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Monday, September 24, 2007
Paul Weyrich :: Townhall.com Columnist
2008 Senatorial Prospects
by Paul Weyrich
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In this Congress Senate Minority Leader A. Mitchell (Mitch) McConnell, Jr. (R-KY) has real power. He has 49 Republican Senators to the Democratic Majority's 51. However, in the Senate it takes 60 votes to accomplish almost anything. The Majority often falls short of 60; thus Mitch McConnell prevails. The Majority gets angrier as it fails to achieve its objectives.

But McConnell has to worry about the next Congress. There is a real possibility that he may not have more than 41 Senators, a few of those possibly flakes. He may not be able to prevent the Majority from securing 60 votes and if he cannot prevent that his power would almost evaporate.

The landscape is as follows: all indications are that the Democrats will have a winning candidate for the Presidency and it could be that the Democratic candidate for President would win decisively. In that scenario Republican candidates for the Senate would need to overcome a Democratic candidate for the Presidency.

First, the Republicans are defending 23 seats in the Senate, the Democrats only 12.

We begin with retirees. Senator Wayne Allard won twice in Colorado but his retirement gives a real edge to Congressman Mark Udall. Colorado was reliably Republican, but not any more. Democrats already hold one Senate seat and a majority of House of Representative seats. A Udall victory is very likely.

Senator John W. Warner of Virginia, who will be 81 in March, also is retiring. Former Governor Mark Warner (no relation to Senator Warner) is running unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Republicans most likely will have a nominating contest between Congressman Thomas F. Davis, III and former Governor James S. Gilmore, III. Warner will have the advantage. He is well liked and Virginia again is trending Democratic. Virginia already has one Democratic Senator. As with Colorado, the last Presidential race was close. Mark Warner will be difficult to defeat.

Next there is Nebraska. Two-term Senator Chuck Hagel is retiring. Nebraska is a Republican State with a propensity to elect two Democratic Senators. Nebraska already has one. Here it basically depends upon who runs. If former Senator Robert (Bob) Kerrey were the Democratic nominee he would be formidable. On the other hand if former Republican Governor Michael O. Johanns were to run he might be able to win.

Then look at Senator Lindsey Graham's numbers in South Carolina. He supported President George W. Bush's immigration bill. Many voters have not forgiven him. He may face a primary. Continued...
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Paul M. Weyrich is the late Chairman and CEO of the Free Congress Research and Education Foundation.
 
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Reply # 1
Date: Sep 24, 2007 - 1:55 PM EST
Eben
You are absolutely correct on every point, but does that mean we should give up and let the elites continue their theft and not try to reclaim our inheritance? By the same token, if we are so far gone, why not vote for me and let's see what we can do?

Another excellent alternative is to check out UNITY08.COM, which is a grassroots effort by other Americans fed up with the partisanship that has developed because of the virtual lock on power of the two parties. Our citizens have been bought off by entitlements and pork barrel spending, and no Republican President will be able to stand against his own party to resist this. Only an independent President, not tied to the party machine, or any PAC or corrupt lobbyist can offer that resistance.

In my Campaign Platform I pledge to veto any legislation that is in opposition to the Constitution. On my website I show how I plan to engage the American people in determining the future of the nation, and I believe my ideas are sound.

Check out the site and email me a response that proves me wrong. I think you will see that hope is not lost and we can reclaim our birthright. I believe that with all of my being, otherwise I would not be trying to get elected. We simply cannot afford another elite, DEM or GOP, to hold the Presidency by once again voting for the lesser of two evils. Expecting a different result from doing the same thing is insanity (Einstein)! Are we insane, or is America the greatest nation ever dedicated to freedom for all? Never give up, the only solution is victory over the forces of internationalism that are seeking to destroy America, and our Constitution is the thing that stands in their way. I will not give in to them without a fight!! And do check out the UNITY08 site, it is really an opportunity to be involved and have a say. Thanks, Joe
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Reply # 2
Date: Sep 24, 2007 - 1:30 PM EST
Senate
For the Republicans, I would expect to lose the Sununu seat in New Hampshire, the Warner seat in Virginia, the Allard seat in Colorado with decent Democratic chances with the Smith seat in Oregon and the Coleman seat in Minnesota. Republicans have some chance of winning the Landrieu seat in Louisiana and the Johnson seat in South Dakota with an outside chance of winning the Baucus seat in Montana. I'd guess the Republicans will lose three or four seats, giving the Democrats a 55-45 advantage in 2009-2010.
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