That is, unless conservatives and pro-family people unite behind a single candidate. That candidate needs to take the conservative positions on taxes, guns, life and marriage and should oppose neo-Wilsonianism in foreign policy.
If conservatives do as they did in 1988 the more liberal candidate would win. That candidate happened to be Bush '41, who was viewed by non-activist voters as being a third Reagan term. Bush was not really a liberal but he was not a conservative either. That is why he lost. The one thing voters knew about him was "read my lips. No new taxes." Then when he sought the largest tax increase in American history voters felt betrayed. If conservatives had had a single candidate in 1988 Bush could have taken second place in the Republican primaries. It wasn't until late in the game that Bush had a majority in primaries. He had pluralities, yes, but no outright majority until South Dakota.
Conservatives who are convinced that Republicans will be soundly defeated in House and Senate races this fall are nevertheless still focused on these mid-term elections. Once we are past those elections in November, suddenly conservatives will have to confront 2008. One thing is for certain. There is no Ronald Reagan who will be in that contest. No one remotely resembles him. So conservatives will be faced with either splitting up into every camp, or getting together and shining the spotlight on the candidate who most resembles what they are seeking. Senator George Allen is a possibility. The Virginia Republican is in a tough re-election of his own. There is an outside chance he would be one of those Senators defeated. Senator Sam Brownback looks attractive but is little known outside of Kansas. Senator Rick Santorum has been trailing Democrat Bob Casey, Jr. for months in the Pennsylvania polls. Should he come back and win it would be almost an upset. Others Senators, such as Charles Hagel (R-NE), also would like to run, although his views are identical on many issues to those of McCain.
Many Governors are looking at the race. Governors have been elected far more often than have Senators in recent times. Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts is touring the country, seeking support. Others Governors also are said to be interested. One that I find interesting is Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas. He is a former Baptist minister, who certainly still knows how to preach. I have heard him give spellbinding speeches to political groups. Certainly the religious right would like him, he is their kind of guy. His record on taxes is not good. But it seems he now has seen the light on that issue. If we are not to make the perfect the enemy of the good then Huckabee looks attractive. He is sound on most issues. He is likeable, like Reagan. He comes from Hope, Arkansas, from whence Clinton comes. No one was more outspoken against Clinton despite Clinton's continued popularity in Arkansas than was Huckabee.
The problem is Huckabee very well may not run. If he did, he would start from far behind. On the other hand, if he had a whole movement behind him he might be able to catch up quickly. Conservatives either can elect a winner in 2008 or be driven to the margins should McCain or Rudy get elected. It is our choice. The question is, will we make it? |