Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes,
our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the
state of facts and evidence.
- John Adams
I almost spilled my coffee. I just stood there, dumbstruck right in my own
kitchen. Flipping through the Wall Street Journal the other morning while
waiting for the oatmeal to cool, my eye was caught by an article I had to
read all the way through - then and there. It was the text of an interview
with the latest Nobel Prize laureate. No, not the one named Al Gore.
Few may have noticed, but Mr. Gore shared this year's Nobel Peace Prize with
a real scientist, or rather a whole slew of them on the UN's
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. That group's work is as
unglamorous as its bureaucratic name. It's never even made a horror film
(GLOBAL WARNING!) about the earth's being inundated as the polar icecaps
melt.
This international panel just plods along trying to find out what's really
going on with the climate. Facts are stubborn things, as dour John Adams
once noted, and it takes a lot of patient research to find and evaluate
them, then suggest an appropriate response. It's about as exciting as
bookkeeping.
Being an alarmist is a lot easier; some politicians and pamphleteers make
highly successful careers of it. Real scientists may not be pleased by the
sensationalism that envelops the whole subject of global warming. But if
they speak up, they could be labeled heretics and exiled to the farthest
reaches of academic opprobrium. For global warming has become more of a
fighting faith than a topic for calm analysis. Disagree and you're liable to
be called not just wrong but anti-science. Today it is the ultimate heresy.
One of the scientific dissenters is John Christy, a member of both the UN
panel and the University of Alabama's faculty. (He's the director of that
university's Earth System Science Center.) In a break with tradition, Dr. Christy declined to perform the traditional pas de deux of mutual flattery when Nobel laureates share the same prize. Not when Al Gore's may be the first on record awarded essentially for the kind of PR that comes too close to being propaganda. It makes you wonder what propagandist will get it next year - Michael Moore?
It turns out there are indeed reasonable things to be said about global
warming - and on television at that. I was amazed. The transcript of Dr.
Christy's interview with CNN's Miles O'Brien is worth reading: (Just set
down your coffee cup first.)
Miles O'Brien: I assume you're not happy about sharing this award with Al
Gore. You going to renounce it in some way?
John Christy: Well, as a scientist at the University of Alabama in
Huntsville, I always thought that - I may sound like the Grinch who stole
Christmas here - that prizes were given for performance, and not for
promotional activities. And, when I look at the world, I see that the carbon
dioxide rate is increasing, and energy demand, of course, is increasing. And
that's because, without energy, life is brutal and short. So, I don't see
very much effect in trying to scare people into not using energy, when it is
the very basis of how we can live in our society.
O'Brien: So, what about the movie ("An Inconvenient Truth") do you take
issue with, then, Dr. Christy?
Christy: Well, there's any number of things. I suppose, fundamentally, it's
the fact that someone is speaking about a science that I have been very
heavily involved with and have labored so hard in, and been humiliated by,
in the sense that the climate is so difficult to understand, Mother Nature
is so complex, and so the uncertainties are great, and then to hear someone
speak with such certainty and such confidence about what the climate is
going to do is - well, I suppose I could be kind and say, it's annoying to
me.
O'Brien: But you just got through saying that the carbon dioxide levels are
up. Temperatures are going up. There is a certain degree of certainty that
goes along with that, right?
Christy: Well, the carbon dioxide is going up. And remember that carbon
dioxide is plant food in the fundamental sense. All of life depends on the
fact carbon dioxide is in the atmosphere. So, we're fortunate it's not a
toxic gas. But, on the other hand, what is the climate doing? And when we
build - and I'm one of the few people in the world that actually builds
these climate data sets - we don't see the catastrophic changes that are
being promoted all over the place. For example, I suppose CNN did not
announce two weeks ago when the Antarctic sea ice extent reached its
all-time maximum, even though, in the Arctic in the North Pole, it reached
its all-time minimum.
And so heretically on. There are others like Dr. Christy out there in the
scientific community who don't believe the best way to approach science is
in a panic.
For example, Daniel Botkin of the University of California's Center for the
Study of the Environment. His is an opinion some of us mere laymen may
share: "My concern is that we may be moving away from an irrational lack of
concern about climate change to an equally irrational panic about it."
The planet does seem to be returning to one of its warmer phases, but the
extent, cause and response to that phenomenon should be a matter for
analysis and discussion, not frenzy.
It's as if we've forgotten that the first qualification for doing science
may be a certain skepticism. I come by mine naturally when the subject is
global warming, for I can remember being taught in school not that the
planet is warming but that another ice age is almost upon us. It was a
widespread assumption at the time taught as scientific fact. There was no
doubt about it. All the scientists agreed. It said so right there in the
book. I must have missed it somewhere along the way.
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