Townhall.com, Where Your Opinion Counts
Talk Radio:   Bill Bennett   Mike Gallagher   Dennis Prager   Michael Medved   Hugh Hewitt   
BREAKING NEWS  LeftArrow - Townhall.com : Conservative, Political, Republican   RightArrow - Townhall.com : Conservative, Political, Republican  
Columns, funnies & more in your inbox!
  • Check the boxes and send us your email address to receveive your free newsletter
  • Your daily must-read of conservative columns, cartoons and news. Coulter, Sowell, Krauthammer and more.
  • Townhall.com’s weekly inside scoop on what’s happening behind the scenes in the world of politics. When news breaks, we report.
  • Signup to receive the latest daily Townhall cartoons
Monday, September 21, 2009
Mike Pienciak :: Townhall.com Columnist
2 Big Reasons to Loathe Campbell
by Mike Pienciak
Vote on It:
Average Vote:
[+] Text [-]
 
 
Poll
Was the Copenhagen Global Warming Summit Walk-Out a Win for the U.S.?


Consumer stocks are now as risky as they've ever been. Unemployment's historically high, consumers are spooked, and subpar earnings abound as companies pay the price for lost competitive advantage or fiscal irresponsibility. But tough times can offer investors the best chance to buy stocks. 

Even if stock prices are low, investors still need to be careful.  Many companies simply won't survive the recession in their current form. And even if you love an investment, it's always Foolish to play devil's advocate, probing for its potential weak spots. To keep you and your portfolio ready for anything, I've highlighted two reasons to loathe Campbell (NYSE: CPB).

Global shelf space
Last week, I warmed up a pot of lovefor Campbell, naming the iconic soup and sauce maker a consistent performer for uncertain times. In this follow-up profile, I'll do my darnedest to sour your appetite for shares.

From in-store displays and updated packaging, to dinnertime commercials and Sunday coupons, everyday shoppers know that packaged-foods companies are locked in constant competition. And while regularly rebranding and rolling out new products is a perfectly acceptable business strategy, it's a daily battle that by definition has losers. Abroad, however, worldwide patterns of population and economic growth promise a megatrend from which the entire industry can profit.

But with its emerging marketsexposure representing less than 1% of net sales, Campbell has a crumb, while companies such as Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Unilever (NYSE: UL), H.J. Heinz (NYSE: HNZ), and PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) are taking the cake. Sure, management has ambitious plans to expand into Russia and China. But from a shareholder perspective, waiting for that push to show meaningfully in overall results may feel like watching the proverbial pot that never boils. 

Higher prices trouble consumers
If Campbell's undernourished geographic footprint hasn't stirred your antipathy, perhaps its recent volume performance will. Wet soup as a category has benefitted from recession-induced penny pinching, but Campbell's soup business saw a 1.8% volume decline for the 12 months ended April 2009, versus a 1.7% gain for the overall category. The cause? Campbell's higher prices -- necessitated by cost inflation -- drove consumers toward cheaper private-label products.

In coming quarters, Campbell's extensive product innovations should bring in new business from consumers who are cooking at home more often, helping to replace volume lost from longtime customers who are trading down. But when you have the option to buy a company such as J.M. Smucker (NYSE: SJM), which is already enjoying volume growth, Campbell looks like a lousy laggard indeed.

What do you think?
We've made our Foolish case on Campbell -- now it's your turn. Do you loathe Campbell? Love it? Share your comments below.

A hearty bowl of further Foolishness:

another round of pain. This food company's a sweet takeover target. Chow downon growth names.

This article was originally published as 2 Big Reasons to Loathe Campbellon Fool.com

Copyright © 2009 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved.

Share:
Vote on It:
Average Vote:
 
About The Author
Sign Up to Post Your CommentsSign Up to Post Your Comments
If you are already registered, click here to login. Otherwise, please take a few seconds to register with Townhall.com. Once you sign up, you’ll be able to post your comments immediately, use the action center, get podcasts, and more!
Note: Fields marked with a red asterisk (*) are required.
Salutation:
First Name:
*
Last Name:
*
Email:
*
Nickname:
*
Note: Nick name will be shown when you post comments.
Address 1:
*
Address 2:
City:
*
State:
*
Zip:
*
Phone:
      
Your daily must-read of conservative columns, cartoons and news. Coulter, Sowell, Krauthammer and more.
(Bi-Weekly) We highlight the best opportunities from our partners for surveys, action items and more.