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Monday, April 30, 2007
Paul Greenberg :: Townhall.com Columnist
The sound of one man weeping
by Paul Greenberg
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When the news came that the stock market had broken 13,000 Wednesday afternoon, I thought I heard the strangest sound in the background: quiet sobbing.

Of course! That had to be the New York Times' man in the economy and all-around pundit, Paul Krugman, crying in his beer. Though, given today's economy, he's probably drinking the best single-malt Scotch on the market.

But nothing seems to depress this expert like good news. Here the stock market is at an all-time high, the unemployment rate keeps dropping below low, but our expert keeps warning that The End Is Near. It's kind of funny in an unintended way. Think Woody Allen doing Shakespearean tragedy.

For just a moment there, when the stock market had its big hiccup so long ago-back in February, which now seems the Middle Ages-Dr. Krugman could scarcely contain his glee. He was Mr. Happiness himself. For at last his hour had come. Hot dawg! All those sinners would see the error of their ways now!

Exulting in the coming woe, our own academic Eeyore dashed off a fantasy dated February 27, 2008, in which he looked back-with ill-concealed satisfaction-at the dire fate he'd long foreseen for the American economy.

His cheery vision began: "The great market meltdown of 2007 began exactly a year ago, with a 9 percent fall in the Shanghai market, followed by a 416-point slide in the Dow."

That classic of a column foresaw the disaster that would surely be under way by now, like a gathering economic tsunami: "For a couple of months after the shock of Feb. 27, markets oscillated wildly, soaring on bits of apparent good news, then plunging again. But by late spring, it was clear that the self-reinforcing cycle of complacency had given way to a self-reinforcing cycle of anxiety."

Translation: Come on, Catastrophe! After all, this is a guy who lives for a repeat of 1929.

Not till the end of that column did Dr. Krugman hedge his doomsday scenario in case the American economy rebounded. And rebound it did. Fast but not furious. Just steadily. Prosperity has become almost routine. And poor Paul Krugman has lapsed into a resentful funk. He seems to have fallen silent on the subject of The Great Meltdown of 2007-much like a professional mourner who keeps waiting for the big funeral that never comes.

Not since Stan Laurel has sadness been so funny. Here our expert-he teaches economics somewhere in the Ivy League, doesn't he?-was fully expecting to be followed by a whole herd of bears into the biggest sell-off since the dot-com bubble burst, and what happened was Š pretty much nothing. Just another undramatic recovery. Dang.

It's not just Dr. Krugman's recurrent prophecies of another Crash that impress-he's been making those since memories runneth not to the contrary-but the uncanny effect he has on the market. He no sooner predicts disaster than the dawgone thing goes sky-high again, setting new records. Like the hoofer who's told to play Sophocles but can't stop breaking into musical comedy.

Surely another dip in the market is bound to come-so long as there's a business cycle-but Paul Krugman's magic touch keeps delaying it, turning every down into still another unstoppable up.

It's positively unnatural. The man is a kind of walking, talking, and, best of all, writing version of Al Capp's poor little jinx of a character, Joe Btfsplk-only in reverse, leaving not disaster but good fortune wherever he goes. The New York Stock Exchange ought to put him on retainer.

If only Paul Krugman would just keep writing about the coming End of It All, prosperity might be assured.

Then there's the language in which Dr. Krugman sends out his jeremiads. It is, in a word, hilarious-if unintentionally so. He's got to be the country's leading practitioner of purple-as-a-bad-bruise prose. Mrs. Malaprop might have spoken like that if only she'd had a Ph.D. in the dismal science.

I've saved my favorite Krugmanism of all time for those occasions when I may need a bit of cheering up:

"And when the chickens that didn't hatch come home to roost, we will rue the days when, misled by sloppy accounting and rosy scenarios, we gave away the national nest egg."

As prose, that's a lot of poultry. Try to visualize those chickens that didn't hatch coming home to roost, if you can stop laughing. Why, that's almost Zen, like the sound of one hand clapping. His reference to the national nest egg is just lagniappe.

I can't wait to read the professor's next jeremiad about the imminent Crash; the economy can always use a little help, and so can the nation's sense of humor.

Cheers.

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Good news?
BAH! It's ALL Bush's fault! Damn him anyway! What a fiend! Low unemployment, an historical low, and a booming economy. BAD BAD BAD BUSH!!

If it weren't for bad news
he'd have no news at all. GloomQ Despair! and Agony! Oh Me!

Who reads the NYT except for comic relief anyway?

Bad news to come
Krugman's analysis (or lack of) aside we are headed for a meltdown if entitlements aren't brought under control. The IOUs that the politicians have written to buy votes will eventually comedue.

Please explain
What is it in the economy that justifies a 13000 Dow? Must be the weak dollar. Inflation? Gee that helps averageman. Or maybe it is the trade deficits, or the loss of GM, Ford and Chrysler. No doubt someone is cleaning up. Who?

could be
the companies are showing a profit and investors are willing to buy. The weak dollar should help the US exports and lower the so-called trade deficit. AS well as spur some foriegn money to come into teh US, however if you were to look at foriegn investment in the US since 2002 the weaker dollar has hurt their investment. The currency markets have somewhat bought into the economy is falling nonsense and that is one reason the dollar is weaker.

Hey!!!
I know why Paul Krugman sings...he's the cousin of Harry "The defeatist" Reid! Bet you guys didn't know that,did ya...The cat's outta the bag now!!!

News media idiots
It wasn't very long ago that the DOW had never cracked 2,000, not long before that and it had never cracked 1,000.
On the 6 O'clock news some talking head will breathlessly proclaim the DOW is down 6 points or u 6 points. Maybe when te DOW was at 500, 6 points was a big deal, today even 100 points out of 13,000 is little to get excited about.

But bad news is the cuuency of the media and it feeds the wishes of the "stupid, evil, hate Bush" crowd. President Bush, too stupid to speak well, stole the election twice and makes the hurricanes go where he wants for political gain. Bush is at once, too stupid to be president and able to beat the Democrats at almost every turn.

No wonder some people are crying in the beer.

Good news, bad news
Did you hear the economic growth number just released?

You want to see the market REALLY take
off? Privitize Social Security.
When those bucks start flowing into investments and stocks instead of going down the crapper in gov't run pork barrel projects, you'll see a 20K Dow in no time and a lot more Republicans too.

GDP
slowed a little it was however not a contraction, the economy goes in cycles, the contraction of existing home sales had a lot to do with the lower GDP #'s.

LiberalGoodman
Last quater growth was at 2.7% - the ibg new wasn't a fall in GDP, but the continued profits, or in many cases unexpected profits of many corporations. Delta, Sony, Google, Maytag, GE all saw very healthy profit margins.

Corporations are no longer tied to a single nation; for those people who either own stock, or have thier pensions, IRAs, and 401ks tied to these multinational corporations, thier assests continue to climb.

This is why the trade deficit isn't as big a thing as it used to be. US owned assests are still the best long term investments. The nations we have the biggest deficits with are also the nations who pour the most cash into our corporations. Tell me, in the long run who wins out: China or the US. China currently depends on US consumers for about 75% of thier GDP. Thier investments in manufacturing are commoditzing those areas of the market. So what if they employ 25 million CNC machinists. CNC workers here make what a cook at McDonalds makes. For all of its double digit growth, China's net assests are only 10% of the US. Our economy is diversified to such a degree that a hit one sector (high tech, housing) will not bring the entire house down like it did in Japan in 1992.

Liberal Media
If a Republican were shooting craps, Krugman and the liberal media would be betting the "No Pass" line. At least there, they would be getting the mean looks and derision they so rightfully deserve from the crowd!

Eeyore?
I've met Eeyore, and Krugman's no Eeyore!

How dare you insult the good name of this helpless donkey, this faithful friend of Pooh and Piglet!

Have you no shame? No heart?

And you've confused a donkey with a jackass, to boot!

Barry

Did You Read Krugman's Article?
It's on the opinion page of today's New York Times 4-3-07. Why not read it for youself? I'm no economist but I read English fairly well. The article says that the profit of today's boom economy is going into the pockets of top executives and a few lucky stockholders rather than being invested in the business. That does seem to fit with what we read every day in the papers---last week a departing CEO got a goodbye package of $148 million, and Corporate America is still crying poor when it comes to re-tooling for carbon emissions control more favorable to the environment or to maintaining a safe workplace.

Here's an item: last week I had a two-hour meeting with my broker and financial advisor. He is a staunch Republican and extremely conservative regarding both politics and money. He used the word "nasty" about eight times, as in warning me not to be fooled by the boom because "down the road, it's going to get really nasty". He didn't sing even one bar of "Happy Times are Here Again".

few lucky stockholders
think most pension,retirement,401k. One thing that is happening and increasing share prices is that a lot of companies are buying their shares back. which increases shareholder value. Any market can be Nasty if you are invested on the wrong side of the market. It sounds like you are hoping for another finacial collapse a'la 1929. Keep in mind your broker is in addition to being an advisior,a salesman.

Oh, Everything's Just Swell
Wow, everyone's so down on Krugman for even suggesting that we don't have a fabulous economy. I don't know about his specific analysis, but we certainly do have an economy built on sand, and that sand will surely wash away. We are a debtor nation, and we can only hope to remain in the good graces of our creditors (e.g., to the Chinese). We have no policy to make us energy independent, which makes us vulnerable to whim of energy-rich countries who are not predisposed to like us (witness 1973). Our insane trade policy means that more and more if our manufacturing infrastructure and more and more family-wage jobs disappear as companies shift their operations overseas. We end up selling things (especially houses) to each other, while we import cheap plastic junk from Asia. At some point, there won't be enough people left in this country with sufficient disposable income---or borrowing capacity---to buy enough "stuff" to keep the house of cards from collapsing.

Krugman
If a Democrat was in the White House, Krugman would be singing hosannas about the economy.

DavidMac
I think many in the media are afraid to state the actual health of the economy,because it might make Bush look good. The bad part is that if enough people parrot the same gloom the market will eventually follow. it is a self fulfilling prophecy.

Krugmann
Notice how he used the 9 percent for the Shanghai market but 416 points for the US market? Wonder why? Oh, the 416 points is less than a 4 percent drop.

The man's writing is so misleading.

trade deficits
The United States had trade surpluses all but two years of the Great Depression. Trade deficits mean that other countries around the world have economies that can buy our products.

Paul, Paul...
You give me such a philosophical hard-on...with your veiled reference to Measure for Measure...the "tsunami" image is indelible.

What I find most edible about your workmanship, however, is your innate propensity to yield to the verbal equivalent of "kicking the chair"

dow 13000
The measuring stick, the real value of the dollar is down, and falling fast. Read "Dying of Money", by Jens O. Parsson about the great German inflation of 1914-1923, and the American inflation today.

Economy
Think about the Dow and what is in it or the S&P. A lot of companies making millions overseas. The stock market is not a good picture of our economy. Middle class is a good measure of our economy. Not the unemployment rate, not the median income rate, but middle class. In a healthy economy the middle class are rising. That is the case with Asia where the middle class is growing rapidly while ours is splitting. Some are moving up and many are moving down but, we are losing our middle-class because so many jobs in that sector were tied to manufacturing. We have lost 3.2 million manufacturing jobs since 1998, 2.9 since 2001.

We have rapidly rising debt, rapidly rising entitlement spending, rapidly rising trade deficits, rapidly rising interest payments, and at the same time and declining dollar driving up prices. Food isn't in inflation and it has been running at a 14% increase rate. Oil? Well you know what you're paying at the pump.

Economic indicators are all in decline so we focus on the DOW but the DOW may be more a reflection of the world economy, which is booming, than ours. This is not an attack on Bush either. Congress is who is the leading power broker in all of this. The tax cuts helped stimulate the economy. Whether they were responsible for the increase in tax revenues doesn't matter. Tax revenues aren't keeping up, let alone reducing deficit spending.

Chairman Bernanke says we are headed for 100% debt to GDP. The GAO says we are on an "unsustainable" course and that each worker owes $400,000 of the the $50 trillion unfunded liability we face. The Social Security Admin is requesting a 16% increase in S.S. taxes and a 121% increase in Medicare/Medicaid revenues. So, where is the "good economy." If it was good, deficit spending would be going down, debt down, entitlement revenues catching up, savings rising, manufacturing employment growing, interest payments decreasing.

Where is the "good economy." What is "good" is that the tax cuts kept it from being worse than it is. Congress can't reform the tax code, the entitlements, or the budget because they will lose elections if they do. The majority of voters depend on the government.

quote:
"On April 16, the Christian Science Monitor published the results of a study showing that a majority of Americans - 52.6%, to be exact - now receive 'significant income' from government programs. At the same time, the percentage of the working population 'not employed in a government reliant job' has fallen below 29%.

"Now consider the implications. Fewer than 30% of workers are airmailing large portions of their paychecks to more than half of the rest of the population. And as the Baby Boomers retire, the latter number is inexorably headed up; it's projected to close in on 60% by 2030."
Source: The Daily Reckoning email alert
==============================

What looks "good" doesn't necessarily mean it is good. An egg can look good on the outside but crack it open and you may find it isn't good. That doesn't mean some "crash" is imminent. It does mean we have to get our house in order soon. As Chairman Bernanke also testified, "we are in the calm before the storm."

The Loss of GM, Ford, and Chrysler
Their managers could not find their asses with both hands and a map.

Having those companies go under would be a GOOD thing for the economy.

ch47 jockey
I agree with you. It's all part of the anti-American propaganda effort. The jist is that the Soc-Dems need to present a disparaging view REGARDLESS of the truth.

I'm with Greenberg!!
Betting against Krugman is a sure winner. He, of all people shouldn't have BDS, but he does. For real analysis of the economy, you should listen to the profesors of George Mason University, Waklter Williams, and Donald Boudreaux. Boudreaux has a great blog at Cafe Hayek (http://cafehayek.typepad.com/)

I'm with Greenberg
$%^& fingers Walter Williams :-(

He'll be right someday
If Krugman continues to predict a market crash every month, someday he will probably be right -- if he lives that long.

Courage of His Convictions?
Paul should show how he has shorted the world markets (borrowed & sold shares he expects to buy back at a lower price) since 2003 because Bush is an idiot, and now doesn't need to teach or write. He won't? He can't? He is a 'wage-slave'? He let his politics get the best of him?

Or didn't he eat his own cooking, and now owes a deep apology to those he misled and whose retirement he postponed?

Reality is subjective
Yes the Dow Jones broke 13,000....in American dollars. But if you look at the DJIA value in Euros it peaked in 2003 at just over 10,000 and is currently at about 8,500. Don't mean to point out this cloud in front of the silver lining for any reason other than FYI.
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