And because it clearly leans Democrat, a win by Ogonowski would attract a lot of attention. With few other data points to look at, analysts would have to consider the possibility that a backlash has begun against the Democratic Congress -- and that Republican candidates could win in marginal -- even Democrat-leaning seats. That would improve recruiting and fundraising. In that sense, a win by Ogonowski would have an enormous effect.
Recall that before the GOP sweep in 1994, they won several elections in 1993 that indicated a backlash was developing against Bill Clinton. Christie Whitman won in New Jersey; Rudy Giuliani in New York; Ron Lucas won in Kentucky (in early 1994). These races led analysts to expect that 1994 was going to be a Republican year. That drove recruiting and fundraising, and led to what I consider a virtuous cycle.
Christie Whitman and Rudy Giuliani were not textbook conservatives when they won in 1993, but their victories sent a strong message that America was ready for change. Similarly, a strong showing by Ogonowski would signal that the GOP is alive and well heading into 2008, and that we can actually win in blue and swing districts with a change message.
Over the last few years, the netroots has poured a tremendous amount of time and attention into winning in red districts with 80%+ party line Democrats. They got their sea legs with two special election victories in 2004 (Stephanie Herseth in South Dakota and Ben Chandler in Kentucky). Last week, I wrote about the GOP's virtual surrender of Virginia to the Democrats. The lesson is clear: If they are going to fight in red states, we must fight in blue states. Why? Because you can only win by going on offense.
The Ogonowski race in MA-5 is a great chance for the GOP to go on offense again. It could signal a turning point for the party. And if things don't quite work out this time, there's always a certain lanky, French-speaking Senator who's up next year and sports a dismal 37% re-elect number.
Let's not let this opportunity pass by. Please do what you can. |