Much like consumers who eagerly dive into a bag of fast
food, only to regret it later, investors who reach for
Yum! Brands ' (NYSE: YUM) based on recent
quarterly results may later bemoan their impulse
purchase.Â
The parent company of quick-serve eateries such as KFC,
Long John Silver's, and Pizza Hut, Yum! Brands treated
investors to what initially appear to be compelling results.
Global operating profit grew 15%, with China and the U.S.
leading the gains. Earnings per share, meanwhile, registered
$0.69 -- ahead of analyst estimates -- marking a 19% increase
from the year-ago $0.58. If that makes you feel like slamming
down a celebratory gordita, be advised that what follows
could put you off your lunch.
In local currency, worldwide system sales were flat. Sales
growth in the China and International segments owed
exclusively to new store openings; same-store sales were
unchanged, indicating that even consumers in
rapidly recovering economiesare playing it cautious.
Meanwhile, the U.S. business slipped badly: Same-store sales
were down 6%, and Pizza Hut saw an ulcerous 13% sales
decline. In part, that's likely the result of U.S. consumers
eating at home more often;
Kraft (NYSE: KFT), for instance, reported
that second-quarter sales of its frozen DiGiorno pizza
products were up by roughly 20%.
At this point, I suspect it's becoming clear that Yum!
Brands' EPS beat hinged on lower year-over-year costs.
Recurring expenses, including food and paper, declined 5.8%.
That may not seem like much, but the savings work out to
$0.30 per share. Said differently, in the absence of
favorable commodity prices and cost cuts, profit would have
plummeted. Now, investors can probably expect some of the
savings to continue, but I wouldn't want
to be around if -- or perhaps
when-- rising commodity costs meet sluggish
same-store sales.
Yum! nudged up its earnings forecast by $0.04, and it now
expects 12% year-over-year earnings growth before one-time
items. Its shares' current 14.6 forward P/E values the
company below the pricier fare of
Cheesecake Factory (Nasdaq: CAKE) and
Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX), but above
Burger King (NYSE: BKC) and
McDonald's (NYSE: MCD). In broad strokes,
that looks completely wrong. Going forward, I'd wager on the
strength of fast food versus fancier eats, but I'd also give
more credit to McDonald's, where same-store sales have been
chugging along just fine. Â
Granted, Yum! Brands' significant China presence is
attractive. I'd be more positive on the company if same-store
sales in the region had made a better showing. But there are
other ways to get your China fix. For instance, why not
consider food trends from the farming and production
perspective, where China-based fertilizer maker
Yonge International (Nasdaq: YONG) appears
worth a look?
Alternatively, head on over to
Motley Fool Global Gains
: The analyst team is constantly scouring the globe in
search of promising companies that won't
leave you with post-investment indigestion.
Grab a forkful of related Foolishness:
Spitting Out Yum! Brands
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This article was originally published as
Yum! Brands Serves Up Unsavory Quarteron
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