Depending on how you slice third-quarter results,
packaged-foods icon
Kraft (NYSE: KFT) turned in a performance
that was absolutely delectable, merely palatable, or
somewhere in between.
Starting with the top line, sales were soured by
unfavorable currency movements and lost business related to a
divestiture. All told, net revenue slipped 5.7% year over
year to $9.8 billion. That number was lower than analysts had
expected, and it also represented a sequential decline.
Organic sales (which exclude currency and restructuring
effects), conversely, were higher by 0.5%. However, some
analysts felt that even this metric was on the soft side. In
defense of Kraft, lower prices lopped roughly 1.6% off of
sales growth. And rather than some last-ditch attempt to
woo consumers through product discounts, the move
reflected the company's "adaptive pricing model" in its U.S.
Cheese business. In this case, that meant passing along
markedly lower dairy costs.
Skeptical? OK, but consider that operating income in
Kraft's U.S. Cheese segment climbed by double digits, even as
revenue fell. In other words, higher volume and improved
product mix more than offset what might be described as
misleading segment sales.
Moreover, total volume/product mix (Kraft reports these
metrics as a single figure) rose 0.7%, a substantial
improvement over the
prior quarter'spaltry 0.2% gain. That compares to a
similar volume performancefor cereal-and-snacks maker
Kellogg (NYSE: K); an
unsavory 4.3% dropat
H.J. Heinz (NYSE: HNZ) earlier in the year;
and 2% growth (excluding acquisitions) for the
outperforming
J.M. Smucker (NYSE: SJM). Since these
competitors report volume as a stand-alone metric, we're not
exactly comparing apples to apples, but it does appear that
Kraft is running somewhere in the middle of the pack. Absent
the effect of recently discontinued product lines, volume
growth would've been about twice the reported number, and
management expects strong volumes to boost revenue by 3% next
quarter.
Other Kraft businesses fared worse. As a whole, the North
American Foodservice segment -- responsible for roughly 10%
of 2008 net revenue -- was still weak. Management attributed
anemic results to low casual-dining traffic. Certainly, the
restaurant industry slumpis no secret to
Brinker International (NYSE: EAT)
shareholders, even if select names such as
Buffalo Wild Wings (Nasdaq: BWLD) have
defied the recession.
I know, I know, let's hurry up and get to the bottom line.
At first, earnings-per-share growth looks phenomenal, leaping
to $0.55 from $0.34 in the year-ago period. However, only
$0.09 per share of that increase owed to operating gains,
with the remainder stemming from items such as hedging
activities, lower taxes, and restructuring charges.
Ultimately, the core business grew EPS by a
still-impressive 26.5%. But investors might consider that a
lower cost of goods sold -- the direct cost of producing
finished products -- pitched in $0.56 per share. No doubt a
now-completed restructuring program contributed toward
production efficiencies, but it's prudent to wonder to what
degree lower commodity prices boosted gross margin. In the
future, commodity-driven gains might not be repeatable.
Limited by U.K. law, management couldn't say much about
its
ongoing pursuitof leading global confectioner
Cadbury (NYSE: CBY). However, Kraft did say
that it will be disciplined about any potential acquisition,
giving priority to the company's investment-grade credit
rating and the preservation of its dividend.
At a forward P/E of 12.5, shares might be cheap. However,
investors who aren't willing to stomach possible
acquisition-related pains could do best to wait on the
sidelines.
This article was originally published as
Kraft: Dig In or Move On?on
Fool.com
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