If you're like me, you probably think you've got it pretty much figured out -- the stuff that matters, anyway. But just in case, I hope you'll take a moment and read on.
In June 2007, and again this time last year, I was shoved aboard a plane and dragged around the globe. The idea was to test my impressions of the world, its markets, and most importantly, its people. What I found made me a better investor and a better person.
Myth No. 1: Two wheels good … For reasons you will soon find apparent, I'd like to focus today on China, a sprawling mini-continent home to more than 1.3 billion people. If you are like I was, you're probably thinking "Man, that's a lot of Wizard of Oz-era Schwinns and pointy straw hats." And you'd be right -- 10 years ago.
Now it's a lot of cars. Don't misunderstand: Even I knew that Shanghai and Beijing, with their five-loop beltways, would be a Jiffy Lube paradise. But if, for you, China's "smaller" second- and even third-tier cities conjured images of Chinatown circa the 1906 earthquake, you're in for a shock (more on the tier-two story in a moment).
In fact, in light of recent events, you can't help but wonder how much better off General Motors or Ford (NYSE: F) would be if they'd gotten hold of a bigger piece of this market. It physically pained me to discover that, beyond the occasional Ford Focus and Toyota Camry, Volkswagen has all but cornered China's second- and third-tier markets. Or so it appeared to one American on the street in Shenzhen.
Myth No. 2: Small towns are small Again, I knew Shanghai and Beijing would be big. What I didn't know is that the "smaller" tier-two cities are big, too. That is, until I had the pleasure of visiting five of the 20 or so Chinese towns bigger than Chicago. All are vibrant, modern cities -- no doubt twice the size they were this time last year -- my favorite being Xi'an, with its uncanny city wall.
Xi'an is also where I put to rest myths No. 3 and No. 4. The first seems a little silly in retrospect. I mean, maybe it's not completely insane to presume that a city home to IBM (NYSE: IBM), Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), and Applied Materials (Nasdaq: AMAT), among other Western technology giants, would speak a little English -- the so-called international language of science. But it's not true, either.
In fact, despite an infatuation with things Western, I doubt China's burgeoning middle class ever will adopt English as a second or "business" language. I don't think they'll need to. Just as it's clear that China's top businesses won't always rely on exports and massive trade surpluses -- for instance, the three we'll discuss just below.
And now for a delicate point … I mention my fourth observation cautiously -- having seen a tiny part of the country and knowing full well I may have this one wrong. But perhaps my biggest surprise was the apparent loyalty and buoyancy of the workers I encountered. I'm not sure what I expected, but these were not the ground-down, discouraged, and exploited laborers I'd read and heard so much about.
True, I visited a relative handful of Chinese companies. And some -- for example, travel agent Ctrip.com (Nasdaq: CTRP) -- are admittedly white-collar businesses. China Green Agriculture (NYSE: CGA), whose massive greenhouses we toured, is a relatively hands-on agri-science business, however. And our visit to China Fire & Security (Nasdaq: CFSG) included a tour of a full-scale factory, albeit a high-tech one.
To be sure, the living arrangements seem at odds with what we know here in the United States. Often, the workers, mostly young men and women from the countryside, live in dormitories on campus. But my impression is that they were happily employed, even happy to be there. They certainly are friendly -- and sure love their basketball. Continued... |