Townhall.com, Where Your Opinion Counts
Talk Radio:   Bill Bennett   Mike Gallagher   Dennis Prager   Michael Medved   Hugh Hewitt   
BREAKING NEWS  LeftArrow - Townhall.com : Conservative, Political, Republican   RightArrow - Townhall.com : Conservative, Political, Republican  
Columns, funnies & more in your inbox!
  • Check the boxes and send us your email address to receveive your free newsletter
  • Your daily must-read of conservative columns, cartoons and news. Coulter, Sowell, Krauthammer and more.
  • Townhall.com’s weekly inside scoop on what’s happening behind the scenes in the world of politics. When news breaks, we report.
  • Signup to receive the latest daily Townhall cartoons
Monday, September 17, 2007
Paul Greenberg :: Townhall.com Columnist
Economics vs Politics
by Paul Greenberg
Vote on It:
Average Vote:
[+] Text [-]
 
Poll
Was the Copenhagen Global Warming Summit Walk-Out a Win for the U.S.?


With gasoline prices now only medium outrageous, Gentle Reader may have forgotten how eager politicians were last year to find someone to blame when the pain at the pumps was off the charts.

The usual congressional investigation was hastily called, the usual outrage expressed, and the usual suspicions voiced with the usual lack of any economic effect. Then the political ritual was concluded, prices fell in the normal course of economic events, and few now ask whether there was anything to all that talk. It's a question worth asking as a lesson in politics - and economics.

Mark Pryor, the junior senator from Arkansas, was one of those making roundhouse accusations back then. In search of the nearest scapegoat for high oil prices, he settled for the same old one: dastardly Big Oil. The senator was out to protect us, so he said, from "the greed and profiteering in the oil marketplace" - not to mention economic literacy.

So what happened? Even though Sen. Pryor joined a number of his colleagues in trying to bully the Federal Trade Commission into cooking up some evidence to back up his conspiracy theory, all the FTC could do was reach the same conclusion it usually does: There was no substance to his charges.

Once again the bogeyman turns out to be nothing more sinister than the law of supply and demand. Sure enough, when supply dwindles and demand goes up,so do prices. Big surprise.

But every time gas prices go up, a certain kind of politician is shocked, shocked! Or at least pretends to be. And demands an investigation. Which is a lot easier than taking Economics 101 all over again.

Naturally the politician blames some vague, amorphous monster out there like Big Oil rather than the real-life owner-operator of your neighborhood filling station. After all, the little guy votes.

And it's too much trouble to think this thing through - as Henry Hazlitt did in his dandy little primer, "Economics in One Lesson."

To quote Mr. Hazlitt, "we cannot hold the price of any commodity below its market level without in time bringing about two consequences. The first is to increase the demand for that commodity. Because the commodity is cheaper, people are both tempted to buy, and can afford to buy, more of it. The second consequence is to reduce the supply of that commodity. Because people buy more, the accumulated supply is more quickly taken from the shelves of merchants. But in addition to this, production of that commodity is discouraged."

Gosh, just like gasoline last year.

If there's an avaricious cartel setting oil-and-gas prices, it's called OPEC. But oil sheikhs and Venezuelan caudillos are scarcely subject to a congressional investigating committee.

If there's a conspiracy at work here, it's the dismal science itself -economics. It's been refuting demagogues ever since they've been taking advantage of our anger, suspicion and ignorance. Hey, somebody's got to be blamed when we're unhappy. Especially somebody rich and powerful. What better scapegoat than Big Oil?

The art and science of economics may never be as simple or dramatic as Mark Pryor's populist rhetoric. But the study of economics may have the great advantage of clarifying things rather than hopelessly muddling them. Attached as we all may be to our own favorite conspiracy theory, along comes an actual investigation, and it goes poof. Which is just what's happened,again, to Mark Pryor's.

To quote the latest report from the FTC's investigators, whose prose isn't exactly scintillating: "The 2006 price increases were caused by a confluence of factors reflecting the normal operation of the market."

Aw shucks. And just when we were getting the tar and feathers ready for those oil executives.

And what were the factors that drove gas prices higher last summer? Among them, greater demand for fuel by vacationers (another big surprise), the still lingering effects of hurricanes (Katrina and Rita) that shut down refineries along the Gulf Coast, reduced oil refining capacity as producers switched to ethanol, and, as you might have expected, greater demand for both crude oil and ethanol. What, no conpiracy? How boring.

Once again the FTC found no evidence that gas prices were being manipulated by some sinister cabal in this country's boardrooms. Despite Senator Pryor's demand for more government regulation of gas prices (shades of Jimmy Carter's long lines back in the '70s), the FTC couldn't come up with any facts to support him.

This isn't the first time a sleek conspiracy theory has run aground on the rocky shore of fact. To quote Joseph Simons, a former director of the FTC's Bureau of Competition: "The FTC has looked at the same phenomenon, which occurs almost every year, year after year, and they get the same result. Why people think it's going to come out any different the next time is unclear. It's a waste of taxpayers' money."

But it's not a waste of ambitious politicians' efforts. They get to posture before the cameras and demand ACTION! -even if it's precisely the wrong kind.

The pols may be wrong again and again, year after year, but think of the advantages. They're able to strike while public anger is at its zenith, appease their louder and less thoughtful constituents, and they never have to say they're sorry by the time gas prices fall and the public's interest in the subject has waned. (Somehow they never get around to demanding a probe when gas prices go down.)

That's the way it is with wild accusations; the facts may never catch up. Or if they do, the story is relegated to the business section. Ho hum.

The price of gasoline may rise and fall and rise again, like that of any other commodity, but the market for demagoguery remains remarkably stable.

Share:
Vote on It:
Average Vote:
 
About The Author

 
TOWNHALL DAILY: Sign up today and receive Townhall.com daily lineup delivered each morning to your inbox.
Greed
What caused the evil oil companies to become less greedy and bring prices down from the recent peaks? Did our best-of-all-solutions invasive government suddenly become effective with their threats to rescind the laws of supply and demand. Hell, why don't they go ahead and try that routine some more. If at first you don't succeed, try, try again. http://www.poorgrandchildren.com

Not to change the subject.........
but why are we not addressing the influx of unskilled human capital by the open borders crowd ("In the middle of actions on Defense next week(9/17-21), the open-borders Senators are going to attempt to attach three proposals that would give amnesty to millions of illegal aliens and dramatically increase the importation of additional foreign labor for American jobs.

Many of the Senators who helped us kill the Comprehensive Amnesty in June are indicating they are in favor of these preferences for illegal foreign workers and new foreign workers over American workers.") instead of the NYMEX.

gas tax
If our Great Democratic Leaders of Congress (GDLOC) really want to help with the price of gasoline…why don’t they cut the tax on each gallon by the amount they think that we are being over-charged?

Greed and prices
Poor, in your post, you said the oil companies lowered their prices because they were suddenly less greedy. The opposite is true. They actually lower their prices due to greed. Lower prices mean more sales volume. They are always trying to be a penny cheaper than the next guy, because then their sales will increase. They make a little less per gallon, but sell more gallons.

Greed, combined with competition, is good. It will eventually lead to even lower prices than we see today.

Paul the Demoncraps
are just following their natural communist tendencies. Anytime evil big business make a profit it is bad and it hurts poor people. Never mind that the Dems biggest constituency of "poor" people in the urban areas do NOT own a car and do NOT drive, high gas prices hurts them. And what has caused these high prices? Why unbridled greed causes them according to the communists. Never mind that the oil companies profits are less than Wrigley’s profit on a pack of chewing gum. Never mind that the Federal taxes are about double the profit made on gasoline by ALL of the marketers from birth to death of the fuel. It is unbridled greed pure and simple. And what is the fix for this evil greed? Why it is the same fix that the communists ALWAYS have for every problem that occurs…..another TAX. Never mind that another tax will increase the price of gasoline again, logic isn’t one of the stronger points of the commie Dems arguments.

In point of fact, the prices of gasoline are not that high when inflation is factored in. Another fact is that the majority of the elevated price is caused by the Dems. First there is the taxes. Second there is the artificial scarcity cause by limiting the drilling locations in the U.S. Third there is the artificial scarcity caused by limiting the building of refineries. Fourth there is the addition of thousands of useless regulations that increase the price of everything. And lastly, there is the stupid non-solution of federal requirements for ethanol. A non-solution in search of a problem.

Exxon-Mobile made 10 cents
on the dollar in 2005 and 13 cents on the dollar in 2006. (I'm a stockholder.)

How many millions did Bill and Hill make on their autobiogs in that time?

How much interest did the Kennedys and Kerrys make?

And the oil co.'s provide REAL goods and services, not pickles and ketsup. They take the risk in exploration. They are under the gun of environmentalism all steps of the way. Their workers often face both physical danger from nature and local and foreign politics.

Until we get out and walk everywhere, we're going to need oil-based energy.

Who's greedy?
In the tradition of Gov LePetomaine from Blazing Saddles( Gentlemen, we've got to protect our phoney balogna jobs!), Sen Pryor wants to respond to high gas prices by making them higher, which is the inevitable result of adding an additional cost factor. BTW, of the $3 you pay per gallon, about 27 cents go to oil co profits and depending on your state, taxes range from 40-55 cents. The other action of the left is to restrict the amount of oil on the market. We know where a lot of oil is, but the tree huggers prevent us from drilling for it. The Cubans ans Chineese are drilling in the Gulf of Mexico in areas which are closer to our soil than we can drill in even though they are in international waters. It's like recommending a high fat, high calorie diet for weight loss.

I almost forgot
If you are an ethanol fan(for fuel, not drinking), how do you like the effect it's had on food prices-$4/gal for milk, meat prices going up like the space shuttle, and the riots in Mexico over higher tortilla prices. Our economy literally runs on BTUs and there is no other fuel that matches the BTU density of oil. Then again, if you want to induce cardiac arrest in your favorite enviro-nut, suggest nuclear power.

I'm a right-wing,
knuckle dragging conservative capitalist who believes in letting the market (supply & demand) set prices. But oil/gasoline is an entirely different animal.

Fifty years ago we had a very similar situation with the steel industry. There were only three or four major players at the time. The executives all knew one another and they set steel prices out on the golf links. They were finally investigated and some steel execs actually went to jail.

Today, just as before in steel, there are only a couple of major players in the refining & distribution of gasoline. They can set the price wherever they want to, and that's exactly what they do.

When I see the price at the pump of my local gas station literally change two or three times in a single day, please don't insult my intelligence by attributing it to "normal market influences."

Senator Pryor
Senator Pryor's remarks, fails to harm the Big Oil companies, because he does not change the texture of the debate.Adam Smith discusses Economics from the standpoint of guarded self-interest.However, Mr. Smith was not exposed to the art of Marketing or its impact.Consumers,which was the context of the Senator's remarks,still examine price through the supply-side as opposed to the demand.The demand side; places the consumer in a position, wherein he/she examines the why of consumption.People driving cars they cannot afford or do not reasonably have a"NEED" for.The controlling question for cars remain;What kind of CAR do you WANT?WRONG question,WRONG answer, and WRONG "ECONOMICS".When the Senator,and ALL others,change the context of the debate,supply will yield to DEMAND.Prices will drop!!To "WANT", is extremely EXPENSIVE....

RE: michigander
"Today, just as before in steel, there are only a couple of major players in the refining & distribution of gasoline."

Let's see how many "distributors" I can recall that I drive by every day on the way to work:

Exxon
Kelly's
Citgo
Texaco
(Some ma-and-pa station I can't remember the name)
Shell

....Thats all I can remember off the top of my head.

How many manufacturers of sneakers can you name off the top of your head? 3? 4 at the outside? Does that mean Nike has a virtual monopoly?

Exxon/Mobile is the largest non-government owned oil company on planet Earth. They are a MASSIVE corporation, bringing in more in gross revenues every year than Microsoft, IBM, GE, and Intel COMBINED. Yet they represent a measely **3%** of the world oil market.

Please, before you make yourself look silly again, actually do a little research before posting again.

Exxon is not the biggest
Actually, Exxon is down at number 5 or 6 on the list of biggest oil producers. Only one other private company is ahead of it, Royal Dutch, and the rest are state owned oil companies and they do have the power to set production levels that regulate price as people bid on a reduced supply.

Exxon can and does increase its production but OPEC cuts supplies to keep prices high. Oil companies don't set prices. Bidding sets prices and State Owned Oil Companies set production levels so that prices stay high to fuel their governments revenues from oil sales. 80% of all oil reserves are in the hands of State run companies.

Even in countries where Exxon pumps, the state can control what Exxon (and all other private companies) pumps and exports. Keeping prices high and production down extends the life of those countries oil fields they depend on to finance corrupt governments (in some cases). If they upped the production, as soon as the oil ran out, the government would collapse and they are desperate to avoid that, so they slow production and that keeps the money flowing in from higher prices.

When Exxon made $10 billion, it was after $6 billion was taken in taxes. They actually made $16 billion. The more Exxon makes, the more our government gets. So, who has an incentive to lower oil profits if it is going to cut billions from government's tax revenues.

There was a guy in one state who was making his own fuel from waste cooking oil or something like that. The government charged him with tax evasion of some type (gas tax) for doing it because they said it wasn't fair nor legal he wasn't paying the taxes in gas prices. In a sense, I guess that since he uses the roads that gas taxes are supposed to fund, they are right but, it is interesting that not using oil, caused him to get into tax trouble.

Gee, maybe we ought to tax people that walk to work for not paying their share of gas tax.


Demand a free market
Government restrictions do more to raise prices and make them so volatile then then any naturaly economic force. Consider:

- Its impossible to build a refinery due to regulation.

- Direct gas taxes make up about 20% of the cost at the pump

- We are not allowed to drill in our own contry

Out west we have more oil available then the entire middle east combined. Its in shale. Its also illegal to access. If we were allowed to build refineries and allowed to apply technological advances to getting to that oil, gas prices would plummet. If we were allowed to access it, we would be entirely energy independent.

Heard in the news today
Most Corporations are expecting their sales to rise, but few are expecting they will hire.

Excuse me, but where do the executives expect people to get the money to spend on their cheap junk that they are selling these days?

Out of the air? Maybe they expect us to start our own businesses?

Here's a news flash: if you are sinking all of your money into a start-up business, there is nothing left over to buy usless junk at Walmart.

Gasoline Prices
have at least one odd factor. They go up on rumor, or actual events near or far.

The reality is that oil from the Middle East takes about a month to arrive at the US refinery via tanker ship, after it is pumped out of the ground. The oil sits in a tank at the refinery for about 10 days or so, then gets refined into gasoline over the next 2 to 3 days. Then the gasoline sits in more tanks for about 20 days or so, and finally it gets to the gas station where I can buy it.

Typically, that is about 60 days from oil well to gas station.

Then, the gas station operator sets his price based on events of THAT DAY or the day before, not on the price of the oil the day it was pumped from the ground, plus the costs to ship it and refine it. (An oil pipeline is blown up, or extremists take over an oil platform, etc and etc).

A normal industry sets prices based on the actual cost of production / transportation for the goods it is selling, with a little extra for overhead and profit.

Can anyone explain this?

beowulfe, you wrote...
"Let's see how many "distributors" I can recall that I drive by every day on the way to work:

Exxon
Kelly's
Citgo
Texaco
(Some ma-and-pa station I can't remember the name)
Shell"
*************************************************
I was referring to the "refining & distribution" of product to the retailers. Sure, there's a zillion retailers with different names, but their product comes from just a few refiners & distributers. Kelly's and Speedway and Mom & Pop and Stop & Go and Quick-Stop, etc., etc. don't have refineries; they just sell the stuff to schlucks like you and me. Back to the Steel analogy, you don't buy your steel from the steel companies, you buy it from retailers in the form of automobiles, refrigerators and washing machines.
*************************************************
"How many manufacturers of sneakers can you name off the top of your head? 3? 4 at the outside? Does that mean Nike has a virtual monopoly?"
*************************************************
YUP!
Have you priced sneakers lately?

Texn Engineer
Quick response to your question about market reactions to real-time events: the retailers price based upon replacement cost, which runs through the chain, as opposed to inventory cost on what they already have. A geopolitical event that has the potential to disrupt supply and therefore increase prices immediately increases the cost across the entire collection, refinining and distribution spectrum. The retail price you see is just the public face of a phenomenon that is going on throughout the supply chain.

And Mountain Rose, the U.S. economy is at full employment. If you cant' find or keep a job, I would be surprised if it's the government's fault.

Refineries
ExxonMobil, Shell, Equilon, Texaco, Chevron, BP, Valero, Tesoro, Western Refining, ConocoPhillips, Marathon, Citgo, Sun, all have refineries in the US.

There are others also, for a total of about 125 refineries in the US. I say about, because some startup and others shut down from time to time.

Valero has the most refineries with 17 or 18, and the largest market share. (Valero is in the process of selling a refinery in Ohio).





gas prices
Also, there are two markets that gas and oil are purchased on. The spot price for oil and the futures prices for oil.

You can "lock in" a price for a future delivery or you can wait for the price bid for all gas and oil not already under contract.

In high supply markets, some discount stations could do very well selling gas they bought on the spot market when there was more supply than demand.

If a refiner or manufacturer that uses oil for products they make from oil, believes that supply will be short due to next summer's storms, wars, declining oil fields, etc. they can bid to have oil sold to them now but, not delivered until next summer. If a lot of companies believe the same thing, that supplies will be short next summer, they bid up the price. Then when they get the oil they have to pay that price even though the "spot price" may have dropped a lot.

Thus, most won't buy all their oil on the futures market. Also, bidding on this coming winter's demand for heating oil and natural gas, is going on and that has affects on prices too as some try to "average out," the expectations they have as those deliveries come in and are sold to the consumers.

Prices aren't set by natural gas companies, oil companies, or refiners. They have "mark ups" but for the most part, the price is set by bidding on both the current sale of those things and the future deliveries that are "contracted" now.


More on prices and fuel taxes
Look at what the bids are for oil now.

Here in the U.S. on the NYMEX the oil for sale today is selling at $79.11 but oil being bought for delivery in 2010 is selling for $70.69 and for oil being bought for delivery in 2015, it is $69.07 or over $10 less a barrel. That is because they think oil supplies will be higher then in comparison to demand than now.

The reverse of that happens often too. The price in a year or two or five may be higher than now if they think fields are drying up faster than new ones can be found or demand is growing faster than supply.

We pay at the pump, both a combination of prices paid on the spot market and the futures market because some of the gas we buy was contracted years ago for current delivery.

However, gas taxes are another issue. They pay for roads and bridges which are in decay because we don't collect enough to cover pork and waste and growth in population. Now with Congress working on legally immigrating another 67 to 100 million people as the 78 million retire, we face a need for 1/3 more roads and bridges when we can't even maintain what we have adequately.

For all the waste, corruption and pork, that could be eliminated, we still face a crisis because consumers don't want to pay even what is needed for normal expansion of our infrastructure as our population grows by 1/3 again over the next 20-30 years. And it isn't just roads and bridges. Water, sewer, power grids, schools, prisons, hospitals, etc. will all have to increase by nearly 1/3 too. That will take a lot of tax dollars when 78 million leave the work force and stop paying taxes and start drawing from tax revenues.


Government is to blame
High gas prices are simply a symptom of inflation - a government caused phenomenon. Exactly what happened in the early 70s for the same reasons - a massive increase in the expense of government due to war and an expanded welfare state. Bush is just Johnson/Nixon all over again. You want prescription drugs, medicare, food stamps, medicaid, No Child Left Behind, wars in the Middle East or Asia, you have to pay for it all. Inflation is the sneaky way government makes us pay. You don't have to raise taxes when you can simply print the money to pay for it all, and Republicans can claim they didn't raise your taxes! No, they lowered your standard of living another way.

Columbia part of Nafta: what's next?
David Dreier was on Hugh Hewitt today, reporting on how we are going to be sending jobs now to Columbia.

Great (dripping with sarcasm)! Just what we need.

Dreier told Hugh we should feel better because the jobs would be staying in this Hemisphere.

Thanks David, I feel ever so better about losing my job to a country closer to home! (more sarcasm)

CAN
Anyone please explain all the stupid arse high profits the oil co. are making? I am also a knuckle dragging capitalist and I am all for free enterprise, MAKES THE FREE WORLD GO ROUND, but how bout you make a fair profit and i don’t go broke driving to work.
P.S. this also has to do with food prices EVERYTHING moves by a truck, sooner or later.

Doc - oil profits
Not only are the profits devalued when put into dollars but, they are from the oil prices controlled by the bidders who in turn are bidding higher and higher because 80% of all oil reserves are in "state controlled" fields around the world. They depend on high oil prices to fund their governments and thus, any decline in demand is met with a decline in production. Now, however, with India and China and much of Asia in double digit growth for demand of oil, they only have to keep the increase of production to just at demand rates or slightly below to keep the price high.

We are funding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela with oil sales and the lower their production, the longer their fields last and the money for the oil in them, flows in. We depend on oil sales in dollars to prop the dollar up. The dollar's value is only based on demand for it. As a nation we owe more than we own now, (GAO report 2007) and only demand keeps the dollar at even current value levels. Much of that demand comes because other nations need dollars to buy oil with. OPEC agreed to sell oil in only dollars if we would protect them (1971) when the dollar was collapsing. We needed to keep buying foreign oil to keep that demand for oil being sold in dollars high enough that they would only sell oil in dollars. If we became oil independent, they would have no reason to sell in dollars and our currency would collapse almost overnight.
Sign Up to Post Your CommentsSign Up to Post Your Comments
If you are already registered, click here to login. Otherwise, please take a few seconds to register with Townhall.com. Once you sign up, you’ll be able to post your comments immediately, use the action center, get podcasts, and more!
Note: Fields marked with a red asterisk (*) are required.
Salutation:
First Name:
*
Last Name:
*
Email:
*
Nickname:
*
Note: Nick name will be shown when you post comments.
Address 1:
*
Address 2:
City:
*
State:
*
Zip:
*
Phone:
      
Your daily must-read of conservative columns, cartoons and news. Coulter, Sowell, Krauthammer and more.
(Bi-Weekly) We highlight the best opportunities from our partners for surveys, action items and more.