5. Immigration. Many conservatives dislike the Bush approach to immigration, with its calls for a guest worker program and earned legalization for some of the illegals already here. Nevertheless, the President and Congressional Republicans did manage to pass “enforcement first” legislation with provisions for workplace penalties and construction of 700 miles of border fence. The Democrats have indicated they will compensate for this common sense victory with a sweeping, overly-lenient, unconditional amnesty proposal far beyond anything authorized by Bush (or even McCain). Immigration reform will almost surely clear Congress at some point, in some form, in the next two years. Why would anyone on the right believe that in working with a Democratic House and Senate, Bush would come up with a stronger immigration bill than he would in working with his fellow Republicans—who are much less hospitable to the “open borders” crowd?

6. Framing the Debate. It’s true that public opinion shapes elections, but elections also shape public opinion. Consider the impact of the strong showing by religious conservatives in 2004: for the last two years, Democrats have been trying to figure out how to make themselves sound more “spiritual” while commentators of every stripe pay new attention to values voters. If, on the other hand, Dems win a sweeping triumph on November 7th, the media will trumpet the long-awaited demise of the era of conservative dominance, proclaiming a new age of secular enlightenment, tolerance, multiculturalism, peace, partying and rock n’ roll. If conservatives feel discouraged now, try to imagine the paralyzing impact on right wing activism of cover stories and media analysis heralding the nationwide defeat of traditional, family friendly politics. There is, very simply, no example in all American history of advocates who managed to strengthen their cause or advance their ideas by losing a high-profile, watershed election.

7. Losing Control of the Party. When a political party gets thrashed at the polls, it never moves in a rightward (or leftward) direction: it inevitable moves to the center. When Goldwater found himself swamped by Lyndon Johnson in ’64, the GOP didn’t go back to strong conservative principles: it embraced the “centrist” (and deal cutter) Richard Nixon. Similarly, the McGovern disaster of ’72, temporarily discouraged the leftist tendencies among Democrats, as they turned to the self-proclaimed moderate Jimmy Carter. It’s illogical to expect that retreat for today’s conservative-dominated GOP would bring a more conservative party orientation: look for new strength to the mushy middle of the party that would blame the stridency of right wingers (particularly the religious right) for the disaster.

8. Losing Structural Advantages. One of the fundamental truths of American politics is that it’s always easier to defend Senate and House seats than it is to knock off incumbents. Particularly in today’s furiously competitive environment, incumbency confers countless financial and tactical advantages; the majority party starts each battle for Congressional control with significant resources that the challengers can’t match. It is always easier to maintain a majority – no matter how narrow – than it is to dislodge one. That’s why Republicans have managed to survive various ups and downs while maintaining control of the House for 12 years; and Democrats kept their House control for an uninterrupted 40 years before that. It’s a naïve fantasy to suggest that it’s a safe bet that after two years running the House of Representatives (and/or the Senate), the Democrats will get driven from power. It’s far more likely that they’d hang on for several more election cycles, while conferring huge (perhaps decisive) advantages to their Presidential candidate (Hillary? Obama? Kerry?) in 2008 and beyond.

The considerations listed above deserve attention for anyone still grousing about the many shortcomings of Denny Hastert and Bill Frist and George W. Bush. It’s easy to see that our guys aren’t perfect – but this election isn’t about suitability for Rushmore. It’s about maintaining some chance for conservative ideas and policies to prevail at a time of danger and challenge to the nation. Anyone who believes that liberal approaches would work better will no doubt vote Democratic, and that’s appropriate. But for those of us who understand the importance of conservative thinking, and who would like to see that thinking more effectively applied in the next two years, there’s no excuse for advocating unilateral disarmament and surrender, handing power to some of the worst elements on the political scene.

Those who advocate non-participation in this crucial election don’t just call for conservative punishment and defeat. Whether they like it or not, they pave the way for leftist victory. Frankly, America deserves better.