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Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Pat Buchanan :: Townhall.com Columnist
Who Started Cold War II?
by Pat Buchanan
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The American people should be eternally grateful to Old Europe for having spiked the Bush-McCain plan to bring Georgia into NATO.

Had Georgia been in NATO when Mikheil Saakashvili invaded South Ossetia, we would be eyeball to eyeball with Russia, facing war in the Caucasus, where Moscow's superiority is as great as U.S. superiority in the Caribbean during the Cuban missile crisis.

If the Russia-Georgia war proves nothing else, it is the insanity of giving erratic hotheads in volatile nations the power to drag the United States into war.

From Harry Truman to Ronald Reagan, as Defense Secretary Robert Gates said, U.S. presidents have sought to avoid shooting wars with Russia, even when the Bear was at its most beastly.

Truman refused to use force to break Stalin's Berlin blockade. Ike refused to intervene when the Butcher of Budapest drowned the Hungarian Revolution in blood. LBJ sat impotent as Leonid Brezhnev's tanks crushed the Prague Spring. Jimmy Carter's response to Brezhnev's invasion of Afghanistan was to boycott the Moscow Olympics. When Brezhnev ordered his Warsaw satraps to crush Solidarity and shot down a South Korean airliner killing scores of U.S. citizens, including a congressman, Reagan did -- nothing.

These presidents were not cowards. They simply would not go to war when no vital U.S. interest was at risk to justify a war. Yet, had George W. Bush prevailed and were Georgia in NATO, U.S. Marines could be fighting Russian troops over whose flag should fly over a province of 70,000 South Ossetians who prefer Russians to Georgians.

The arrogant folly of the architects of U.S. post-Cold War policy is today on display. By bringing three ex-Soviet republics into NATO, we have moved the U.S. red line for war from the Elbe almost to within artillery range of the old Leningrad.

Should America admit Ukraine into NATO, Yalta, vacation resort of the czars, will be a NATO port and Sevastopol, traditional home of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, will become a naval base for the U.S. Sixth Fleet. This is altogether a bridge too far.

And can we not understand how a Russian patriot like Vladimir Putin would be incensed by this U.S. encirclement after Russia shed its empire and sought our friendship? How would Andy Jackson have reacted to such crowding by the British Empire?

As of 1991, the oil of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan belonged to Moscow. Can we not understand why Putin would smolder as avaricious Yankees built pipelines to siphon the oil and gas of the Caspian Basin through breakaway Georgia to the West?

For a dozen years, Putin & Co. watched as U.S. agents helped to dump over regimes in Ukraine and Georgia that were friendly to Moscow.

If Cold War II is coming, who started it, if not us? Continued...

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About The Author
Pat Buchanan is a founding editor of The American Conservative magazine, and the author of many books including State of Emergency: The Third World Invasion and Conquest of America .
 
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Apollo
ApolloSpeaks:

"I appreciate your analysis, but I don't share your confidence. A badly weakened America could very easily change the equation. This would be a very opportune time for China to strike."

The PLA doesn't hold--yet--the balance in the Strait--that belongs for now to the ROC. While the US may be weak ground forces wise, it still has plenty of air and sea assets in the area--in Japan and in Guam. The US could have forces over the strait in a matter of hours and a move against Taiwan wouldn't be a suprise--it would take days or weeks to prepare the rear areas in Fujian, Zhejiang and Guangdong for the invasion--the US would be well aware of these moves.

If the US was to be involved it would be air and sea assets against PLAN surface ships moving on Taiwan and against the PLAAF aircraft--the J8s would be no match for the US fighters and perhaps hitting some targets in Fujian, etc used to support the invasion. There would be no US ground troops involved.

Even if it managed to make it to the beaches of western Taiwan, it wouldn't have enough forces to make sure the invasion would be a success. Under normal conditions a invasion force needs 3 attackers for every defender. Taiwan though--especially western Taiwan is heavily urbanized--what the US military calls operations in built up areas--here you need a 10:1 advantage. Most of Taiwan is also heavily mountainous. Simply put, the PLA can't put enough troops on Taiwan to win in the urbanized and mountainous environment which is why if Taiwan moved toward independence the PLA would be restricted to a blockade and sending in some of its 800 missiles in Fujian into Taiwan. This would give the US even more time to respond.

But again, as long as Ma and the KMT is in power China will do nothing against it.

Taiwan sends billions of NT across the Strait each year--billions China needs. China has bigger problems without having a war on its hands it doesn't need to fight.


Radar is useless?
It was reported on Thursday that Washington and Ankara had started secret consultations on deploying a U.S. radar in Turkey. If confirmed, this information could do more than complicate matters at the upcoming two-plus-two U.S.-Russia talks in Moscow slated for March 17-18, and will prove an additional source of tension in relations between the two countries.
===
They why is it good in Turkey?
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