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Tuesday, May 15, 2007
Paul Greenberg :: Townhall.com Columnist
Ah, science!
by Paul Greenberg
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Was the Copenhagen Global Warming Summit Walk-Out a Win for the U.S.?


Dear Colleague,

It was wholly a pleasure to hear from a fellow editorial writer over there in beautiful North Carolina. Thanks for letting me know that a letter to the editor we published here at the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette was being cited all over the Internet. I'd gathered as much from the flood of e-mails wondering if that letter was for real.

I only wish our editorials were as popular, but right now we're just trying to expand our influence in growing metropolitan areas here in Arkansas like Hogeye, Smackover and Standard Umpstead. Not to mention Ralph, Waldo and Emerson, Ark. (Although there is apparently no truth to the rumor that one of our country routes goes from Tinker to Evers to Chance.)

To only slightly modify a line from Stephen Vincent Benet, I have fallen in love with Arkansas names-the sharp names that never get fat. But if I ever did aspire to expand our circulation across state lines, Hot Coffee, Miss., sounds nice. Especially early in the morning.

But where was I? Oh, yes, the letter in question ("Daylight Exacerbates Warming," Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, April 16, 2007) drew attention from Juneau to Timbuktu. It was the work of the Sage of Hot Springs, Ark., Connie Meskimen-a lawyer there who keeps his powder dry and tongue firmly planted in cheek.

There's no need to go into the scientific details, but the burden of his missive was that by, moving Daylight Savings Time up a month this year, thus providing an extra hour of sunlight in March, Congress had thoughtlessly brought summer on in spring.

Well, sure. It makes as much sense as anything else Congress does. Personally, I don't buy it. My own theory is that global weather patterns have been out of sync ever since those softies in Washington cut out nuclear testing in the atmosphere.

Scientific theories abound, and you're welcome to your own favorites, including proofs that turn out to be spoofs. When I was growing up, it wasn't global warming that was going to wipe us all out but a new ice age. Time Magazine said so. Or maybe it was Newsweek-as late as 1975.

I am sure, however, that it was Paul Ehrlich-who is to scientific prediction what the New York Times' Paul Krugman is to economic analysis-who warned that social chaos was unavoidable because the world's population was exploding. ("The Population Bomb," 1968.)

I can recall writing a more than slightly hysterical editorial on the subject at the time for that leading scientific journal, the Pine Bluff (Ark.) Commercial. It would be remembered to this day if I'd had the wit, or maybe just merchandising savvy, to head it "An Inconvenient Truth." Nobody ever went broke overestimating the American public's capacity for panic.

Naturally, the Heinz Foundation would later give Paul Ehrlich and the Mrs. a Lifetime Achievement Award or some such, complete with a check for $250,000. The disaster-predicting business does have its upside. I expect Paul Krugman to get his Nobel in economics any year now.

As for whether Connie Meskimen meant his letter to the editor to be taken seriously, I suspect he-not she, as so many of those who reacted to the letter assumed-was out have some serious fun.

Counselor Meskimen is said to conduct these Rorschach tests for the depths of American gullibility from time to time, and he hasn't hit bottom yet. We seem to have an oceanic capacity for mistaken assumptions.

I've lost count by now of the oh-so-serious inquiries from graduate students and members of science faculties, including one or two at Ivy League universities, who have asked whether the letter writer was serious. These people wouldn't be able to detect satire if it showed up under their microscopes.

Then there were the folks here in Arkansas, image-conscious as ever, who were infuriated that we'd publish such a letter, fearing it would leave the impression that Arkies are a bunch of scientific ignoramuses. As opposed, I guess, to all those literal-minded, sober-sided, absolutely humorless scientific twits who were appalled by the letter and eager to set the writer straight.

Inky Wretch

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Interesting
But, there is a fairly overwhelming amount of evidence for global warming.

global warming...
.. is the latest "crisis du jour" from the left in the latter's continuing efforts to find a suitable replacement for the death of communism. Somehow, someway, they believe, common people must be controlled by government so the new, doomsday prophets have gone green.

In my lifetime thus far, it was the article's mentioned panic about an exploding population, then it was a new ice age and now, (tada!), global warming.

Surrender your incomes along with your SUVs, people, and do it now! The left can't fake this much longer!

The "overwhelming evidence", by the way, is that the earth warms and cools in cycles, and has done so for millenia on end (no pun intended). I know, it's boring to accept, but ultimatley, finding a life can be very exciting to those who finally surrender their delusions.

Fiction and Swindle and Origin
A couple videos and a good read:

A Convenient Fiction (1)
The Great Global Warming Swindle (2)
Global Warming: The Origin and Nature of the Alleged Scientific Consensus (3)

(1) http://www.aconvenientfiction.com/
(2) http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=4499562022478442170]
(3) http://www.cato.org/pubs/regulation/regv15n2/reg15n2g.html

What saddens me
is how vulnerable kids are to this unproven tripe. I had a 7th grade girl with tears in her eyes ask me at school today if Polar Bears were going to all die from global warming. It is sad that kids, who have plenty of other things going on in life, are put in a position to add things like this out of their control on top of the worries they already have.

wil
Your so right. It is sickening how Liberals always claim "It's For The Children!" Yet their vast schemes for control never consider the unintended consequences that do untold damage to children.

Arkansas = Dogpatch
Ya gotta love the state of Arkansas, right? It gave us Paul Greenberg, as well as Bill and Hillary Clinton. I become it was also the fictional home of Al Capp's much-mourned "Dogpatch." I was there once. That was enough.

Anyhoo . . .

I believe the revival of the GOP is well underway, and we'll see that tonight on the debate. The last time around (Reagan Library Debate) I had what some people regard as the best analysis of the event. It was posted at 3:49 a.m.! Nope, didn't get much sleep that particular night. I'd have another analysis up tomorrow morning early. Come to my site and bookmark it; then, return tomorrow for a first-rate discussion. (Click on name above).

Good luck to all the candidates.

suv drivers--on mars
Are the Martian SUV drivers aware of the global warming taking place on their planet?
It is solar variability that is the reason.

To abc123cba
Actually, it appears that the warming has turned and we are now in a cooling cycle. I used to think that we were in a warming cycle a few years ago but I found that the UN scientists had recently adjusted the fudge factors for "computing" measured temperatures. That made me rethink. We know that the earth's temperature oscilates within ocilations within oscilations. Whether or not man's activities contributes to that in a measurable manner is where the difficulty lies.

We have seen that CO2 increases AFTER the temperature goes up, so we know that increases in CO2 are NOT the cause of temperatures going up. That means that IF man is causing anything, it is not due to CO2 and the whole carbon trading scam is a fraud.

Vic
Along those lines. When the Boracle sells his Carbon Offsets. I have yet to see a Liberal explain what he/she is buying. And or what they have to show for their purchase.

Yet they worship at the feet of this scam artist as if he were a God. Accepting and believing anything this idiot says.

To Goshawk
maybe they think they are contributing to his reelection campaign.

I never try to second guess liberals. One has to be irrational to determine why irrational behavior occurs.

Some boring, some not
Nice article about how pedestrian Ark is and how nice and witty some folks are. Boring but hey, everyone does a softy article on occasion and I don't fault them. I'm sure they are nice folks despite spitting out the Clintons onto the national stage.

What I noted was that photograph of a protester in Argentina. Bashing Al Gore! Bush get booed in south america, the Columbian President gets the cold shoulder from the Dem congress and we hear all about it.

Did ANYONE see ANYTHING about Gore getting protestors? Hello (again) MSM, kinda deaf in your Left ear no?

on Global Warming
I think even the most ardent skeptics can agree, yes, the earth is (probably) warming. And some portion of that (might) be caused (or contributed) by the industrial output of human civilization.

The problem then becomes -- SO WHAT?

As I understand, even the most ardent supporters say temperatures will go up in the next CENTURY by a WHOPPING TWO DEGREES (maybe).

Certainly there will be changes in that span, some more damaging than others -- some actually beneficial.

But -- the end of the world? New York under 23 feet of water? Completely absurd. Chicken Little on Double-Dose Steroids.

A defense-
-of those who couldn't identify satire.

As one who has had satire taken seriously on blog sites before, it has been pointed out to me that with the number of ridiculous things going out as purportedly true, sometimes satire is hard to identify.

Satire
The problem with satire is not that it looks believable. It doesn't look believable at all. The problem is that PEOPLE have become too STUPID to recognize it! Personally, I believe many people have become de-sensitized to riduculousness. I mean, they hear it all the time from the Democrats, and the Democrats keep insisting that it is true, despite tons of logical, scientific, economic, sociological, etc. evidence against it. If people will believe that:

1) Abortion does not kill a living human being;

2) Raising the minimum wage will not increase unemployment;

3) Income tax cuts on the upper brackets benefit only the rich;

4) Lower income tax rates necessarily result in lower tax revenues;

5) Tax cuts hurt the economy;

6) Welfare gets poor people out of poverty;

7) Terrorists can be reasoned with;

8) Islam is the "Religion of Peace";

9) The Amazon Rain Forest is the "Lungs of the Planet";

10) Spotted owls can ONLY survive in "Old Growth Forests";

11) A complete thaw of the Arctic Ice Cap will raise sea levels at all;

12) The earth was never as warm as it is now;

13) Carbon Dioxide levels in the atmosphere have never been as high as they are now;

14) Ice core samples are useful in determining pre-historic temperatures and carbon dioxide levels;

15) Al Gore gives a rat's a$s about carbon dioxide levels, as he leaves his house (which burns as much electricity and gas in one month as my house does in a year), gets in his limousine (what? 3 miles per gallon?), rides to the airport and gets in his Lear jet (in which he and maybe 4 other people burn as much jet fuel as a fully-packed airliner with 300 people), flies out to LA to hobnob with all the other celebrities (who also have huge houses, huge cars, and private jets), so he can receive an academy award for a "documentary" that has about as much truth in it as a science fiction movie;

then they'll believe anything!

Regards,
Trevor

Today is a bad day for the AGW kooks.
"The average temperature in April 2007 was 51.7 F. This was -0.3 F cooler than the 1901-2000 (20th century) average..."

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/na.html

OOPS!

"Many former believers in catastrophic man-made global warming have recently reversed themselves and are now climate skeptics."

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=927b9303-802a-23ad-494b-dccb00b51a12&Region_id=&Issue_id=

DARN!

Doesn't it just stink knowing you are now losing the battle to dupe the unwitting into shoveling billions of dollars to pay for junk science AGW scaremongerers?

GOOD JOB,TREVOR AND BEOWULF!!!
.

Goshawk,
The first time I heard about global warming offsets, I thought I was reading satire.

I thought it was a reference to the indulgences the Catholic Church used to issue.

Remember that episode of Friends when Phoebe was pregnant and had cravings for beef? Joey decided to give up meat so that no extra cows would be killed. Maybe we can all sell beef offsets so that a vegan can have an occasional steak. Maybe I'll put that up on eBay.


Unca Alby
Remember, if we spend $x,000,000,000,000, the water will only rise 22.75 feet, instead of 23.00 feet.

If any alarmist were to actually realize that we'd have to build a levee system anyway, I could point out that we wouldn't have any money left over to do so.

It's a premise not supported by any analysis that even if man were the proximate cause of the latest climate cycle, that we'd be better off trying to limit carbon emissions instead of adjusting to the better -- I mean higher -- temperatures.

AHA
Somehow I'd rather focus on American self-interest which would cause us to move away from petroleum not because of global warming, but because it will end our reliance on unreliable and dangerous third world countries whose instability has reated a never ending cycle of headaches for Americans and every administration we elect. We'd never go to those countries for vacations, have no great desire to own jungle or desert, yet find ourselves paying an inordinate amount of money and attention to these people.

To eban
The problem is that "petroleum" is not the problem. Transportation is only a small part of the so-called CO2 issue. it is smokestack industry that is the problem. Cows flatulence is a bigger problem that transportation for AGW.

Ok I irritated you on purpose
Here we go counter a few if your own "fictions"
>
Martian warming is attributed to albedo. http://www.space.com/aol/070404_gw_mars.html
he other supposed warming is fiction, Pluto has a vastly irregular orbit and is moving away from the sun rapidly at the moment and has NEVER been visited by spacecraft. Jupiter has fusion reactions in its core and is a small star in reality.
Interestingly neither the moon or venus have been warming at all.
>
"The great global warming swindle" is a joke. It was made by Martin Durkin, he's an ex-communist who has an axe to grind against the enviromental movement. He had researchers quit on previous documentaries saying things like "the published research had been construed to give an impression that's not the case." That was on a documentary about breast implants. (he argued they were good for you). If you want to know more I suggest you wikipedia search martin durkin.
>
The most killer thing is that he uses simply wrong facts like that volcanoes make more CO2 than humans. The US geological survey claim "volcanism produces about 3% of the total CO2 with the other 97% coming from man-made sources". So did he lie or just not bother to check the facts?
>
The sun is to blame eh? Well thats simply not true. The amount of sunlight reaching earth (the surface) has been measured and is shown to be decreasing (look up global dimming).
>
Most of the solar warming theories suggest that cosmic rays and the sun warm the upper atmosphere,
So why is the surface warming fastest?
>
Yeah a few have been fooled into reversing thier positions but notably the US government has done the exact opposite. They made that admission at gleneagles in 2005. (Also where is the money they promised for the poor, only the UK and Japan have delivered).
>
Also check out this
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_controversy#The_evolving_position_of_some_skeptics

To abc123cba
We have posted links that refute EVERYTHING you have said. The biggest problem with the theory of AGW is this:

The CO2 levels in the atmosphere increase AFTER the temperature increases. That pretty much kills the AGW theory.

That doesn't even take into account the fact that the so called scientists for the UN panel were caught redhanded in fraud and lies.

GLOBAL WARMING YES, MAN-MADE NO
Yes, there's plenty of evidence for global warming. There is not one scientifically established fact that global warming is man-made, either in whole or in part.

The case for man-made global warming is entirely circumstantial and the facts actually point to other suspects, such as nature, and not humanity as the culprit.

The Sun is a great influence on our weather, as are volcanoes, ocean currents, etc., etc. The sunspot cycle is probably responsible for causing most of the warming the earth has experienced over the last few decades.

And Vic...
The vast majority of heat reflected by the earth's surface is trapped in the first 30 to 60 feet of the atmosphere--by water vapor. The contribution by CO2 is down in the noise.
Did anyone notice that the Global Warming nuts came out of the woodwork shortly after the fall of the wall? As Michael Crichton said in "State of Fear", we seem to need something to be afraid of. Need something to fear? Try jihadism.

To Marinedad
But if the did that they would have to agree with the evil Bushhitler.

Can Anyone Answer This?
How can Liberals claim everything they do is because they care about "The Children", when they have ABORTED 40+ MILLION OF THEM!

Interesting Plot of

To: abc123
Okay, then, how about you write to the scientific journal "Climate Dynamics". Ask for a preprint of an article that's in press, lead author one James Hansen of the Goddard Institute of Space Sciences. He, and 46 co-authors, give a review of their latest and greatest computer model, the GISS-E model.

Section 2.4 discusses the principal deficiencies of the model. Now, I'm a physicist, the dense technical language of this paper is my bread and butter, but many readers here aren't scientists. So, I'm going to take the liberty of excerpting certain statements from the first paragraph of section 2.4. I will intersperse my own interpretations with these quotes.

"Model shortcomings include ~25% regional deficiency of summer stratus cloud cover off the west coast of the continents with
resulting excessive absorption of solar radiation by as much as 50 W/m2."

Excess absorption by a whopping 50 W/m2 in certain areas? FYI, even after doubling the CO2 concentration, the total amount of excess that CO2 causes is just 4 W/m2! In other words, over a notable chunk of the globe, this newest model overstates the amount of warming by a factor of more than 12!


"~25% deficiency in summer cloud cover in the western United States and
central Asia with a corresponding ~5°C excessive summer warmth in these regions."

Central Asia covers a lot of ground. Maybe that excess summer warmth contributes a bit to the global average temperature rise? But Hansen et al. admit that for half the year, their model is wrong by an amount roughly 2 times the amount of warming in the entire next century.

" ... the model produces only six sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in 50 years, compared with about
one every two years in the real world."

Doesn't sound like they've got that stratosphere nailed in their model to me.

Now, in spite of all these serious deficiencies, Hansen et al. then turn around and comment that the agreement of the model with OTHER models gives them confidence. " ... modelE with the Russell ocean, fares at least as
well as the typical global model."

In other words, all the models are wrong in the same way! Comparison with reality is poor in several areas--but because all the models are wrong in the same way, as far as Hansen et al. are concerned, everything is wonderful.

This is science turned inside out. The models agree with each other, whoopee! Who cares about their agreement with that pesky real world!

Of the 21 scientists who participated in the widely-quoted "policy summary" released early this year, 20 were climate modelers. This is what the climate modelers such as Hansen say when talking to each other, admitting the limitations of their computer simulations. It's obviously a different story in press conferences, where it's always: "The science is settled."

Sure doesn't sound settled to me. But then, what do I know--I'm just a lousy physicist, not an exalted climate modeler.

To ZB2
I thought about this subject when I was checking tropical storm Andrea off the coast of SC last week. The predictive map from the models has a statement on it that said the following "Computre models subject to large errors. Do not use for planning purposes". This was only a 5 day prediction for the direction of the storm.

I saved a snapshot of that page but there is no way to get it in here.

Vic
Some food for thought regarding a Global Climate Change exchange we had here the other day.

http://www.utilitiesproject.com/documents.asp?grID=111&d_ID=4296

Reminds me of a quote frequently attributed to the late Senator Everett McKinley Dirksen (R, IL), revised here to fit the circumstances: "A trillion here, a trillion there; pretty soon, you're talking about real money.

Vic
Sorry. This link will access the full paper.

http://www.utilitiesproject.com/documents.asp?d_id=4296

To BrianR
That link wants me to sign up and get a PW? Is it supposed to go to the paper?

To firetoice
That last post was supposed to be for you.

Vic
It does for me.

Try signing up - it's free. Also, there is a lot of other interesting stuff there.

To firetoice
It wants a lot of information about my old company so I will pass.
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