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Saturday, September 15, 2007
Patrick Ruffini :: Townhall.com Columnist
Yes Virginia, There is a Conservative
by Patrick Ruffini
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Will the Dems' health care Christmas Present to America be an improvement or detriment to our health care system?


Imagine a patient who upon hearing a potentially life-threatening diagnosis embarks on a spate of binge drinking and chain smoking. That should give you a pretty good idea of what it was like to be a Virginia Republican this past week.

Following his stunning 11th hour decision not to run for President last year, it was pretty clear that former Democratic governor Mark Warner would try to re-enter politics at some lower, more manageable level. His announcement this week that he would try for the Senate in 2008 came as no surprise following the retirement of the namesake he ran against as "Mark Not John" in '96.

Instead of marshaling a real effort to find a candidate who could go toe-to-toe with the popular Warner, Virginia's GOP has so far opted to go down the merry path to obliteration in '08.

Running on the Republican side is Tom Davis, the tactically shrewd Fairfax County Congressman who chaired the NRCC and is patron to Northern Virginia's dwindling GOP machine. He'll face former governor Jim Gilmore, whose 11th place Presidential candidacy cum publicity stunt generated precisely one item worth a mild chuckle: popularizing the term "Rudy McRomney."

A Rasmussen poll out this week shows just how steep a climb both Davis and Gilmore face. If the election were held today, the relatively moderate Davis would lose to Warner 57 to 30 percent. Gilmore, the more conservative of the two, gets crushed by a slightly less daunting 54 to 34 percent, but has little room to grow given that he is widely known as a former governor.

Rather than staying on the sidelines to wait for a more viable choice, Virginia Republicans are rushing into the fray of the Davis-Gilmore food fight. Gilmore opened by announcing the endorsement of Commonwealth's Republican national committeeman and committeewoman. Davis on Wednesday countered with 2005 gubernational nominee Jerry Kilgore and a list of eight GOP Congressional district chairs supporting his candidacy.

This is a fight unguided by principle or purpose. If you support Tom Davis, it's likely because you're a member of or indebted to The Tom Davis Machine. If you support Jim Gilmore, it's probably because you can't stand Tom Davis. Defeating (or severely bruising) Mark Warner or rebuilding the Republican Party in Virginia doesn't even factor into the equation. It's all about settling scores within the party, and who can be the last to breathe fresh air as the Titanic swirls to the ocean bed.

Virginia can do better.

For Republicans dispirited by the field so far, there is hope -- and a choice. A week ago, I wrote about Eric Cantor, a conservative hero in the House and member of the GOP leadership, as the best choice for the Senate. The call for Cantor was echoed by National Review and picked up by well-connected Virginia and Beltway blogs from Mason Conservative to the Influence Peddler.

If he made the race, Cantor would have distinct operational and political advantages that would bode well for him in a nominating convention. He is known as one of the most prolific fundraisers in the House. He hails from the pivotal Richmond suburbs, which means he can talk to both the southside and Northern Virginia suburbanites. He's a rising star in his early 40s, after just three terms in the House. He is young and fresh just like Mark Warner once was. He's unapologetically conservative, scoring 82 percent on the Club for Growth's RePORK Card, the highest of the House GOP leadership. And he gives as good as he gets, making him an exceptionally tough foe for Warner.

Mark Warner's camp agrees. They polled a Cantor vs. Warner matchup, and hinted that he would be a stronger opponent than either Davis or Gilmore despite what has to be his lower name recognition statewide. But a Warner adviser adds this, "But Cantor isn't getting into this race." Ri-iight. You don't spend hard dollars polling a prospective opponent you don't fear and won't run.

The Warner camp's attempts to talk Cantor out of the race notwithstanding, a Senate run would probably fall outside of Cantor's expected career trajectory. Cantor's colleagues widely expect he'll lead the House some day. When and if he does, it would be the best hope in a generation for unalloyed conservative leadership at the helm of that body. So this is understandably a difficult decision: risk the relatively safe path of leadership in the House, or embark on a riskier path by holding a Senate seat that should rightfully be ours, possibly setting up a future run for governor or a spot on a national ticket?

The lesson that should transcend Eric Cantor is that conservatives must think boldly about recruiting the right candidates to run for office in the first place. We also need to think about why the Democrats clean our clocks when it comes to electing Senators in red states, when the natural conservative majority in the Senate is 60 -- if all we do is win in the states President Bush carried in the dead-heat 2000 election.

It starts by not limiting ourselves to an existing menu of options concocted by the political establishment. In every race we need to identify the ideal candidates both in and out of politics, years in advance if necessary, and work tirelessly to get them to run. It's easier to get elected officials to vote conservative if they're one of us to begin with. Some of conservatism's brightest young leaders came to politics not through working their way up patiently through the ranks, but by making a mark on issues. Think of governor-in-waiting Bobby Jindal running Louisiana's health system at the age of 25, or anti-earmark hero Jeff Flake leading the conservative Goldwater Institute in Arizona.

Rampant careerism and playing it safe gives you Tom Davis and Jim Gilmore, undoubtedly fine men whose brand of politics was desperately needed at one point in their careers, but whose candidacies now serve as little more than empty vessels for party factionalism. The powers that be in Virginia would be wise to stay on the sidelines, and bide their time for a candidate who can begin the process of rebuilding a shaken Republican brand in the Commonwealth.

The criteria for supporting candidates is not: Who can help me even up the score with a fellow Republican? If this is about winning back the majority and not local fiefdoms, it must be: Why not the best?

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About The Author

Patrick Ruffini is an online strategist dedicated to helping Republicans and conservatives achieve dominance in a networked era. He has seen American politics from every vantagepoint — as a campaign staffer, activist, and analyst.

Dang it!
What in the heck is happening to virginia? I was shocked when they elected that egotistical loud mouth Webb. Virginia is on my list of places to move when I dump Kalifornia. That is if they don't lose it.


Virginia Patriot: In case you read this I fully expect to keep me informed. I am more than willing to donate out of state to true conservatives.

go figure
america is being dummed down

Urban Politics
Virginia has been the victim of it's own success. As population density increases within the state the more liberal urban areas gain political clout. People move here because policy within the state favors economic expansion and then start voting for the very policies that ruined the place they left.

The sad fact is that a strong conservative message that is acted on when the politician gains office is a winning combination both at the state level and nationally. The GOP has to do two things to be successful. It has to articulate the message that less government interference in our daily lives is the path to greater prosperity for all and then act on that philosopy when it gains power.

Republicans have nurtured candidates that talk a soft, semi conservative line thinking that is what it takes to get them elected and when they have been elected have acted like Democrats in passing laws and spending money. The public has been given the choice between one group that wants to rush to the Socialist model of societal structure and another group that wants to saunter to the same place.

How fast you get to a place doesn't matter, it's where you are going that is important. Both parties are headed in the same direction. At least the Democrats are honest about where they want to go.


Lolo
What's been happening in Virginia is that the Republicans haven't had much of a platform outside of tax cuts. Gilmore went around saying "tax cuts tax cuts" like a broken record. He cut taxes. He did little else. People perceive that Mark Warner spent his administration cleaning up after Gilmore.

NOW they have illegal immigration as a demon which so far seems to be an effective. They can terrify the public about their dangerous neighbors to get elected. It will work.

Of course traffic congestion is getting worse and worse, development continues unchecked and without central planning and SAT scores are declining.

Trulib
I resided in Springfield Va, for 10 years while working at NRL in Anacostia. I like VA very much, and had great respect for most of the state/local politics. I left in 1990. Your point about the carpet baggers changing things explains a lot of what seems to be different from when i was there. One thing i did do right, i kept my house in Springfield. They say real estate in DC is like sex. When its good, its wonderful and when its bad, its still pretty good.

Savage99
Real estate has taken a beating lately but you were smart in holding on to that house. When things start to recover you can move back,sell the Springfield house and I will build you a nice custom in Great Falls.

Trulib
Kind offer. My daughter lives in Norfolk. If she and my grandchildren should move to the DC area, you could well have a customer. Lots of pretty areas around Great Falls.

Virginia Republicans Couldn't Do Worse
I am retired in North Carolina from years of living and suffering with the Republicians in Virginia. Not sure I still have the right to critize Virginia Republicans, but I will anyway! Selecting Gilmore and Davis is the worse thing the Virginia Republicans could have done! I suffered too long with these two! IMHO!

Eli Pariser of MoveOn.Org
Eli Pariser of MoveOn.Org is not too young to be a Hitler, Lenin, Stalin or maybe even worse. The look in this young man’s eyes is frightful and death to opposition is not out of the question. An elderly professor of mine fled Austria after the Anschluss lectured to us mush headed freshmen "Politics is not beanbag!" George Soros is an Alexanderite; ergo, a male bred from boyhood by the myth and folklore of Alexander the Great. This is common among Russian - Greek - Albanian and much of mountain Muslim cultures. Remember the story in order to win the fair hand of Roxanne it was necessary to undo the Gordian Knot and myth has it Alexander smashed it with the sharpness of his blade. To a George Soros type thinker the Constitution of the United States is their Gordian Knot and they will stop at nothing to smash it and make the fortunes from chaos their own. I confess being of speculative Cassandra thinking on this matter but I am the son of this wonderful country and I want my children and their grandchildren to live with the freedoms sacrificed for and given to me. Publicly, Eli Pariser is a mystery without portfolio, but he has a resume' which needs to be better explored. Things important are; was he the product of a Marxist upbringing, did he rebel from a structured institutional - religious existence, did he attend and graduate from university, where did he attend and what was his area of course study, was he the prodigy of a professor or academic department, does he have employment on his post-collegiate resume' and was it in private or not for profit endeavors. The seeds of this man’s thoughts are unknown and that situation must end so I ask those of you with greater access to pertinent information to make that information available before this organization gathers greater strength. MoveOn.Org could well become our domestic Al Quida.


Go Pat Go! Go Pat Go!
Go Pat Go! Go Pat Go!

Why not a real conservative?

RS-That’s right! According to The Hill, Patrick Buchanan is being discussed as a possible candidate for Senate in Virginia. Unlike the other two likely candidates, Rep. Tom Davis and former Gov. Jim Gilmore, Buchanan is both an outspoken conservative and an aggressive campaigner. His candidacy would be a welcome addition to the Republican field.

Buchanan distinguished himself as a strong campaigner when he took the New Hampshire primary from front-runner Bob Dole in 1996. Sadly, he was swamped in fundraising and Republicans nominated a squish who blindly walked to an inevitable defeat in November of that year. Buchanan is better known, though, for his culture war speech in 1992. Contrary to popular myth, Bush’s numbers rose after the speech and waned only later in the campaign. His charisma and energy could make him a force to be reckoned with in what will likely be a competitive Senate primary.

READ MORE

http://controlcongress.com/uncategorized/go-pat-go-go-pat-go


HMMMM...Rep Flake of AZ
Isn't Rep Flake even now cosponsoring the latest piecemeal Scamnesty legislation in the US House? Not GOP leadership material by my thinking!
The problem the GOP now has is that, unlike the lockstep Stalinist Liberals in the Democrat Party, it doesn't do enough to theaten its potential candidates down to the most viable for a given race...thus avoiding nasty and politically weakening primary fights. Heck, the Democrats even threaten and legally challenge to exclusion any third party candidates that would harm their prospects in any given race!

Thanks for the info everyone
I really appreciate you guys keeping me updated. Sounds like in Virginia, as always, when conservatives are true conservatives they win. Also from what I can tell, looking from the outside in, Virginia is the poster child representation of this country...divided down the middle or cut in two.

Of course, if I am wrong, I am sure you guys will enlighten me.

for Trulib
Trulib writes: "Virginia has been the victim of it's own success. As population density increases within the state the more liberal urban areas gain political clout."

No, there's another issue too, one that conservatives just refuse to accept: Changing demographics.

Compared with 1980, the four biggest Virginia suburban districts are becoming more diverse. They're not lily-white suburbs anymore. You have minorities moving to the suburbs in increasing numbers. Also, more and more households in the suburbs are NOT traditional hetero married couples: Single career women, many of whom had children out of wedlock or got divorced later, are a larger share of the suburban electorate.

And all these cohorts tend to vote Democrat.

20 years ago, Allen's "macaca" remark would have been harmless. Today, it alienated enough of these voters to cause him to lose.

The GOP simply steadfastly refuses to accept how the electorate of 2008 differs from the electorate of 1980: More minorities (especially lots more Hispanics), more single women, more single moms, have moved into areas that used to be staunchly Republican. They won't believe it till the 2010 Census and then the numbers will be clear for all to see.

The GOP clings to the idea of a hetero white Christian dominated America. By 2050, that will be gone forever--and the GOP along with it if it doesn't change.


for Lolo2
Lolo2 writes: "if I am wrong, I am sure you guys will enlighten me."

I just did. Read my post.

But in case you want the short form, here it is: The GOP loves to diss the fastest-growing voting blocs in America: Single moms and Hispanics.

The GOP clings to the socially conservative vision of the American voter as a happily married hetero white Christian couple who attend church regularly. But that percentage of the American electorate is declining. And the GOP has nothing to offer anybody else.

Better Choices Abound
The VA GOP is dominated by Bush lackeys. The last chairman came from the Bush White House and recently returned there. There are numerous GOP House members who are way more conservative than Davis, but he is who the party wants. Gilmore is a joke, no one wants him to run for anything. Thelma Drake, Virgil Goode, Frank Wolfe, Randy Forbes, and my Rep. Eric Cantor would all be better choices. But they all oppose amnesty and surrender to the illegals so the powers that be don't want them to run. The money and power players in the GOP in VA and nationally are beholden to the businesses employing illegal aliens and do not want the cheap labor express closed down. Where do you think Rudy got all that money?
If I have to choose between New York liberal R or D, I'll pass, as will many others. The GOP will have to be crushed to wake up to the fact that they are not representing the people. Unfortunately we don't have enough time to start a new party and save our country. The next President must be someone who will secure the border and enforce the law or we lose our country. If Hillary or Rudy wins, we will get another amnesty and you can kiss America goodbye.

Trulib
You hit it on the head. Too many northeast liberals coming down here and voting for what they were fleeing.

SteveL: 80-90% of the hispanics in VA are illegal aliens and therefore ineligible to vote, at least according to the law. I know from reading your posts, you favor surrendering to the demands of foreign nationals illegally in our country, but 75% of all Americans, Repub. or Dem. do not.

SteveL
I apologize if my post was not clear. I see the political realignment as a result of the changes brought about by urbanization. Typically denser areas of population vote more liberal for a variety of reasons including ethnic and family make up.

I do not believe the GOP should move as you say it needs to as the Democrats already occupy that territory. I see ideology as not being tied to religious or racial characteristics but to utilitarian realities. The utility of policies that promote family disintegration (speaking of single mothers demanding more support from the government) work against the best interests of society. Is the GOP to embrace such policies because they are popular?

Most Spanish speaking people moving into this area are strongly Christian and very family oriented. The wedge the Democrats will use is the conservatives desire to enforce the rules concerning immigration. As the Latino community aligns itself with the Democrats (and I agree with you , that is the trend) they will find themselves in the same situation as the Black community.

You speak of single mothers. Take a hard look at the demographics of out of wedlock births. In terms of poverty and social mobility it is devastating for Blacks and is rising for Latinos and Whites. The Democrats see this as their constituency. The nation suffers, individuals are shortchanged because of the lack of opportunities and the power of the Democrats increases as a result.

Fighting the policies that have brought this about is what the GOP should be doing. If Latinos and Blacks would wise up they would be joining the fight.

jnik
And a mistake on their part I agree. I know a problem the GOP faces is the willingness of too many to reflexively agree when calls of 'racism' are bandied about. When the main steam media is strongly liberal and more than willing to carry water for Black leaders such as the Rev. Jackson and the Rev. Sharpton how is someone to explain the message that relying on the government is damaging to a persons ability to get ahead?

A Republican that says welfare hurts Blacks and racial quotas hurts Blacks is automatically labeled a racist. Far too many are more than willing to go along with that because it means someone else is responsible for their condition. They can blame the fact they have no skills and no job on the rich Republicans who everybody knows just hates Black folks.

I recall watching Shepard Smith on Fox News as he stood on an overpass in New Orleans watching people wade up out of the Ninth Ward and stagger by. When a policeman came by Smith started yelling at the cop 'What are you going to do about all these people'? He should have been asking those people 'What are you doing here?'.

Those people had surrendered responsibility for their lives to a government that had no intention of taking care of them and had no Constitutional authority to do so anyway. The more people surrender that responsibility the worse off they will be. That should be the message of the GOP. The real question is does the GOP really believe that message.

Quick edit to the column's title!
You wrote, "Yes Virginia, There is a Conservative."

My edit would have read, "Yes, Virginia. There is a Conservative."

Eli Pariser Stuff
By CARL CAMPANILE ~ New York Post 9/15/07
September 15, 2007 -- MoveOn.org is the $28 million left-wing smash-mouth bully of politics.

That's how much its political action committee spent last year to help Democrats win control of Congress - with nearly all the funds coming from contributors funneling their donations to candidates through MoveOn.

The trash-talking group has come under fire for running an ad saying Gen. David Petraeus will "betray us" by not pushing an immediate military bailout of Iraq.

MoveOn was founded by Silicon Valley's Joan Blades and Wes Boyd in 1998 to fight President Bill Clinton's impeachment over the Monica Lewinsky scandal.

Within months, more than half a million people had signed its online petition opposing Clinton's ouster - proving that the Internet could be used to launch a grass-roots political campaign.

MoveOn, now with more than 3 million members, raised and spent more on political campaigns last year than all other PACs but one, the pro-choice Emily's List.

Then there's executive director Eli Pariser, a 2000 college grad hired after

9/11. Tax filings show he is paid a cool $114,171 a year.

"[MoveOn has] become an influential force," said Massie Ritsch, a spokesman for the Center for Responsive Politics, a Washington research nonprofit. ". . . It's a $28 million gorilla."

carl.campanile@nypost.com

eddred
Wow eddred with an IQ like yours perhaps you might make a good politician yet freak.

SteveL
Pure utter baloney about the GOP. I don't know where you got that info from but it is ridiculous. If you really think that than you need to look at the motives of 'why'. Start with entitlements.

Al Quida marches on Washington.
Al Quida marches on Washington.

Never too cold for smoking dope and oral sex under a tree!

Abbie – STEAL THIS BOOK – Hoffman is dead, Jerry – Yuppie Networking Program – is dead, Pig Pen and the Hog Farm are gone gone gone.

Most of the cast of Woodstock ended up in mental institutions, penal institutions, or prematurely dead.

Are these fakers having fun yet?

Term Limits
Safe "career choices" wouldn't be an issue if we had term limits... I get sick when I hear "career" in reference to elected officials... Two terms as El Presidente, two terms as Senator, and four terms as Representative, the OUT! The Seniority systems sucks big time.

the best still has to run
How does an individual citizen "recruit" someone to run? You have to have an organization to do that.

Also, what do you do when the candidates who say the best things do badly in the polls. I love the things Tancredo said in the last debate, not only on immigration, but also on the war on terror. I also liked Duncan Hunter. But both are doing terribly in the polls.

I hope Thompson will be clearer about his positions on these issues than he has been so far. He may well be equally acceptable. I need to hear more.

New York state is a total mess right now because the Republican party here stands for nothing and makes no effort to win either U.S. Senate seat. (I do like Peter King, but he seems to be pretty unique in actually standing for something positive.)

Rep. Peter King
A diamond in the rough of New York's Congressional delegation.
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