I
last recommendedthat Fools take a look at
consumer-staples company
Clorox (NYSE: CLX) back in June. Shares are
up about 7% since then, lagging the S&P 500's
double-digit advance. Yet that underperformance, combined
with a
depressed valuation, makes Clorox one of a shrinking
number of historically steady stocks that still has room for
upside surprise.
As Exhibit A, I submit the company's fiscal-2010
first-quarter results. Registering $1.4 billion, sales
declined 1% versus brisk top-line growth in the year-ago
period. Sequentially, sales flopped almost 7%. Unfavorable
product mix and currency rates, along with a weak market for
the company's premium-priced Glad-brand storage and trash
bags, contributed to the humdrum performance.
Earnings per share, however, told a vastly different
story. Powered by lower commodity costs, annual efficiency
initiatives, and price increases, EPS leapt from $0.90 in the
fiscal-2009 quarter to $1.11. Yep, that's a 23% gain. In
addition, management said that swine-flu fears -- which
boosted sales of the namesake line of household disinfectants
-- helped fatten the company's profit.
That puts Clorox in the company of other H1N1
beneficiaries, which run the gamut from
vaccine-makers
Novartis (NYSE: NVS),
sanofi-aventis (NYSE: SNY), and
AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN), to
drugstore
Walgreen (NYSE: WAG) and face-mask
manufacturer
3M (NYSE: MMM). Sudden business spikes are
hardly a bad thing, but how long can these companies continue
to ride high on the hog?
In the case of Clorox, the market's hardly awash in
enthusiasm. By the close of trading, shares had risen less
than a third of a percent in response to quarterly results.
That compares to a 1.6% daily gain for
Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL) stock following
the oral- and household-care company's
recent quarterly report, even though EPS and gross-margin
growth were hardly the stuff of the bleach king. What's more,
Colgate-Palmolive trades at a 16.3 forward P/E to Clorox's
12.9.
What gives?
I can't divine Mr. Market's exact motivations (although
you'll be the first to know should I develop that unique
ability), but I'd say that it comes down to product exposure.
In fiscal 2009, the cat litter, laundry, charcoal, and trash
bag categories pitched in 43% of Clorox's net sales. However,
compared to other areas of the company's portfolio, it's
these very categories that are most susceptible to consumer
trade-down and private label penetration.
That vulnerability came through in Clorox's recent
results: Management informed conference-call listeners that
overall company market share was down slightly for the
quarter, and cited particular challenges in the Glad and
laundry businesses.
Investors, it appears, remain spooked, even as the company
raised full-year EPS guidance from a range of $4.00-$4.15 to
$4.05-$4.20. Continued... |