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Friday, September 25, 2009
Mike Pienciak :: Townhall.com Columnist
General Mills: Lucky and Charmed
by Mike Pienciak
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With bang-up quarterly results pinned to its chest, General Mills (NYSE: GIS) is currently standing atop the packaged-foods industry. Its double-digit gains in operating profit and earnings per share owe partially to lower commodity costs, but smart management once again played a key role -- supporting my upbeat view of the company's long-term prospects.

It may look disappointing that revenue for first-quarter fiscal 2010 rose only 1% to $3.52 billion. But the results fill out when we consider that net sales in the year-ago period shot up 14%, making for a difficult comparison. The U.S. retail segment -- the company's largest division, and a standout performer this quarter -- enjoyed a sales gain of 6%, driven by increased consumer demand. The Pillsbury line posted particularly strong sales growth, followed by Big G cereals and Yoplait yogurt products. Also, management cited strong relationships with its retail partners, including its largest customer, Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT).

Earnings per share, meanwhile, came in at $1.25, up a whopping 58% and exceeding management's expectations. Excluding the effects of adjustments in the recently completed and year-ago periods, EPS rose a still-impressive 33%.

As previously mentioned, lower commodity costs -- the same trend that's buffeting U.S. farmers and fertilizer names PotashCorp (NYSE: POT) and Agrium (NYSE: AGU) -- provided an automatic margins boost. However, higher volumes -- a tribute to a strong product portfolio -- drove plant efficiencies, and favorable product mix also strengthened the bottom line. Furthermore, as part of a proactive, companywide focus on margins, management was able to leverage logistics upgrades to reduce fuel usage, even as business ran hotter. It's exactly this kind of vigilance that should help the company outperform when corn, wheat, and other commodities retake an upward trajectory.

The quarter did have some soggy spots, though. The company's organics business, which includes the Cascadian Farm and Muir Glen brands, saw sales fall 5%. With private-label and store brands muscling in on the organic front, the drop-off is unsurprising. Still, if Whole Foods ' (NYSE: WFMI) recently improved performanceis any indication, the slump may not last. But if not in organics, then increased competition may arise in the cereal business: General Mills' management speculated that weakness in Ralcorp 's (NYSE: RAH) Post brand cereals might only be temporary, which means that Big G had better eat its Wheaties.

Ultimately, I'm not that worried. General Mills has a number of recent product innovations to provide momentum, including a low-calorie probiotic yogurt, which will likely go head-to-head with Danone 's (OTC: DANOY) DanActive yogurt. Plus, the earnings beat is allowing management to plow additional cash into an already bulked-up marketing program.

As for the remainder of the year, management pegged revised EPS guidance at $4.40 to $4.45 (excluding any adjustments), up from the earlier expectation of $4.20 to $4.25. Based on a $63 share price, that puts the current fiscal year P/E at roughly 14.3 -- tasty eating, I'd say.

Related Foolishness:

Consumers Chow Down on General Mills Put This Stock in Your Shopping Cart Will Competitors Keep Squeezing Heinz?

This article was originally published as General Mills: Lucky and Charmedon Fool.com

Copyright © 2009 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved.

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