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Monday, October 20, 2008
Paul Greenberg :: Townhall.com Columnist
Hold the Hysteria
by Paul Greenberg
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“The most interesting aspect of the recent Wall Street coverage,” at least to Florence King, the grande dame and just plain grand old dame of America-watching, is the resurrection of the word Depression, which once upon a time no one dared utter. Euphemisms like correction, recession and downturn were favored instead. Now, she notes, the D-word is back in style, “wearing its de rigueur initial cap to differentiate it from mere sadness.” As an economic and historical term, Depression has the ring of a medical diagnosis. A fatal one.

With the slow fading of the Depression generation, along with knowledge of our own history, Americans toss around comparisons with the Depression with the abandonment of a broker jumping out of an upper-story window. To restore some perspective, as opposed to the manic-depressive shifts of the markets, it might help to look at the calendar and confirm that this is not the 1930s:

On July 9, 1932, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day at 41.63 — a loss of 91 percent since the Year of the Crash, 1929.

In that same three-year period, banks had been shutting their doors all over the country. In 1929, a total of 659 banks with a combined capital of $250 million went under; in 1930, 1,352 banks worth $853 million; in 1931, 2,294 with aggregate deposits of close to $2 billion.

The railroads, then the country’s prime means of moving passengers and freight, ground to a halt, laying off workers by the hundreds of thousands, and letting equipment rust because there wasn’t money to replace it.

By the last quarter of 1930, industrial production was down by half of the previous year’s. The next year, 1931, industrial employment was down by more than a third. Wages, at least those that were still being paid, plummeted. By the time Franklin Roosevelt was inaugurated on March 4, 1933, one in four Americans was out of a job.

Whatever the country and the world is facing today, it’s not the capital-D Depression of the 1930s. Not that you’d know it by reading the current book of lamentations that suffices for so much economic analysis, but the country’s gross domestic product actually rose by 2.7 percent over the past five quarters, productivity is still on a roll thanks to ever leaping technological innovations, consumer loans outside the mortgage market are actually up 5 percent year over year, commercial loans 9 percent. To those with good credit, 30-year mortgage loans at 6 or 6 1/2 percent should be readily available.

You call this a Depression? About the only thing this Panic of ’08 has in common with 1932 is a loss of faith. Once again the only thing we have to fear is fear itself — “nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance,” to quote Franklin D. Roosevelt’s first inaugural address.

Throughout his first two terms, FDR did something even more important than acting: He appeared to act. If one policy didn’t work, he tried another. Much as this administration’s firm of Paulson and Bernanke are doing now. Barack Obama might describe such jumps back and forth as “erratic,” the way he does John McCain’s ever developing economic policies. But FDR, now one of the Democratic Party’s patron saints, believed in “bold experimentation,” which kept hope alive. And hope is the essence of credit.

Undeterred by attacks from the do-nothing right, which were balanced by separate but equally ferocious attacks from the do-everything left, the new president followed his own directionless course, swerving left and right like some agile bicyclist weaving through an impossible traffic tie-up, avoiding the crashes all around him, his only aim to keep his equilibrium and restore the country’s. In the end, FDR didn’t destroy the free market but saved it, which George W. Bush said this week was the object of his administration’s latest buy-out, this time of key banks.

Franklin Roosevelt was no intellectual, thank goodness. He was more interested in practice than theory. As a presidential aide once said of FDR, he may have had only a second-class intellect, but he had a first-class temperament. Adventuresome, inspiring, congenial, supremely confident, he was the ultimate Happy Warrior, a term he coined for Al Smith.

There’s a name for what FDR had and today’s doomsayers don’t: faith. Which is a curious lack in a country that has come through so much history, and will come through the Panic of ’08, too.

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It may not be a depression now
but it is going to head that way if Obama and his leftist illuminati views make it to the White House in 17 days.

Roosevelt made it worse
It's generally accepted by most economists that Roosevelt, far from "saving the country," turned a recession into a depression with his socialist and unconstitutional programs.

OBAMA ELECTION MEANS FOUR THOUSAND DOW
BARRICK CHAVEZ OBAMA ELECTION MEANS FOUR THOUSAND DOW
lawrencehoule@yahoo.com

Roosevelt said - " The only thing to fear is fear itself. Well - ITS FEAR TIME. Within 3 days of Obama's election the Dow will collapse to FOUR THOUSAND. Obama's election with his income distribution and high taxes means the DESTRUCTION OF THE MIDDLE CLASS - A DOW OF FOUR THOUSAND turns 401k's into WORTHLESS paper.

Obama is America's Hugo Chavez. His high taxes and income redistribution will turn US into Venezuela. These policies like communist and socialist ideas lead to the destruction of the middle class and the impoverishment of the entire country. Venezuela was an incredibility rich country with a thriving middle class. Now it is an ECONOMIC DISASTER. The middle class was destroyed. If you want a SOCIALIST PARADISE like Venezuela vote Obama.


OBAMA: GREAT DEPRESSION: 15% UNEMPLOYMENT AND $10.00/GALLON/GAS


Obama high taxes means a SECOND GREAT DEPRESSION, 15% unemployment and his Iraq policies will lead to collapse of Iraqi government and oil soaring to $200.00/barrel and $10.00/gallon of gas. IRAQ IS AT THE CENTER OF THE OIL PRODUCING UNIVERSE. If Iraq falls oil will soar out of sight. This is the answer to Obama’s Afghan nonsense.

this article is beyond silly
I'm assuming that Mr. Greenberg is attempting to cheer up the populace, but his analysis makes no sense. In fact, he's doing a positive disservice by writing it.

We have a very real elephant in the room that could easily tip us into a great depression that will be worse that the one in the 30's. It's called our National Debt.

If a tiny fraction of our Foreign creditors decide not to continue financing our party, the whole house comes crashing down very quickly. Think of it as a run on the bank, but this time the bank is the USA.

Rossevelt didn't solve the Depression, he just took some of the hard edges off of it, and improved peoples' morale when they felt that someone was trying to fix it. WWII solved the Depression.

Even with that, I'm going to make a guess here. I guess that the Nat'l Debt at the time of the last Depression was small or non-existant, and the Gov't share of GDP was in the low single digits, rather than the 20% or so it is now, and the overall tax burden was low.

In other words, he had some resources to fall back on to try to help, because they all weren't used up already. Where will the resources come from today if we need them?

We may muddle through this with just a severe recession for our troubles. But the danger of a very quick, very painful, long term economic collapse are very real.

This current situation is what the left likes to call a "Teachable Moment". Mr. Greenberg may avert his eyes, but I hope at least a few of our citizens think about this more thoroughly.

Greenberg is "off-key" with this crowd
I don't think most Townhall readers are all that fond of FDR..with many probably believing FDR's policies worsened our economic situation.

People will argue that.

Perhaps they are correct.

But FDR's spirit of optimism did come at a time when our nation was in a deep pessimism, and for that he must be given credit.

David's 4:23 makes a good point that our huge problem is with the National Debt.

I think it will constrain spending by government, and probably spill over into the private sector.

I read where the national debt now is ten trillion dollars, and has doubled during the G.W. Bush administration.

That figure is so gargantuan as to be almost incomprehensible.

I think that computes to about $33,000 for every man, woman and child in the United States.

There is an article today at Washington Times wherein the Pentagon's Inspector General says Defense spending under this administration has grown so radically that the agency's auditors are totally overwhelmed by the massive expenditures, and fear that huge financial frauds are occurring.

Wll, I pretty much agree about aipac, except McCain also is groveling before this interest group.

You can see that by his often having Joe Lieberman with him on campaign stumps.

I think the GOP is even more sycophantic toward Israel than the Democrats, if that is possible.

Bravo - historical perspective
It is refreshing to read a clear, concise historical perspective on the economy. However, such a perspective is not helpful to the Obama campaign. The Big D is helpful to the candidate whose appeal is to those who can be made terrified of calamity of grave historical significance. If you are made sufficiently afraid, you will welcome "Change" without concern for what that particular "Change" consists of. (Sorry, bad grammar)

I recently spoke with my mom, an 86-year old, lifelong Republican, typical white person who is voting for Obama. She spoke to me of her fear that "the country has never been so divided". !!!!!

I reminded her that in 1860, the nation was on battlefields with rifles firing at itself. Like the economy, the nation is NOT divided to a degree without historical precedent.

It is not time to "Change the World" - it is more likely a time to bring the nation BACK to itself. Bring back the 'right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.'

The study and understanding of history would be so helpful to all of us. I wonder if Bill Ayers educational reforms include the return to the study of history - or the re-writing of it?

Now, I'll return to my current reading, Martin Gilbert's, "The First World War" where he notes much research stating that the war might have been averted if the peace-loving nations had had more powerful military strength. Peace THROUGH strength, not love.

Yes, I am a hopeless conservative. I believe in God, not Obama. I vote for politicians, I don't deify them.

Well
We don't have to figure it out today. All we have to do is wait. If Obama wins, and gets the filibuster-proof Congress he wants, we'll get to see if "hope" is enough.

My guess is that Obama will destroy the country, but maybe that's what it's going to take to make Americans realize what they had before they started voting money out of other people's pockets and into the government coffers.

Roosevelt

When he took office the national debt was about 13 billion; when he died and the war ended the debt was about 140 billion: a ten-fold increase during his 3 terms and 4 months.

http://www.cedarcomm.com/~stevelm1/usdebt.htm

comparison a bit off
I don't think anyone is claiming we are currently in a Depression. Some worry that the credit crunch means we are heading for one. So a lot of Greenberg's statistics seem rather beside the point. The point of comparison would not be 1932, but 1930.

And the reality is that the drop in the market was substantial, and we don't know which way it is going next. And the only reason we have not seen bank failures on the level of the early 30's is that government institutions are propping them up. Good things we have had democrats in power.

I don't expect another depression. Assuming the credit markets get unfrozen we are likely in for a recession due to bad policy over the last couple of adminstrations, but not anything to equal the 30's. But then it does worry me that people in the late 20's did not see depression coming either.

Fortunately I don't think we are going to see the funding freeze that would tend to push us towards something worse.

Mr. Greenberg
Whistling past the graveyard.

He should stick to reporting on the movements of the former governor of Arkansas and leave economics to those who have a better grasp of it.


We may not get to depression
but it is clear that the economic system we have grown accustomed to is going to have to be altered to avoid it.

http://euobserver.com/9/26959/?rk=1
.


Mr. Greenberg's premise is ....
...is fun to read, the opitimism part, that is, but the rest of his essay regarding FDR is way off base.

As I understand his post, if we had a president that was a kind of daddy figure who will reassure us, then we'll be okay. And if we had a government that would pretend they were doing something, the people would feel even better. This is, to be blunt, pathetic. I guess the phenomenon of "politicians as messiahs" got its start with FDR.

Government is a major part of the problem.

FDR prolonged the depression by his meddling in the free market. Trade restrictions, make-work social programs, and government dependency are part of his legacy, and we're still paying for it - in spades.

Sorry Mr. G. The last thing I want is a politican to announce to the media that he's "going to do something". That's a true optimism killer.

And I have my own, real Messiah, to worship, thank you suh!

PAUL THE ONLY PANIC !
WAS CAUSED BY THE RADICAL DEMO-RATS,LOOK WHO THEY PUT ON THE TICKET!MY GOSH! WE HAVE FAITH HE WILL NOT WIN! IF HE DOES WE ALL WIN A FREE TOASTER OVEN FROM LOUIS FARACKKAN ! EARLY VOTING STARTS IN TEXAS TODAY! MCCAIN-PALIN 08!!

Listen to Reagan
"It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job. It's a *depression* when you lose your job. And it will be a recovery when the incumbent in the White House loses his job."
-- Ronald Reagan, 1980


It's all in your head
At least that’s what the Democrap party is banking on. Yes, there’s a lot of turbulence in the markets now, similar to, but not as serious as, the temporary freefall we experienced in late 1987 (my span of reference is not as vast as Mr. Greenberg’s).

The difference is that this round of Scary Economic Talk is specifically calculated to frighten the bejeezus out of you just in time for an election. BTW, you, the public, are also supposed to come through as you always have, by assigning the blame for all economic discomfort to the occupant of the White House.

Will you comply with the wishes of the puppetmasters?

Obama will save us from another 1929.
This article is ridiculous. Never in the history of humanity has a race of people ever had it as tough as contemporary Americans do now. Our nation is devoid of hope and opportunity; our citizens are facing starvation, homelessness, and unemployment. Despair is the word of the day, and we are doomed as a people.

Unless we vote for Obama, that is. For only He has the divine wisdom to lead us out of our destitution. Only He has the proven track record to overcome all obstacles and bring forth the bountiful harvest that government was meant to provide the common citizens. Only He has the intuition to cast aside the economic folly that is capitalism in favor of socialism. Ho knows that socialism has never failed to provide the commoners with the things they need, whereas capitalism has never helped anyone but a few rich white men.

It is time to rebuild this nation under the banner of the United States Socialist Republic with Obama as our guide. He has the vision that will save mankind from itself. He is The One that the world has been waiting for. We must worship Him, for Obama is better than God: God has had countless centuries to enlighten mankind, Obama will accomplish this within weeks. Give Him the power over our destiny, other we have no hope.

Yes and No
There are parallels between our situation and the Great Depression; loss of liquidity and panic to name two. However, this does not mean the outcome will be the same. We are taking measures now that experts think would have been successful with the Great Depression. A similar scenario existed in Sweden in the 1980's and these measures worked then as well.

LD
I’ve missed your contributions these past several weeks. Good to see you again. Great stuff, as always!

Hear, Hear, Refatsew
Kudos to your praise for The One. You won't hear tales about Obama causing problems with regulatory oversight such as those that helped bring on the mortgage fiasco. I hope one of His first tasks is to investigate the Senators who thought it was just fine to accept tons of cash from the CEO of Fannie Mae when they were supposed to be providing regulatory oversight of that very entity.

I know that Obama will dig deep until these culprits are brought forward and have to answer for the act of accepting large sums of cash in exchange for not investigating the questionable bookkeeping practices that triggered huge cash bonuses to the Fannie CEO. Such a practice is the very epitome of a totally corrupt politician, and I know Obama will not permit such things to happen under His watch.

Perhaps a large chunk of our currenct economic woes could have been avoided if not for the outright greed and corruption of the individuals who accepted large payoffs from Fannie Mae, and I hope Obama catches the culprits and sees to it that they are jailed for their abuse of the public trust.

WE NEED THE FAT CATS !
THE DEMO-RATS,ARE UN-AMERICAN!!!!!!

Uh, like, excuse me
there Loyal Democrat....but BHO has taken money from Fannie and Freddie, has he not?

"and I hope Obama catches the culprits and sees to it that they are jailed for their abuse of the public trust."

LOL....

Cheerleaders
Ra, rah...go team. Fine, Mr. Greenberg.

All we need now...

Is "irrational exuberance."

Are lapel buttons that say "Whip Inflation Now" (the late President Ford's button, designed to scare inflation away: Boo!)

Wage and Price Controls: thanks, Tricky Dick. (What free market?)

Cardigan sweaters and fireside chats (thanks, Jimmy "Doom" Carter)

If that's all it'll take, then maybe Obama has something. But then his type never knows; he doesn't know what he doesn't know. Nor how much he doesn't know.

Pssst
(Silver Lion, LD is a satirist.)

McCain can win with the economy.

The Economy is what most people are concerned about. McCain can win on the economy if we promote a grass roots effort that will get the country angry at the real culprits. If Republicans send out emails like I did to everyone on my email address list, then McCain could win! Elected public officials will only accept emails from their constituents.

Therefore I have access to only a few Republican politicians. If enough people who receive this email will email their friends, Republican representatives at every level from local to the president and every conservative talk show host then America will get the message.

This was the message;
------------------------------------------------
I apologize for sending this unsolicited email, but I feel every American would like to know who caused our financial collapse which is causing your 401k and your home value to sink in value. We have been betrayed, not by the obvious greed of the banks, but by our congressmen who caused this to happen.
Let’s not put the fox in charge of the hen house. Please view all six sections of the very clearly produced video at the following link.
http://www.teleprompterpresident.com/2008/10/fnc-fbn-inves- 6.html or google the phrase, telelprompter saving our economy.

See what clinton thinks!
http://www.teleprompterpresident.com/2008/10/shocking-vide- 1.html or google the phase "Teleprompter Covering Up The Fannie Mae".
------------------------------------------------
Bob Email- netc@comcast.net


Charles...thanks
For a tiny moment there, I thought, Oh my God, don't tell me LD is for real? I am relieved, but these days, you really can't tell the moonbats from the satirists!

PAUL GOOD ARTICLE ! THANKS !!
PAUL CHECK ON GEORGE WILL HIS ARTICLE IS FULL OF CHAOS!

Man are you an idiot.
"In the end, FDR didn’t destroy the free market but saved it, which George W. Bush said this week was the object of his administration’s latest buy-out, this time of key banks."

FDR "saved" the free market? Are you a Marxist? Government under FDR or his forerunners didn't save the free market but undermined it severely after Hoover did his own damage. Government doesn't run the economy. It itself is dependent upon the economy; on business and industry. It that weren't the case there would be no taxes. Government would EARN income as any business. Government doesn't earn income. It takes it by force from the private individuals and enterprises that do earn it. And the more it takes, the more freedom and the market suffer. That's the caused of the '29 crash and subsequent depression and that is cause of the plight of the economy today. Idiot.

fdr
roosevelt planted the seeds of our destruction, and the fruit is ripe for the fall. the fact that it has taken more than 70 years does not make it any less inevitable. when social security crashes, it will be a worse disaster than the s&l crisis, the .com bubble, and the subprime crisis all rolled up into one disaster. we can thank the liberals who have steadfastly lied about social security all my life, and will continue to lie about it until the nation is RECOGNIZED to be bankrupt (it actually already is). dont even think abvout the government being able to bail us out of the current mess, all the resources have already been used up. it is time for the us to recognize that it is a bananna republic, and behave accordingly.

WHO CAUSED THE MELTDOWN?
This entire debacle was startedby Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton gave it steroids. Penny Pritzer, with Earnst and Young working through Merrill Lynch, created the sub-prime financial meltdown.
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=3021373424 05551

Bill Clinton dictated where and who would receive sub-prime loans. James Johnson was CEO at Fannie Mae when the Clinton Administration ordered the beginnings of the high risk market through the Community Redevelopment Act.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MGT_cSi7Rs&eurl=http://www. %20redstate.com/

Brad O'Leary, author of "The Audacity of Deceit: Barack Obama's War on American Values." "You can't give a tax cut to 95 percent of Americans if only 70 percent of them pay federal income taxes in the first place.” Obama’s “Bonus Welfare Checks!”
http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=76971

“Quarterly reports of profit growth revealed, “illusions deliberately and systematically created” by Fannie Mae senior management, which resulted in a $10.6 billion accounting scandal and a $3.8 million fine.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122385651698727257.html

The OFHE Oversight report said Fannie Mae employees deliberately and intentionally manipulated financial reports causing earnings targets to trigger bonuses for senior executives.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=po7J0f5TMrQ

Franklin Raines, Obama housing advisor and Fannie Mae’s former CEO. OFHEO’s report shows that over half of Mr. Raines’ compensation for the 6 years through 2003 [$100 million]was directly tied to meeting earnings targets.
http://michellemalkin.com/2008/10/13...ap-sandwiches/

The current $700 billion bailout crisis was caused by Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, John Kerry, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid in cohorts with the CEO’S of Fannie Mae. Senator John McCain introduced a bill (S.190) in 2005 that would have avoided this meltdown.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMClWTzj_HI&watch_response

MCCAIN-PALIN!
IF OBAMA WINS GAS WILL BE 10.00 A GALLON,JIMMY CARTER WILL HAVE US IN LONG GAS LINES,AND LOUIS FARACKKAN WILL PASS OUT THE KOOL-AID!
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