During President William J. Clinton's first term in office, there were rumors that Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS) would be his Republican challenger. He was and I was sure Dole would run an incompetent campaign. Clinton was vulnerable and could be defeated but Dole was not the man to do so. He proved this true.

In 1999 I was wrong. I thought that perhaps the Republicans would nominate someone other than Texas Governor George W. Bush. It seemed that Bush would be unable to defeat the Democratic nominee, then-Vice President Albert A. Gore, Jr. I believed Gore would win. Gore did win a greater share of the popular vote but Bush won the Electoral College and therefore the presidency.

In 2003 it was clear Bush would win re-election regardless of who the Democrats nominated. It was only as the election neared that I worried Bush might lose.

This brings us to 2007. I believe that the Democrats, most likely with Senator Hillary R. Clinton (D-NY) as the nominee, will win. The Republicans, regardless of who they nominate, will lose because of the war in Iraq. Voters want to punish the Republicans for Iraq.

I also believe the Republicans will lose seats in the Senate. Their incumbent candidates are weak and they have few, if any, potential challengers to Democrats who may be successful.

The House of Representatives is different. If the Democrats do not fulfill the promises they made to their base and the country, the Republicans could win the 16 seats needed for a majority. This will be difficult but it is not impossible.

There you have it. If I am wrong, I will change my phone number. If I am correct you can expect to hear about it again.