The more I think about Mike Huckabee’s stunning 18% showing at the Iowa straw poll the more I’m persuaded that he could be the exciting, unifying conservative standard bearer the GOP base has been craving.

Forget about Fred Thompson--- his long delay in entering the race makes him look increasingly like the Mario Cuomo of the Republican Party. Remember when the New York Governor dithered endlessly about announcing his candidacy in 1992? At the time, he seemed to be trying out a new slogan: “A Mind is a terrible thing…. To make Up.” As an actor, Fred Thompson might like to take a crack at playing Hamlet, but the indecision bit doesn’t work well for a Presidential contender.

Moreover, his wife Jeri (described by the New York Times as his much-younger “trophy wife”) has already won a reputation as a controversial “dragon lady” for firing and intimidating staff on his non-campaign. Her glamorous presence seems to re-enforce Thompson’s Hollywood connections, and that’s not a great thing for a Republican candidate.

Moreover, Thompson’s campaign speeches so far have been distinctly underwhelming in their impact, showing none of the folksiness and force of his TV character Arthur Branch or his brief radio commentaries, for that matter.

I challenge any die hard Fred Heads to watch tape of Thompson addressing a live audience and then to contrast it with tape of Huckabee working a crowd – or performing at one of the televised debates. There’s no comparison: Huckabee spontaneously deploys the warmth, humor, gift of gab, accessibility and kindness that we haven’t seen in a GOP Presidential contender since Reagan. He comes across as a regular guy who cares about other regular guys. He also possesses a rare ability to craft catchy phrases that connect with people. As he told audiences in Iowa, “One of the things I think I’ve brought to the process is unapologetically I’m a conservative – but I’m not mad at anybody over it.”

And it’s tough for anyone, from any faction in the party, to feel mad at Mike Huckabee.

Each of the other front-runners have managed to tick off some substantial segment of their fellow Republicans: McCain for his support of campaign finance restrictions and immigration reform, as well as his opposition to Bush tax cuts; Giuliani for his moderate positions on social issues like guns and abortion and his complicated and much-too-colorful personal life; Romney for his slick shifts in position on a range of issues and (unfairly) for his devout commitment to a controversial church. It’s true that some militant secularists will feel uncomfortable with Huckabee’s fervent Christianity and his background as a highly successful Baptist pastor, but those who are put off by his genial brand of religiosity are probably unavailable as GOP voters in any event.

Aside from his likely ability to unify the party, two other factors argue for Huckabee as the strongest possible GOP standard bearer.

First, his distinctly blue-collar, proudly working class background will help to destroy the notion that Republicans are the party of Wall Street and the country club. Mitt Romney may be worth $250 million and is the son of a governor, John McCain’s the son (and grandson) of high ranking admirals, but Huckabee’s the first member of his family ever to graduate from high school. Obama and Romney boast degrees from Harvard, Hillary went to Wellesley and Yale, and McCain graduated (barely) from Annapolis, while Huckabee earned his degree (in two-and-a-half years) from Ouachita Baptist University. During reconstruction on the Arkansas governor’s mansion, the Huckabees (he’s been married to his high school sweetheart for 33 years) lived proudly in a trailer to save the taxpayers money. And speaking of double-wides…. his recent loss of 110 pounds (and completion of numerous grueling marathons) helps him connect with the American majority that fights the daily battle of the bulge. After freakishly fit contenders like the Skull-and-Bones duo Bush and Kerry, it’s refreshing to consider a candidate who’s so much more like the rest of us. The old Democratic class warfare tactics simply won’t work against Huckabee—his personal style and background make it impossible to associate him with some privileged elite.

The second big advantage of a Huckabee nomination involves his ability to suppress any third party vote on the right. A recent analysis by the Rasmussen polling operation suggests that in the likely event that Hillary becomes the Democratic candidate we’re in for another extremely close election. The American people have already largely made up their minds about Senator Clinton --- her name produces very few responses of “undecided” or “don’t know.” Unless she commits some major gaffe after getting the nomination, her vote total won’t fall below 45%, and stands little chance of rising above 50%. This means that the election – like those of ’92, ’96, and 2000 – will almost certainly produce a President with a popular vote minority, with fringe party candidates playing a decisive role. In 2000, Ralph Nader on the left drew nearly three times as many votes as Pat Buchanan on the right; without the Nader factor, Al Gore would have won a clear-cut victory no matter how the votes were counted. In 2008, there will definitely be more third and fourth party candidates – former Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney (or Nader again) on the left, and Alan Keyes or Minuteman Jim Gilchrist or, conceivably, Tom Tancredo on the right. If Rudy Giuliani became Republican standard bearer, an angry right-winger could draw 3% or more of the vote and easily tilt the election toward Hillary. With a Huckabee candidacy, on the other hand, a self-righteous anti-abortion, anti-immigration, anti-globalism fringe campaign becomes less powerful (and less necessary, for that matter). Those who worry that international conspirators are subverting American sovereignty as part of some CFR or Neo-Con conspiracy will feel far less fearful of Huckabee than of any other major candidate. Continued...