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Friday, January 30, 2009
Michael Gerson :: Townhall.com Columnist
The Fallacy of the Eventual Answer
by Michael Gerson
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WASHINGTON -- Israel's recent operations in Gaza began in an atmosphere of criticism, including the widespread prediction that the use of force wouldn't "solve anything." Since, in this view, a negotiated peace is the only eventual answer to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, it is a mistake for Israel to engage its enemies in an endless cycle of violence. Hamas in particular would only be strengthened.

This augury of futility was wrong. Israeli forces, responding to an intolerable provocation, inflicted lopsided casualties on Hamas, which displayed a discrediting combination of cowardice and brutality. Hamas fighters used civilians as shields instead of shielding civilians -- and some Palestinians seemed to resent it. Hamas leaders hid in the basements of hospitals while ordering public executions for Palestinian rivals, acting more like members of a criminal gang than a nationalist movement. Allies such as Iran, Syria and Hezbollah provided little practical help to Hamas, probably calculating that its rocket campaign against Israel was suicidal or at least foolishly premature. The international boycott against Hamas is holding. And the scale of missile attacks on Israeli citizens has been dramatically reduced.

"This hasn't solved the problem," Gen. Giora Eiland, a former Israeli national security adviser, told me. "But it has introduced a completely different cost calculation for Hamas." The launching of Hamas rockets against civilians now has a predictable price -- the essence of deterrence. The smuggling of weapons to Gaza through Egypt remains a challenge. But Hamas leaders are currently occupied, Eiland argues, "not just rebuilding buildings, but rebuilding their political standing and legitimacy." And this makes Hamas more likely to keep a cease-fire.

While Israel's military operations didn't accomplish everything, they also didn't accomplish nothing. But the "force doesn't solve anything" argument runs so deep for some that real-world outcomes matter little. Military action by Israel is always counterproductive, because Israel must eventually negotiate with its most bitter enemies. The sooner the better.

Call it the Fallacy of the Eventual Answer. It is true that the solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is two states living side by side in peace. But it is false to say that the fight against terrorists and the security of Israel have no part in achieving that goal.

Peace negotiations generally have preconditions, including the security of both parties. If Israeli citizens are convinced that the "peace process" really means impunity for terrorists who attack them, Israel will want no part of that process. If Hamas leaders remain confident in their impunity -- convinced that their most effective strategy is to kill Israeli citizens while hiding behind their own -- they will not be in the proper mood for meaningful negotiations either. Recent military operations have addressed some of Israel's justified fears and, perhaps, tamed some of Hamas' murderous arrogance.

According to Daniel Schueftan, a senior research fellow at the University of Haifa, Israel faces a "strategic challenge -- a civilian population that lives a few miles from terrorists -- for which we don't have a strategic solution. But we have found some operational answers. In Defensive Shield (the building of Israel's security wall), we brought down suicide bombings by 95 percent, exclusively with coercive force, not politics."

"It is a fairy tale," he says, "to say there are no answers through coercive force. The only things in life that have solutions are crossword puzzles. We have not solutions, but answers -- operational answers that reduce terror to a tolerable level. It is what we do with crime. It is what we do with terrorism."

Would peace negotiations be even a remote possibility if Israel were still besieged by suicide bombers, leaving bloodstains and bitterness at Israeli cafes? So the ugly but effective security wall actually served a purpose in peace negotiations. The same can be said of the establishment of deterrence through the Gaza offensive.

It is amazing that this argument remains an argument, especially after America's experience with the surge in Iraq. For years, military and diplomatic experts have argued that the ultimate solution is Iraqi political reconciliation rather than military force. Which was true, eventually. But the achievement of security through force, it turns out, was a precondition for the process of reconciliation to move forward. The Fallacy of the Eventual Answer actually delayed the peace.

We can try to imagine a world of diplomats without soldiers, but it would be no more peaceful than a society of therapists without policemen. Coercion is not the ultimate source of peace -- but peace is sometimes unachievable without it.

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About The Author
Michael Gerson writes a twice-weekly column for The Post on issues that include politics, global health, development, religion and foreign policy. Michael Gerson is the author of the book "Heroic Conservatism" and a contributor to Newsweek magazine.
 
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Wrong again, Gerson
A two-state solution is not the right or eventual answer. It is the wrong answer. The Palestinians are turds who want a state for themselves so that they can have a formal army with conventional weapons with which to attack Israel more effectively, as opposed to taking potshots at them like they are now.

And fighting terrorists and the security of Israel are not the means to such an atrocious end, or any end, for that matter. They are ends in themselves.

No wonder Bush was such a failure with scum like you advising him.

Wendy
You're on the right track. A peaceful two-state solution isn't the eventual answer. In fact, it was the first answer -- Israel and Jordan -- and it's been ignored for more than 60 years, but no Arab would have any part of it. Consequently, a short-term refugee resettlement problem has become a bloody long-term crisis that continually threatens to engulf the world.

Plan B is a pacified multi-state solution, which is pretty much what they're stumbling toward. The refugees can continue to play at being an independent country (or two -- it's hard to tell) if they please. They can petition to join Jordan or Egypt. They can relocate to any place that will have them. They can call themselves Yetis. Israel has little choice but to fortify its borders, cut off all traffic with them, and retaliate against every outrage massively until they calm down. It's not ideal, but what is?

OOPS
My preceding post should've read ". . .and it's been ignored for more than 60 years; no Arab would have any part of it." Me are not edit so good this early.

Mr. Gerson
I am simply amazed at the naivette of your post. Jerusalem must NEVER be divided. Israel should never have followed the 'land for peace' agenda the past several years.

Hamas, Hizbolah, not any other Palestinian wants their own state. They could have had that years ago.

They want to WIPE OUT Israel. They want every Jew DEAD.

Bini Netanyahu will win the Israeli election on February 10. Thankfully Israel will then have a strong hand again.

Terrorists like the Palestians only understand one thing -- FORCE.

Are there peaceful Palestians -- YES. However, they elect thugs and this is what they get.

You sir, certainly do not understand anything about the Israeli plight. Would you sit there where you live and tolerate bombs landing in your yard or in your driveway???

I Don't Get It
Jerusalem has been divided, rather splintered for a long time now. Consider these facts: 1) Jerusalem/East Jerusalem. 2) The Dome of the Rock and al-Aqsa Mosque on the Temple Mount; access and security up the Mount provided by Israels, at the Dome and the Mosque by Palestinians. 3)The various quarters of both Old Jerusalem and more modern Jerusalem. 4) So also many other cities in Israel and the whole tiny country about the size of NJ. A few examples: Acre, Bethlehem, Hebron, Jericho, Joppa/Tel Aviv, and the whole country into Israel, the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
With the latter and Hamas plus other Islamic jihadists against the Palestinian Authority and former PLO how is a two-state solution possible? Isn't a three-state solution the only way now since Palestine refused to establish a state in 1948 as provided in UN Resolution 181 of 1947?
As Mark Twain said, "If you don't read newspapers your are uninformed. If you do you are misinformed." There is only one way to know - go see for yourself. Don't be afraid, just be judicious, cautious as you must be traveling in your homeland. The Israeli Jews, Arabs, Muslims, Palestinians, Christians, Druze and others want you to visit and talk with them. Except for the small minority of criminal Islamic jihadists they all live, work, play, got to school, marry and interact together in other words in peace and harmony.
Unbelieveable isn't it? Go see.
I know I get it better than the diplomats, politicians, pundits and other interferers; you will too when you go see.

The Palis have a state -
it is called JORDAN but even the Jordanians grew sick of them.

Memorable Quote
This is an excellent essay. The last paragraph is a classic. It perfectly incapsulates why anti-war activists often do not advance the cause of peace.

For Alice @ 13:37
A little additional factoid: Jordan actually was more tolerant of them than any other nation would have been, given the ordering by self-appointed "Palestinian" leader at the time Haj-amin Husseini (mentor of Arafat, who designated the Egyptian as his successor) of the murder of Hussein's grandfather Abdullah (1951, AT al-Aqsa masjid); the assassins also fired at Hussein (shows me that Husseini probably thought to become Sultan of Jordan then) but failed.

For Paleocon @ 06:22, a link to a 2008/07/28 WND editorial by Joseph Farah (note: Farah DID make one mistake in the article in the last paragraph, "The Palestinian Arab group is the only one in the world not absorbed or integrated into their own people's lands", for which I emailed him a historical correction he acknowledged as historically-accurate) sums it up: Arab "leaders" created the 1948 crisis, and continue to fester it.

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId= 70765

Israel
Why is it that Israel is always the one to get the brundt of criticism. It is Hamas that starts the fighting and Israel needs to protect itself; then they are chided for taking a stand to protect its citizens. There hasn't been an answer to this grave situation for years and I believe when Netanyahu becomes Israels leader things will move more swiftly to a conclusion.

Would We tolerate it?
I often wonder what those who criticize Israel would suggest if a bunch of terrorists took over a Mexican or Canadian border town and started lobbing missiles into US cities and sending suicide bombers to kill innocent civilians. Would we show the “patience” we demand of the Israelis or would we go over there and stop the problem? Imagine decades of San Diego or Detroit being targeted for daily rocket attacks, how long would WE tolerate it?
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