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Monday, November 26, 2007
Paul Greenberg :: Townhall.com Columnist
Peace Through Confusion
by Paul Greenberg
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Each calls that island in the Pacific something different. It's Chinese Taipei at the Olympics and a Separate Custom Territory to the WTO. Mr. Wu's own resume identifies him as, hold your breath, Representative of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States.

Again and again the Chinese on Taiwan have sought recognition by the United Nations under the name Taiwan - a purely ceremonial demand so long as the other, much bigger China sits on the Security Council, complete with veto power and the world's recognition.

Now the republic on Taiwan is planning a plebiscite on the question of whether the island should demand admission to the UN under the name Taiwan. This isn't diplomacy so much as a publicity stunt - and a provocation. What purpose such a plebiscite would serve eludes me. It must be the same purpose little boys pursue when they tease bulls.

Strategic ambiguity has its uses in diplomacy as well as in military affairs. It sure beats the heck out of war. There is no need for either regime to be our enemy. Clarity is. The trick is to come up with a name sufficiently ambiguous to be acceptable to both sides - Chinese Taipei, for example.

At another juncture when the clash between the two Chinas was heating up - in 1958, when the shells had begun to fly in a dispute over the offshore islands of Quemoy and Matsu - an American president named Eisenhower showed the world how to cool down a crisis.

The sophisticates tended to describe the old general as just a good-natured duffer with no sense of the finer points of diplomacy. And here he was being called on to answer some all too specific questions from the press: Would the United States enter the developing clash? How far was this administration prepared to go to defend Taiwan? Shouldn't it just abandon those little islands that Beijing claimed?

Ike's press secretary, James Hagerty, was worried. The regime on Taiwan was begging to be "unleashed" - like a feisty Pekinese barking at a huge mastiff. One wrong word at the press conference, Mr. Hagerty told his boss, and everything, namely the world, might blow up.

"Don't worry, Jim," Ike assured him. "I'll just go out there and confuse 'em." And he did. At length. The man was inarticulate like a fox. And the crisis passed.

Call it peace through confusion. Which is a much better result than war through clarity.

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Well, I was taught
to eschew obfuscation. Yet I don't see rogsfoni's 10:53 parallel. True, our historic dealings with both Arab and even Central and South American states have been disastrous whenever we have deemed it prudent to remain ambiguous and even deceptive in our efforts to act in our nation's best interest. However, Taiwan and China is the best kind of problem: Somebody else's"! Our policy's ambiguity is completely understandable to both sides, and they cannot blame us any more than themselves. We didn't create the ambiguous nature of their history. We are simply a witnessing mutual trading partner, who warns against the mutual problems both sides might face economically, should they actively pursue aggressive resolution of their dispute. We tell Beijing we won't stand for bullying and let Taiwan know that our military assistance won't help their immediate trade, but hurt it. Then its their problem! All we have to do is maintain our posture.

Its like watching a juggling act: enjoyable until it encompasses you, Keep off the stage, and appreciate the ticket price and value!

Sederoff
I suspect you'd find the same thing to be true about the younger Chinese. What I have found remarkable in trips I have taken is how increasingly incongruous the perception of communism is in relation to their market economy. Many thought that Hong Kong was doomed - yet it is still remarkably free. Today, in China, one can travel through city after city, and never see a statue or photo of Mao, find young people who've never read the "little red book", and never hear a word about Taiwan - other than in reference to trade and business. Perhaps Taiwan matters, but not at the cost of world opinion or building the country. It's as if the political class needs to keep reminding the public about the issue - or it would be entirely forgotten, or worse yet, ignored.
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