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Wednesday, July 19, 2006
Paul  Weyrich :: Townhall.com Columnist
McCain, Giuliani or Who? GOP 2008 Uncertainty
by Paul Weyrich
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Will the Dems' health care Christmas Present to America be an improvement or detriment to our health care system?


Arizona Senator John S. McCain, III is everywhere. He virtually lives at NBC. If not there how about CNN. And talk shows. And late night shows. Oh, how the media loves him. A maverick who came close in 2000, he is looking to make one more run at the Presidency. And at the same moment, former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani says he is thinking very seriously about running for President. Rudy, too, is loved by the media. How many times have you heard "America's Mayor" in introducing him. He is available to any network at the drop of a hat. My fondest hope is that they both run because they will be going after the same voters. Those voters within the GOP are driven by one issue alone and that is Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY). Fear of Clinton's election to the Presidency is palpable.

To cast aside issues of great importance from immigration to right to life to guns to marriage and many more merely for a theoretical match-up in the media is stupid to say the least. Polls I have seen show McCain edging Hillary by only a point or two. The same for Rudy. We don't know for certain that Clinton will run in 2008.

If she were to run she may or may not have a primary opponent. Just last Friday morning there was a story in a Washington, D.C. newspaper which suggested that if Senator Joseph I. Lieberman were to lose the Connecticut Democratic primary Hillary would be much more likely to face a challenger from the Left because of her support of the war and the defense build-up.

If both McCain and Giuliani run they would do so in the Republican primaries as well as caucus states, in which a state party convention rather than Republican voters at large elects delegates to the national convention.

This is the first time in many years that neither party has a presumed nominee, although with the Democrats Hillary is well ahead at the moment. Think about it. Ronald W. Reagan became the presumed nominee after his close but failed attempt in 1976. So Reagan won in 1980 and again in 1984. Then Reagan's hand-picked Vice President, George Herbert Walker Bush, won a convincing victory in 1988. He sought reelection in 1992 and went down miserably. Senator Robert J. Dole was the 1996 nominee because it was "his turn," not because anyone thought he could win. Meanwhile George W. Bush had been elected and re-elected as Governor of Texas, and he ran for President in 2000 and won one of the closest contests in our history. He ran for re-election in 2004 and polled more votes by far than any Presidential candidate yet his victory was one of the narrowest in history as well, although he won by an outright majority. Now comes 2008. There is no presumed nominee. Had Florida's retiring Governor Jeb Bush agreed to run he would likely start out as the favorite. But Governor Bush has said no, no way. That is where McCain and Rudy step in. There are Republican voters for whom defeating Hillary is their only motivation. So which of these two popular candidates to choose? Would it be McCain? No Senator has won the Presidency since JFK in 1960.

Moreover, long-time Senators have cast hundreds of votes, any of which can be used in an attack ad. On the other hand Rudy, married three times but raised as a Catholic, favors abortion rights, special rights for homosexuals, gun control and more. Yes, he was an effective Mayor. But has a mayor ever tried to become President? Has any succeeded? If both of these potential candidates were on the primary ballots in most states the pragmatic voters, those driven solely by Hillary fear, would cancel out each other.

That would be helpful to the principled voters who want to elect someone who believes in their issues. A number of potential candidates will be running on a conservative, pro-life, pro-family platform. While pragmatists were splitting their vote conservatives would have the opportunity to do the same thing.

That is, unless conservatives and pro-family people unite behind a single candidate. That candidate needs to take the conservative positions on taxes, guns, life and marriage and should oppose neo-Wilsonianism in foreign policy.

If conservatives do as they did in 1988 the more liberal candidate would win. That candidate happened to be Bush '41, who was viewed by non-activist voters as being a third Reagan term. Bush was not really a liberal but he was not a conservative either. That is why he lost. The one thing voters knew about him was "read my lips. No new taxes." Then when he sought the largest tax increase in American history voters felt betrayed. If conservatives had had a single candidate in 1988 Bush could have taken second place in the Republican primaries. It wasn't until late in the game that Bush had a majority in primaries. He had pluralities, yes, but no outright majority until South Dakota.

Conservatives who are convinced that Republicans will be soundly defeated in House and Senate races this fall are nevertheless still focused on these mid-term elections. Once we are past those elections in November, suddenly conservatives will have to confront 2008. One thing is for certain. There is no Ronald Reagan who will be in that contest. No one remotely resembles him. So conservatives will be faced with either splitting up into every camp, or getting together and shining the spotlight on the candidate who most resembles what they are seeking. Senator George Allen is a possibility. The Virginia Republican is in a tough re-election of his own. There is an outside chance he would be one of those Senators defeated. Senator Sam Brownback looks attractive but is little known outside of Kansas. Senator Rick Santorum has been trailing Democrat Bob Casey, Jr. for months in the Pennsylvania polls. Should he come back and win it would be almost an upset. Others Senators, such as Charles Hagel (R-NE), also would like to run, although his views are identical on many issues to those of McCain.

Many Governors are looking at the race. Governors have been elected far more often than have Senators in recent times. Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts is touring the country, seeking support. Others Governors also are said to be interested. One that I find interesting is Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas. He is a former Baptist minister, who certainly still knows how to preach. I have heard him give spellbinding speeches to political groups. Certainly the religious right would like him, he is their kind of guy. His record on taxes is not good. But it seems he now has seen the light on that issue. If we are not to make the perfect the enemy of the good then Huckabee looks attractive. He is sound on most issues. He is likeable, like Reagan. He comes from Hope, Arkansas, from whence Clinton comes. No one was more outspoken against Clinton despite Clinton's continued popularity in Arkansas than was Huckabee.

The problem is Huckabee very well may not run. If he did, he would start from far behind. On the other hand, if he had a whole movement behind him he might be able to catch up quickly. Conservatives either can elect a winner in 2008 or be driven to the margins should McCain or Rudy get elected. It is our choice. The question is, will we make it?

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About The Author

Paul M. Weyrich is the late Chairman and CEO of the Free Congress Research and Education Foundation.
 
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Think Newt
Clearly one should consider Newt Gingrich as an excellent candidate. He is pro-life, which is a must. He has taken the time and effort to think out positions on most of the important issues of the day and is articulate in expressing them. He has a hopeful view of America (a major Reagen characteristic). He is a conservative in more than name only. He is definitely worth serious consideration as a winning candidate.

Not McCain nor Giuliani
If I have to read another supposedly conservative article on McCain as frontrunner I'm going to throw up. McCain is a RINO, plus an asshole and very unlikeable. He can't win, especially after the McCain-Feingold first amendement debacle and the McCain-Kennedy amnesty debacle ("It's not amnesty!!!"). Giulliani is a great guy and very likeable but too liberal for most conservatives on abortion, gun control, etc. And who knows where he stands on the biggest issue in 2008 that will blow every other issue out of the water: illegal immigration.

I like George Allen. Has any other GOP hopeful (besides Tancredo) stated publicly that children of illegals should not be given automatic citizenship? He's right on immigration, plus an accross the board Reagan conservative with "Jeffersonian" principles. Rush Limbaugh and I like what we hear:

http://www.ontheissues.org/Senate/George_Allen.htm#Immigration
http://www.georgeallen.com/site/c.hgITL5PKJtH/b.1434575/k.BEAC/Home.htm

Please support Allen's Senate race so we can at least get him in the race for the White House.

How about Allen/Rice? With Condi as vice president playing a very strong foreign policy role similar to the way that Cheney has been rock solid for Bush on Bush's best performance issue by a mile: the ware on terror. Bush has abandoned conservatives on a whole host of issues, and I get the feeling Allen wouldn't.





Huckabee is running
Gov. Mike Huckabee is running. Learn more about him at http://www.mikehuckabeepresident2008.blogspot.com

BSR

neither McCain nor Guiliani
How could any of you support Guiliani?? The man supports abortion. I don't care what anybody says, but I will simply not vote for any candidate who supports abortion. There is no room for negotiation on that topic.

As for McCain, he lost my vote when he started supporting amnesty fo illegal aliens.

My family was an immigrant to this country, and we came the legal way. We waited years so that we could do everything the right and legal way. How can I support a politician who basically says it is okay for someone to cut ahead of everyone else and get here illegally??

The answer is: neither McCain nor Guiliani. Maybe George Allen or Rick Santorum

none of the above works for me
Running one of those two losers i.e.McCain or Giuliani would almost assure my vote for Hillary. I would rather see a liberal in than one more wanna be Rhino that looks up to FDR.God I miss The Gipper.

Republican presidental candidate
I just hope Kerick has moved from New York State. That way, he can run as Gulliani's VP.

Barry

*ugh* McCain
McCain is nothing but a sore loser from Election 2000. As well, he is nothing more than a liberal in disguise. Rudy...I like the guy, but I still don't know if I would vote for him... I want a staunch republician running, a guy who won't take this liberal garbage about 'a path to legal citizenship'. I want my guy to say "This is stupid. It's plain and simple...they're illegal. Get them out. They can't vote b/c they have no right to vote, ergo, I don't need they're vote. While we're at it; if they're illegal and they have children here the illegal status is passed on to the child as well... Sorry, should've done it right the first time." Where is that guy at? He's got my vote.

Mitt Romney a Conservative?
Anybody that gets elected in the same state as Ted Kennedy and John Kerry cannot be a true conservative! No way this guy gets thru the primaries!

Hold your nose and close your eyes???
I get the feeling the conservative wing isn't about to hold our nose and vote for Sen. McCain nor Mayor Giuliani.These two gentlemen may be competing for the same vote but then again so is Sen.Allen and Gov.Romney and the support for them is thin.Conservatives are so frustrated with Congress and "W"'s "Big Government Conservatism" they are willing to let Hillary win so we can be the opposition party again.No there isn't much out there to pump up the right.
I would personally like to see Sen.Mitch McConnell of Kentucky make a run for it.He then could "PICK" for V.P.Rick Santorum.

GOP
I am not going to vote Demo, nor Libertarian, nor Green, nor Communist. I don't like any of the possible candidates mentioned in the article, either. I would vote for McCain or Guilani only if it took that to defeat Hilary, and I would do that only after working against either/both of them for nomination.

Animalgirl:
Racist underbelly? Are you kidding me?

Those days are gone.

From a middle-aged, white, Protestant, smoking, gun-owning, SUV-driving, heterosexual, male, college-educated, employed conservative.

A member of a true underclass, one of the few not provided federal recognition and protection.

And not a racist bone in my body (other than hating Viet Cong and Islamo-fascists).

I may not vote for Condi because on the rare occassions she does speak her mind and delve into politics, she sounds like just another Rockefeller Republican. And I ain't gonna vote fer her jist bicuz she sez she's a ripiblikan. (OOOOooops! My racist underbelly just slipped through!... Omigod!)

Misterpolitics: re Giuliani
May I not so humbly suggest you read my essay on the issue on my blog:

viewfromtheisland.townhall.com

The essay is entitled: "Rudy?... For President?"

Then you'll see why he shouldn't be elected, in his own words.

A McCain -Clinton Ticket?
Perhaps in 2008, McCain and Clinton can be the nominees on the Carpet Bagger Party Ticket to replace Castro? Seriously, if McCain is the Republican Party nominee, I will chose a third party candidate. I will never vote for him anymore than I would vote for one of the Clintons. It would be nice to see a principled conservative who believes in the constitution and a constitutional republic.

What's the problem with Giuliani?
Abortion = bad
guns = bad
gay rights = don't care (do we really want the fed defining marriage?)

Taxes = great
Spending = good
Iraq = great
McCain/Feingold = good
Soc Security = great
National Security = great
Sacrificing small businesses for the environment = good

I'll admit, that I do have a real disagreement with the mayor on abortion and guns, but I would be happy to vote for W again and I disagree with him on some issues as well.

Keep in mind that Reagan raised taxes as Gov, and gave blanket amnesty to illegals but I would love to vote for him.

What's the problem with Giuliani?
Abortion = bad
guns = bad
gay rights = don't care (do we really want the fed defining marriage?)

Taxes = great
Spending = good
Iraq = great
McCain/Feingold = good
Soc Security = great
National Security = great
Sacrificing small businesses for the environment = good

I'll admit, that I do have a real disagreement with the mayor on abortion and guns, but I would be happy to vote for W again and I disagree with him on some issues as well.

Keep in mind that Reagan raised taxes as Gov, and gave blanket amnesty to illegals but I would love to vote for him.

McInsane and Guiliani
As Reaganite states (above), conservatives are more concerned about our country than the economy.

Voting other peoples wallets (socialism) and the gimme-gimme mindset has brought us to our moral decadence today.

I will not vote for a RINO or a liberal like Guiliani. I will not vote in that race and to hell with the GOP. The Rockyfella wing has got to go for once and all.

Catchy Name
Why just mention Mitt in passing? He is a complete candidate, not a one trick pony. He has legitimate conservative credentials, and matches up favorably against Rudy and John. He is worth getting excited about.

John Cox
Why is it I never hear anything about John Cox? Clearly he has a bad last name, but he has the best position points of anyone out there. Significantly better than McCain and Giuliani! If you haven't checked out his site, you should! www.cox2008.com

Saul said:

Libertarian is the way to go


No it isn't. Libertarians are almost as bad as Liberals, Neocons and the rest.

Russell Kirk for President! (Good lord, isn't there a single politician out there in his mold?)

McCain and Guiliani
They'd have to get past us first. The Republican base has a whole different take on these two than does the national media or the RNC.

If, by some fluke or shenanigans with the new no-paper-trail touchscreens, someone like McCain got the nomination I would sit out the election. It's not a "fit of pique," it's driving home a point to the northeastern Republican establishment. And spare us the theatrics of the "oh, but then you might end up with Hillary Clinton as president-Nancy Pelosi as Speaker-Harry Reid as Majority Leader" drivel. The economy isn't the most important issue for many of us. We care more about country (and its traditional culture and the rights guaranteed by the Constitution), faith and family.

Libertarian is the way to go
The only difference between the two main parties is basically abortion and gun control.

Both parties are virtual identical and both love big government. It's time to send a message to DC that America needs smaller goverment.

www.downsizecd.org is a great organization to watch...

Greg wrote:

However, if there is a GOP defeat, a libertarian/traditionalist faction can grow and build a stronger Republican Party.

Well said. I think a loss would be the best thing that could happen to the GOP. People always ask: But if the GOP loses, a LIBERAL will be elected; surely a semi-conservative candidate is better. This is patently false, and is surely a matter of selling out for political expediency. There is more to politics and society than the next four years, or ten for that matter.

One merely has to read some conservative writings of the 40's and 50's for confirmation. They realized that a conservative renewal might take as long as 50 (!) years, yet they strove only for a principled canon rather than political expediency. The conservative ascendency we see about us today is the fruit of their labors. Yet what do we do with it? We scratch at the sand in vain, searching for a candiadate that does not offend our sensibilities too greatly. How sad! It is time for conservatives to return to principle. To jettison the fat, whether found in the belly of the State, or the minds of those in the GOP. A few years of reflective thought outside the walls of power would do us some good.

supporters of national sales tax
supporters of national sales tax get my vote whether it is for congress, senate, or president. we have to get rid of the influence of the federal government and the only way to do that is to get rid of the tax code and the benefits and power it gives to those in washington, especially the lobbyist

McCain - No Way!
I would never vote for McCain.

He is a leader of the Senate "Sell-outs" who want to give Amnesty and other free benefits to Illegal Invaders.

He should feel lucky we are not charging him with treason. He needs to live up to his Oath of Office and enforce our borders and our laws.

He certainly ought not be President!

Besides, he is a loser on lots of other issues as well.

And Guillani is way to liberal!

Voxoreason:
I'm one of those conservatives who'd sit out the election if either Giuliani or McCain are the candidate.

If the American people are going to put a liberal in office, they're going to do it without my help.

Either of them against a Dem? A pox on both their houses.

Worth noting...
When talking about '08, the first names we hear are McCain and Giuliani, closely followed by George Allen and Newt.

Whatever happened to the "Draft Condi" movement that was so prevalent just a few months ago?

Also credible is Mitt Romney (just don't try to tell the anti-Mormon crowd out there how conservative he is...they're one-issue as far as Romney is concerned).

Point is, we true conservatives can't let public perceptions of McCain and Giuliani anoint them as our best hopes to defeat Hillary (or whoever else the loony left nominates). We've got to find someone who is more Reaganesque in their commitment to core conservative values.

Time will make more clear who that is, but it surely isn't McCain or Giuliani...

What has happend to the GOP?
We can excuse the tax raising and illegal immigrant welcomings of Mike Huckabee, because of his stance on social issues, but don't anyone dare support McCain or Giuliani because of their social agenda, even though they are proven fiscal hawks. That is basically how I read this column and if Mr. Huckabee is indeed the GOP nominee, I will vote for his opponent, no matter who it is.

What the hell happend to the Republican Party? The party of small government and fiscal responsibility? I think not. The stem cell research bill that President Bush is using his FIRST veto on, should be vetoed because of the fact taxpayer dollars should not be funding it. Nor should they be funding pork filled Highway and Energy bills. It is disgusting that we give these folks our votes, but celebrate every time they try to mess with the Constitution by attempting to ban gay marraige or flag burning. These people aren't conservatives! They don't embrace small government nor do they want fiscal responsibility! They are a bunch of beltway stooges who have no problem with big government as long as they are in charge.

The only thing that they can do to win my vote, which is still yet to be determined, is to prove that they are the lessor of two evils. I think defeat is the best thing that can happen to the GOP right now. It gets us back where we are supposed to be. Government downsizing will not happen under this majority or a Democratic one. However, if there is a GOP defeat, a libertarian/traditionalist faction can grow and build a stronger Republican Party.

What is happening now is unacceptable. The key to '08, is a nominee who will not associate themselves with any of this garbage. Rudy Giuliani has a record of proven conservative governance. Mitt Romney has also proven to be a strong leader. Newt Gingrich got us the power, but had many problems keeping it, yet his ideas could land him the nod. George Allen and John McCain have stood on solid ground on fiscal matters but are unfortunately guilty by association. I won't work to nominate them, but I will vote for them if they are. Bill Frist on the other hand, as well as many others in Congress are a no go and so is Huckabee. I don't have any intention of ever voting for them.

Every time I read columns like this, I am one step closer to leaving the GOP, and become a Libertarian. They are doing good work on reshaping their image, while the Republicans are destroying theirs. Hopefully, it won't come to this, but it doesn't look good right now.

No real '08 GOP candidate yet
Guessing at the GOP nominee in '08 is like global warming: too far out to make an informed decision.

While I consider both Insane McCain and Rudy G as weak candidates (look for libs to support them, the true skinny of the matter), many conservatives like myself will vote a straight republican ticket in '08...but to vote AGAINST dem candidates (who will be owned by the lib "leadership" in the Senate/House), not FOR republicans.

Personally, I like George Allen (on Sunday, he described Yassar Arafat as "reptilian"), but he must first win re-election to the Senate in November or get labeled a "loser."

But for conservatives to sit out elections? Why not simply contribute to liberal candidates? Same effect.

It would be an utter disgrace for the base of the GOP to sit out national elections out of a fit of pique!

How childish.

Both are on Mexico's payroll "NOT"
So, who hired you to feel the American's out to see if we are still alive,,, sorry we are, go
feed them some Taco's and have them tell the guys
at GE,Gen. Motors and the other international Corps. we are sick of them and the whole DemonPuke "money cult", we are now about to turn another direction, see you in the funny papers were you Bush Bots belong, bye , bye.

As for Georgia...
Mr. McCain and Mr. Giuliani haven't got a chance in 900 hell of winning either the '08 Republican primary or, should either be chose3n as the Republican nominee, of winning the general election.

The bottom line is they views appear to be formed along the lines of candidate marketing polls. Where are those candidates with long held deep and wide foundations of morality and courage? The ever shifting sands of opinions are suspect.

Changing one's mind in the face of convincing evidence is always the right thing to do; doing so when the evidence is weak at best and not fully researched in the least is the poverty of excuse.

There are absolutes! These two are absolutely not the ticket to replace outgoing President Bush in January 2009.

GEM



2008
Secretary Doctor Condoleezza Rice.

George Allen
George Allen for President. I just don't see anyone else that has a realistic chance of winning the presidency that also has true conservative credentials. Newt is apparently for this disgusting sell out of a plan proferred by Mike Pence on immigration and he probably has too much baggage anyway.

Yyyaaaaaaaakkk!
Sorry, I get sick when I hear the names "Giuliani" or "McCain" mentioned in conjunction with the term "Republican Presidential Candidate". I was enjoying that ham sandwich, dang it!

Some of us say 'None of the above'
Actually, I favor someone not in this article.

My choice: Tom Tancredo.

Okay, he seems to be a one horse ticket, and maybe he is - but is there ANY other single item on any agenda that is more important at this time in American history?

All across the country, now as we speak, Americans are meeting their reps from congress and giving em heck about ONE ISSUE - illegal aliens. Rep. Tancredo has been the voice about this issue for almost ten years - in the nation, not just Colorado.

But none of the MSM or even the 'alternative press' aka the internet will even admit he could have a chance and why? Because he wants what Americans want. A nation free and secure, with borders that can't just be walked across or driven across with a truck full of immigrants/slave laborers from who knows where or full of drugs.

The issue is HOT. The man clear.


How to Bake a President
Take one male, not from the North. Add a bit of spice. Mix heavily with conservatism. Add one bath of baptismal water. Strain out hypocrisy, temper, and condescension. Cook for a decade in a state governorship. Serve warm.

Conservatism is the key
I think conservatives (the largest and most energetic wing of the republican party) are fed-up with RINOs (like McCain and Giuliani) and a moderate big-spending president (43's too much like 41, unfortunately)--that's why the party and the president are down in the polls. Therefore, I think the party will nominate a true conservative: George Allen, who will easily defeat Webb to retain his senate seat.
Moreover, I believe Allen would have little trouble defeating whomever the bifurcated democrats (liberals vs. moonbats) wind up nominating. America's looking for another Reagan in these troubled times, and I think Allen comes the closest.
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