Millions of investors chase Warren Buffett. Tens of
thousands attend
Berkshire Hathaway 's annual
shareholder meetings. Wealthy fans bid millions of dollars to
have lunch with him. His appearances on CNBC bring trading
floors to a halt. People want to know what he's thinking. Why
he's different. What secret has made him so much
moreÂ
successful than anyone else.
What's interesting -- and a little ironic -- is that
Buffett has never held back what his secret is. As he
recently told PBS:
I read a book, what is it, almost 60 years ago roughly,
calledÂ
The Intelligent Investor
 and I really learned all I needed to know
about investing from that book, and in particular chapters
8 and 20. ... I haven't changed anything since.
One book. Two chapters. Legendary
success. Â
You'd think such precisely guided advice would draw
more attention. Not only has Buffett filtered his success
down to one book, he has even listed theÂ
two specific chapters on which he built
his wisdom. He's making this almost embarrassingly easy for
us.
What bits of sage advice do these two chapters --
published in 1949 by Buffett's early mentor Ben Graham --
hold? Here are key points from each one.
Â
Chapter 8: The Investor and Market
Fluctuations Â
Markets go up. Markets go down. Most of us accept this
fact until we experience the latter, at which time we throw
up our hands and consider the whole thing a sham.
That kind of behavior is what Chapter 8 is all about:
dealing with market movements, and how fundamental they are
to investing success.
We have a tendency to become confident and invest the most
money after stocks have logged big gains, and vice versa --
selling in a panic after big drops. Two seconds of logical
thought will tell you this isn't rational. Yet we do it over
and over again.
Buffett built his success on exploiting the market's
movements, rather than following them with lemming-like
obedience. He bought stakes in companies likeÂ
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) and
Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) earlier this year
when the market wanted nothing to do with them. He sits on
his hands while companies likeÂ
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and
Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) go ever higher, ignoring
heckles about his technophobic incompetence.
It's trulyÂ
as simple as "being greedy when others are
fearful, and fearful when others are greedy." Here's how
Graham puts it in Chapter
8:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
       Â
The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his
shares, and at all other times he is free to disregard the
current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and
act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and
no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be
stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines
in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic
advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be
better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all,
for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him
by other persons' mistakes of judgment.
Chapter 20: Margin of Safety as the Central Concept
of Investment Â
Graham opens Chapter 20 with a potent message:
In the old legend the wise men finally boiled down the
history of mortal affairs into the single phrase, "This too
will pass." Confronted with a like challenge to distill the
secret of sound investment into three words, we venture the
motto, MARGIN OF SAFETY.
We have an overwhelming urge to expect certainty, but live
in a world that is anything but. Forward-looking projections
of a stock's value are based on assumptions, prone to wild
miscalculations and unforeseen events. And by prone, I mean
100% assured.
There's only one surefire solution to this: Pay
farÂ
less for stocks than your estimate of
value, leaving room for error. That's a margin of safety.
It's giving yourself room to be wrong, knowing that you
probably will be.
Think
Ford (NYSE: F) is worth $10 a share? Great.
Don't pay more than $5 for it. Think
UnitedHealth (NYSE: UNH) will earn $3 per
share next year? Wonderful. Set yourself up so you'll do fine
if it makes only $2 per share. There has to be a wide range
of acceptance between the projected and the potential.
One stock that might epitomize the
 opposite of a margin of
safety isÂ
Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT). On hopes, dreams,
and expectations that the housing crash may be petering out,
shares have nearly tripled since March. Continued... |