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Friday, July 10, 2009
Morgan Housel :: Townhall.com Columnist
Great Stocks the Market Fears
by Morgan Housel
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Poll
Will the Dems' health care Christmas Present to America be an improvement or detriment to our health care system?


(25%)

$26.78

12.2

17.4%

*****

Source: Motley Fool CAPS, Google Finance, and Yahoo! Finance, as of July 9.

A closer look at Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs is in a funny position: It's by far the best company in by far the worst industry. It's as if LeBron James were suddenly drafted to a prison basketball team. Would he still be considered great? Maybe, but he'd be lumped in with competitors whom people want to throttle. Nonetheless, he'd probably look greater on a prison team, if only because he'd be spectacularly dominant.

And that's what Goldman is -- a phenomenal bank wrapped up in the hullabaloo of failed competitors.

Now, I've been decidedly pessimistic on banks for a while now. It's an easy stance to take these days, I'm aware. So what's different about Goldman that makes it a worthwhile investment?

There are two types of financial crises. One is a solvency crisis, or when your assets don't cover your liabilities. The other is a liquidity crisis, in which you're wholly solvent but lacking readily available cash.

Goldman was always in the second batch. While banks such as Citigroup (NYSE: C) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) had legitimate solvency concerns, Goldman was purely strangled by a liquidity crisis. And don't kid yourself -- it was a crisis. There was a time last fall when it looked like Goldman might meet a quick demise. This was because its business model relies on regularly turning over large amounts of short-term debt. When the short-term debt market got nuked, Goldman could have run out of cash (a liquidity crisis) in no time flat.

But those days are gone for one reason: Goldman -- along with Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and American Express (NYSE: AXP) -- are now bank holding companies. As a bank holding company, Goldman can borrow from the Federal Reserve when it needs to, purging the prospect of another liquidity crisis. Goldman's position is further reinforced by noting that measures of liquidity strain are generally back to normal levels.

So Goldman isn't going to die. Wonderful. But how will it thrive? Here's how CAPS member Gmoney91 put it:

Goldman Sachs has many things going in its favor. First, it is in an industry where many of direct competitors have gone by the [wayside]. With little competition, Goldman can charge higher prices, while also gobbling up the business left by its former competitors' void.

It really is about that simple. That's why its recent earnings have been off the charts. Goldman has always been the top investment bank. Now it's the top investment bank, with considerably less competition. Even in a terrible economy, that's a wonderful position to occupy.

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About The Author

Morgan Housel is a Motley Fool contributor.

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