Bet against the masses. Don't be the lemming. Be fearful
when others are greedy.
Follow these simple rules, and you'll probably be a
successful investor.
With those rules of thumb in mind, you'd be forgiven for
thinking now is a terrible time to buy stocks. The S&P
500 is up well over 50% since March, which is typically
consistent with a market flooded with uncontrollable
euphoria. Sure enough, many are preaching of an overvalued
market that's gotten way ahead of itself.
Oh really? Â
And maybe they're right. Sooner or later, they probably
will be. But perspective is in order: When stocks bottomed
out earlier this year, a better part of the investment
community thought the world was about to explode. Companies
like
Citigroup (NYSE: C) and
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) traded for
trivial valuations because they really, truly, were on the
verge of death.
Today, it looks like we've skirted most of those
calamitous end-of-the-world threats. It's still terrible,
mind you, just notÂ
as terrible as many thought. Naturally,
stocks have sprung back to levels that reflect a deep
recession, rather than a total
Mad Maxscenario.
This is an incredibly important distinction to make:
Markets haven't risen to levels that reflect exuberance, but
to levels consistent with a world that isn't about to fall
into mass insolvency.
This is evident by looking at the biggest winners over the
past few months. By and large, the stocks that have risen the
most are ones you wouldn't recommend to your worst enemy.
Have a look:
Company
Return Since March
Dollar Thrifty Automotive
2,353%
Avis Budget Group
2,092%
Pier 1 Imports
2,227%
Are these companies destined for greatness? Did they
announce a new blockbuster product? Are they the
nextÂ
Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) or
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), waiting to change the
way we live? Goodness, no. Not even close. Their huge gains
are simply a reflection that they'll live to see another
day.
In general, this is a rally built on canceling out past
pessimism. The biggest gains have been concentrated in very
low-quality companies that are simply being given a second
shot at life.
Â
Not all gains are created equal Â
The idea that a stock is overvalued after a massive
run-up is contingent on the idea that it was properly priced
to being with. But this was hardly the case when the market
bottomed in March. More importantly, some of the
highest-quality companies in the world have largely been left
out of the rally andÂ
still trade at attractive prices.
Here are three in particular:
Company
Return Since March
Forward P/E Ratio
H&R Block (NYSE: HRB)
(1.3)%
12.0
Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) Continued... |