unclear at this point if former Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney can win the GOP nomination, but even if he or Senator John S. McCain III (R-AZ) were to secure the Republican nomination, the lesson from Iowa is that the Republicans are in for a loss in November.

So voters move on from Iowa, a rather unrepresentative State of the Union. It has too few minorities to be indicative of the entire nation. Handicapped voters have a great problem voting in the caucuses. If they cannot arrive to vote in the specified time they are not allowed to vote. Now, following New Hampshire, states such as Nevada (January 19), South Carolina (January 26) and Florida (January 29) will hold their primaries before the big vote of many states on February 5.

Romney said it is a 50-inning ballgame. We probably will not need to wait for all 50 states to vote to know the nominees but the next round of primaries and caucuses will be a chance for both Romney and Clinton to recover. Clinton’s third-place showing in Iowa has been suppressed by the so-called mainstream media. They have highlighted the Obama vote without mentioning Clinton. One thing is clear. The invincibility of Hillary Clinton has imploded. Given the showing of former Senator John Edwards (D-NC), who came in second, it is clear that Clinton has been repudiated 70-30. Back in 1968 there was a New Nixon. Will there be a new Hillary Clinton?

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About The Author

Paul M. Weyrich is the late Chairman and CEO of the Free Congress Research and Education Foundation.
 
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(30 comments so Far)
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Reply # 1
Date: Jan 8, 2008 - 2:47 PM EST
I hope for a Democratic sweep
Not because they are better than the GOP. Both are bad for the nation but, I believe the GOP can be reformed easier to founding princples.

With a Democratic sweep, a veto proof majority in Congress, they will be in complete power when the collapse the Gov. accounting office is warning about comes.

When the Democrats are fully in control in a few years when we can't meet the promises we made, our infrastructure continues to fall, jobs and business continue to leave and tax revenues are falling the more they raise taxes, then the voters will either demand a "reformed" GOP take over again or even better, a new party rises to lead this nation back to founding principles and a Republic where the people in each state are once again in control of their governments.

While some call for a recession this year, more disturbing is the "depression" some a calling for after 2010 and how whoever, GOP or Democrat are in office, will be blamed for something they really can't avoid. The problem is set in stone due to decades of bad policy that is in the hands of financial institutions around the world more than in the hands of any government.

Debt, not federal, but consumer, corporate, city and state, debt, is what will cause the depression. Each year, more and more paycheck and tax revenues are going for interest payments. There is nothing the Federal government can do about that because it is "our choice," and the choice of "our" cities and states to bury themselves in debt that will lead to the collapse. No President or Congress can avoid that.
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Reply # 2
Date: Jan 8, 2008 - 1:30 PM EST
Singers
Perhaps the common sense in it all is that any thoughtful person knows that we cannot pay the bills we have, and increasing the defense budget at the same time that the boomers are retiring and driving up the costs of entitlements, or increasing health care costs - cannot also be paid for. Without, of course, increasing the deficits even further - or increasing taxes. Everyone is preaching to their particular choir. The Democrats are selling the spiked wine of more social spending, and the Republicans are selling a similar wine based on defense spending. The choirs, apparently, like the sound of these voices. In fact, they like them so much that in the last 30 years we've gone $9.7 trillion into debt, and now pay $250 billion a year just to pay the interest on that debt. The tax base is being eroded at the same time the singers want to increase spending.

Irresponsible on all parts. We should have a law - if you want to propose any program or any expansion of any program - first explain where the money comes from. The silence would be a welcome relief.
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