Given the actual, undeniable strength of the Republican candidates, then why do so many GOP activists and insiders sound so dispirited about the choices before us?
There are three basic reasons that this field looks much worse than it is:
1.THE STATURE GAP: In all recent nomination fights, Republicans have possessed one obvious and overwhelming frontrunner: Nixon in ’68 and ’72, Ford in ’76, Reagan in ’80 and ’84, George H.W. Bush in ’88 and ’92, Dole in ’96, and the younger Bush in 2000 and 2004. Half of these dominant figures (Nixon, Ford, and the first Bush) have been Vice Presidents of the United States while the other three also possessed formidable credentials – Governor of California and previous Presidential candidate (Reagan), Senate Majority Leader and previous candidate (Dole), and Governor of Texas and son of a former President (the second Bush).
This time there’s no over-shadowing “big guy” in the GOP Presidential race---no well known front-runner to make the whole field look more credible. Hillary Clinton shows the way that a strong, household name front-runner can even make rivals look bigger and more significant: she’s so far in the lead, and so familiar to every American, that Hillary vs. Obama quite naturally sounds like more of an epic battle royal (despite the untested nature of both candidates in national campaigns) than, say, Rudy vs. Romney. With no one Republican emerging from the pack, it makes it harder to visualize any of the fiercely competing rivals actually measuring up to the Presidency.
2. DEMS ARE MORE EXCITED ABOUT THEIR CANDIDATES. It’s not just surging optimism based on their Congressional takeover in ’06: the Democrats also benefit from the novelty factor in their nomination race. Among their candidates they love to highlight the first serious female candidate, the first serious black candidate, the first serious Latino candidate, and the first ever aging Zen loon-dog from Alaska. In response, the Republicans can boast the first Mormon, and the first twice-divorced Italian-American.
Obviously, the Democratic “firsts” (okay, all except Mike Gravel) sound more thrilling to the press and public. Part of the GOP discomfort with our candidates involves a sense of envy, either openly acknowledged or sometimes unconscious: we look over to the other party and see their contenders raising more money and drawing far more positive press (Democrats always do). No wonder we feel less than thrilled as the race begins to shape up.
3. TOO MANY INDIANS. The sheer size of the Republican field keeps any one contender from emerging into the sunlight and makes all the competitors look smaller and less imposing than they should. The Democratic race has already taken clear shape: it will pit Hillary against Obama until one of them (almost certainly Obama) abandons the field. Other candidates, including Con Edwards and Bill Richardson, look increasingly like also-rans (and Vice Presidential possibilities). Among Republicans, however, Rudy, Romney and Thompson all remain obviously competitive, with outside chances (still) for McCain and Huckabee (if they can solve their fundraising problems).
In addition there are the yipping pups (Hunter, Brownback, Tancredo, Paul) who prevent any of the Big Dogs from looking fierce and formidable. They have no more chance of winning the nomination than former governors Jim Gilmore and Tommy Thompson, who already dropped out. And every time the distraction candidates appear alongside serious contenders, it makes them all look less significant – more like the proverbial Nine Dwarves. With too many Indians in their Presidential tribe, the Republicans face a tougher time settling on a chief.
Considered on a rational, dispassionate basis, none of these problems should bring about permanent crippling of GOP prospects in the general election. Each of the difficulties – the stature gap, the greater Democratic excitement, and the confusing plethora of contenders -- should sort itself out as the race proceeds, and some excitement begins to build while distraction candidates fall away (or else go off to the fringe-party fate that some of them seem to crave).
Instead of whining about the low quality of the current candidate collection, Republicans ought to take a serious look at all of these formidable (if flawed) contenders, giving at least as much attention to their significant strengths as to their much-discussed weaknesses. Any of the Big Five – Rudy, Romney, Thompson, McCain, and Huckabee—could plausibly beat Hillary and recent polling shows a sharply competitive race.
Republicans can win that competition if we place our contenders in an appropriate context and recognize that this may comprise the best, not the worst, assemblage of Presidential contenders we’ve seen in recent years. |